17 Expert Picks
Credit to Erick Fedde who has pitched well to start the season, however I like fading him in this spot coming off a quality start where Fedde went 8.1 IP, accrued 9 Ks/0 BBs, and threw a whopping 108 pitches (the most since June of 2022). Fedde gets to face a mediocre Cardinals lineup, however this looks like a matchup where they can have success.
As noted on Friday, the Orioles at short prices are going to get our attention this season. Even a rain delay couldn't slow the Birds last night as Cole Irvin stretched his scoreless innings streak to 20 2/3 and Baltimore moved to an AL-best 9-4 on the road by beating the Reds in a rematch of the 1970 World Series. John Means, who has plenty of experience in the O's rotation, has been recalled and will start in place of the injured Grayson Rodriguez, while the Reds' Andrew Abbott is off of a rough start in Texas, giving up a pair of homers in last Sunday's loss at Arlington. Play Orioles on Money Line
Some angles to consider here, including Denver winning all five of its playoff round openers since last season, most recently vs the Lakers (114-103 in the first round). The T-wolves, however, have played the champs tough this season, splitting the four previous games, are off a resounding sweep of Phoenix in the opening round, and have a score to settle from last season's opening round when losing in five. Both teams routinely scoring enough (T-wolves 118 ppg in the Suns sweep; Nuggets 116 pg last ten) to get this above 207.5. Play Timberwolves-Nuggets "Over"
No one is confusing Austin Gomber as a high end starting pitcher. However he is one of the Rockies best starters and he does eat up innings. He is facing a Pirates lineup that is frankly not very good and he has a good shot to start the 6th as long as he doesn't get lit up.
The Brewers lineup has been lights out against right handed pitching this season and sport a sterling .787 OPS, good for 2nd highest average in the league this season. Meanwhile Jameson Taillon has pitched well in three starts this season, but this will be by far his most difficult matchup and going 6 IP is simply a difficult task against this red hot Brewers lineup, especially when getting a great price as well.
The Marlins' lineup got so much weaker with the Luis Arraez trade. It's like the new Rebel Wilson. Thin. Blackburn has come way back to earth after a crazy start but I think 6 IP, 2 ER sounds about right. I will always do runs instead of innings (17.5) if moderately close simply as an injury and I win.
Wow this is low. KG has not been quite the strikeout guy he has in previous years but 4.5? He is more than capable of getting that by the third inning.
Brandon Pfaadt has pitched well recently and is coming off arguably off arguably the best game of his young career against the Mariners where he piled up an impressive 11 Ks. He will face an extremely stingy Padres lineup that is firmly ranked in the bottom 5 in K rate against opposing right handed pitchers.
This is a tough spot for Andrew Abbott who has been struggling to strike out batters this season. Abbott is sporting a subpar 7.36 K/9 and his underlying metrics do not paint a pretty picture. His SwStr% is just 6.8%, compared to last season when it was 10.9%. Abbott also gets a tough draw versus an Orioles lineup that is ranked in the bottom 10 in K Rate, in addition to being top 10 in OPS against opposing southpaws.
This is a tall order for Giants starting pitcher Keaton Winn, who has been a bright spot in SF's underrated rotation. However, Winn isn't a big strikeout pitcher, has only eclipsed this in 3/6 starts, and hasn't exceeded 6 Ks this season making this number is closer to his ceiling, rather than his floor. Lastly, he is facing a very tough and explosive Phillies lineup that is 6th in OPS against opposing righties, in addition to sporting the 19th lowest K rate.
This number is just too low for Kevin Gausman who has been one of the league's premiere strikeout artists for the last five seasons. In addition to a severely discounted line, I believe it is a clear overreaction by the oddsmakers, even in a tough matchup against the Nationals.
It goes without saying you should shop around for the best number. I was kinda stuck for a while with whatever SL offered and now we have five books to choose from. So here this is 8.5 at only one of ours with the rest having 8. It's Saturday so I'm not going to be on here monitoring weather as somehow I was roped into a square dance (kill me), but it appears that winds will be blowing in in D.C. I just don't think the Nats get more than 2ish runs off Kevin Gausman regardless. Are the Jays scoring 6? Highly doubtful. Obviously the bullpen(s) could wreck things but will take our chances.
Look, I don't want to be one of those grumpy old men (ain't that old) but if Jarrett Allen can't play in a winner-take-all, whatever man. Hockey player it up. Course, I also remember Scottie Pippen being ... I'll bite my tongue. He deserved Larsa let's just say that. Love to give more high-def information but this is simply a home play.
Things I didn't think I would do this MLB season: Breakdance (tried the Andy from the Office, also didn't go well and also involved keys), realize that Jose Canseco's daughter is dating Johnny Manziel or back the A's. But the Marlins just said goodbye in 2024 by trading two-time batting champion Luis Arraez to San Diego. If the Fish were playing anyone else Saturday (non-White Sox), I'd make a dangerously large bet.
I'm probably going to hold off on the O/U for the game here - but will be very likely going over on the games at IND - but this feels too light to me for the Pacers. They were scoring 120+ with ease vs the Bucks, IND shot 49% from three vs the Knicks in 3 regular season games and scored 140, 125 and 105 against them. NYK were only 17th defending the 3-ball in the regular season and Pacers get off a ton of outside shots. I know the Knicks want to slow the pace (30th in NBA), while IND was 2nd in pace and if they grab an early lead could force the Knicks to play their game.