Week 7 TE Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Delanie Walker (DK – $5,800/FD – $5,900): Walker still doesn't have a receiving TD in 2017 while his role in the Titans' offense has been lower than previous years. Over his last five games, Delanie has 18 catches for 185 yards on 30 targets (six targets per game). He has fewer than 55 yards receiving in his last four games. Last season Walker had one catch for 21 yards on two targets against the Browns. Cleveland can be beat at TE (43/418/5 on 56 targets) with three backend TEs having success (Jesse James – 6/41/2, Ben Watson – 8/91, and Tyler Kroft – 6/68/2). Overpriced for his 2017 path, but he should score this game. His catches and yards may fall short of the require amount to satisfy his salary bucket.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,900): Over four games, Seferian-Jenkins has 23 catches for 152 yards and two TDs on 29 targets. This is more production than New York had from the TE position for the whole season in 2015 (8/95/1 on 23 targets) and 2016 (18/173 on 28 targets). Austin has a TD in his last two games with 19 combined targets. His yards per catch (6.6) is extremely low. Last week he was robbed of a second TD. In his first game in 2017 in Week 3 vs. the Dolphins, ASJ had five catches for 31 yards on six targets. TEs have 35 catches for 276 yards and two TDs on 45 targets against Miami with two teams having ten catches (LAC – 10/101/1 and TEN – 10/62/1). Seferian-Jenkins is the top scoring option in the passing game at the goal line for the Jets with a very good opportunity. If he hits on big play, he could easily payoff at the level. I expect him to be a higher percentage own this week.
Jimmy Graham (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,800): Graham has been a much better player over his last three games (17/170/1 on 25 targets) after delivering two empty games to start the year (3/8 and 1/1 on nine combined targets). He's on pace in catches (67) with his 2016 success (65) while trailing in yards (projected for 573 yards compared to 923 yards last year). The Giants allowed a TD to the TE position in each game in 2017 (seven total) with TEs catching 38 passes for 432 yards on 56 targets. This is a favorable matchup plus Graham has a reasonable salary. Not quite the opportunity of Austin Seferian-Jenkins, but Jimmy’s career resume is much higher. Graham has the talent to produce 100+ receiving yards if he gets a bump in targets.
Cameron Brate (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,200): At this point of the season, Brate should just be a plug and play in the daily games. He has a TD in four straight games with his best success coming over the last three games (4/80/1, 5/68/1, and 6/76/1). Game score led to him having 17 targets over the last two games. The Bills haven't allowed a TD to the TE in 2017 with the Falcons having the most success (8/71 on ten targets). On the year, TEs have 25 catches for 248 yards on 33 targets vs. Buffalo while playing no team with a strong TE options (NYJ – no Austin Seferian Jenkins, CAR – Greg Olsen hurt in the game, DEN, ATL, and CIN). Tough to ignore Brate's scoring ability, but he can't be in play without a TD.
Jason Witten (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,300): Witten returned to the Fantasy stat sheet in Week 5 when he caught eight of his ten targets for 61 yards. He now has two playable games (7/59/1 and 10/97) and two black holes (1/3 and 1/9). In his best three games, Jason has 32 combined targets compared to only six combines chances in his two bad contests. Last year he had seven catches for 47 yards on nine targets against the 49ers. TEs have 21 catches for 209 yards and no TDs on 32 targets vs. San Fran. The Redskins did use the TE last week (7/102 on nine targets) to help defeat the 49ers. It really comes down to game score here. Dallas will try to control the clock with the run game. If they play from the lead, Jason can't be in play. Not the right matchup for me.
Evan Engram (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,500): Engram was pretty much a layup in Week 6 (5/82/1 on seven targets) with the Giants having weak WRs vs. a team with strength at CB. Evan was active in the Giants passing game in five of six games (shutout in Week 5 vs. the Chargers on four targets). He's averaged 6.8 targets per game, which is a number that will rise dramatically going forward. TEs have 25 catches for 303 yards and a TD on 42 targets against the Seahawks. Seattle has two talented safeties and they will be able to shift coverage toward Engram when needed to lower his upside. Favorable salary, but he will have a tough time scoring in this matchup. If Eli Manning gives him double digit targets, Engram could still post a winning scoring for his salary. In my thoughts, but not a slam dunk.
Hunter Henry (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,200): After six games, Hunter is now the 12th highest scoring TE in PPR leagues despite posting a zero in two games. For the second time this season, Henry had a big game in yards (7/80 and 5/90). Over his last three games, Hunter had ten catches for 148 yards and two TDs on 18 targets, which works out to 12.27 Fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. The Broncos shut him out in Week 1 with no targets. Over the last two games, Hunter has been on the field for 113 of 143 plays compared to 78 by Antonio Gates. TEs have 30 catches for 333 yards and three TDs on 41 targets vs. Denver with two TEs having success (Jason Witten – 10/97/1 and Evan Engram – 5/82/1). I don't expect a ton of targets for Henry in this game, but Philip Rivers will need to use his RB and TE to have success passing the ball in this game. Possible TDs gives him a chance at a mid-teens score.
Kyle Rudolph (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,400): With Diggs hurt, Rudolph has been active in the passing game over the last two weeks (18 targets). His bump in chances led to 11 catches for 92 yards and a TD in Week 5 and Week 6. Game score probably hurt him last week after the injury to Aaron Rodgers. Kyle still doesn't have a game with over 50 yards receiving in 2017 with only one catch for 20 yards or more (11 in 2016). TEs have 24 catches for 331 yards and six TDs on 35 targets against the Ravens. Rudolph will be the best TE to face Baltimore so far in 2017. The Ravens allowed all of their TDs to low level TEs (Marcedes Lewis – 3, David Njoku, Dion Sims, and Zach Miller). Excellent value with a TD seeming like the logical outcome.
George Kittle (DK – $3,600/FD – $4,800): Kittle couldn't deliver a follow through game last week after his breakout success in Week 5 (7/83/1). George did have eight targets, but he caught only four of his chances for 46 yards. Kittle went to college with QB C.J. Beathard so they should have some chemistry already built in. TEs have 23 catches for 284 yards and a TD on 34 targets against the Cowboys with no TE having an impactful game. Possible chaser game works in his favor, but the needed TD may be a tall task until Beathard proves he can may winning throws in the red zone. George would be more intriguing to me with Brian Hoyer behind center.
Ed Dickson (DK – $3,500/FD – $5,100): Dickson had a season high eight targets in Week 6, but he only caught four balls for 36 yards. The previous week the Lions didn't game plan to cover him leading to his best game of his career (5/175). Ed doesn't have a TD in 2017 while averaging 5.7 targets per game over his last three contests. TEs have 30 catches for 327 yards and two TDs on 43 targets vs. the Bears. Low volume player with limited scoring ability. If Kelvin Benjamin doesn't play this week, Cam Newton will be forced to use Dickson more in the passing game.
Jack Doyle (DK – $3,400/FD – $5,100): Doyle had his best game (7/50/1 on 11 targets) last week after missing Week 5 with a concussion. Jack averages 6.8 targets per game while being on pace for 77 catches for 682 yards and three TDs on 109 targets. Last season he had only three catches for 16 yards and a TD on six targets in two games against the Jaguars. TEs have 26 catches for 251 yards and three TDs on 40 targets vs. Jacksonville in 2017 with Delanie Walker having the best game (4/61). Poor matchup even with the Colts’ WRs expected to have a tough time getting open in this game. Doyle would be a tough start in the season long games so he's off the board in the daily space.
Martellus Bennett (DK – $3,300/FD – $5,300): Bennett has been a disappointment in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. After six games, he has 22 catches for 216 yards and no TDs on 35 targets. Martellus has fewer than 55 yards receiving in each game with only seven combined targets in the last two games. TEs have 16 catches for 219 yards and three TDs on 26 targets against the Saints with only Rob Gronkowski having a good game (6/116/1). Tough to trust any part of his game plus the Packers will be playing with a drop down at QB. His only positive would be a possible chaser game.
Zack Miller (DK – $3,200/FD – $5,200): With Mitchell Trubisky starting at QB, Miller has a pair of TDs over the last two games. Even with his uptick in scoring, Zach only had five catches in his last two games for 64 combined yards on ten targets. He has three catches or fewer in his last four games while averaging only five targets per game in 2017. Carolina allowed 30 yards or fewer to TEs in five of their six games, but TEs did beat them for four TDs in the last two games. Overall, TEs have 20 catches for 211 yards and four TDs on 30 targets. Low upside matchup and I expect Carolina to clean up their mistakes at the goal line.
Coby Fleener (DK – $3,000/FD – $5,000): Fleener has been missing in action over the last three games (three combined catches for 42 yards on six targets). Game score created by a couple of defensive scored ruin any opportunity for him last week and the lack of offense by the Dolphins in Week 4 pushed the game plan away from him. On the year, Coby has two TDs while averaging only 3.2 targets per game. TEs have 25 catches for 214 yards and no TDs on 38 targets against Green Bay. Too much negative in Fleener's opportunity to take this empty dance.
Benjamin Watson (DK – $3,000/FD – $4,900): After sucking in Fantasy owners in Week 2 (8/91), Watson only has 16 catches for 85 yards and a TD on 21 targets in his last four games. Ben continues to be listed as questionable on the injury report with a knee issue. TEs have 28 catches for 291 yards and three TDs on 42 targets vs. the Vikings with Coby Fleener having the best game (5/54/1). Joe Flacco will look for Watson at the end zone and the Ravens having weak WR threats in close. If you are willing to take some risk, Ben could be worth a gamble with the Ravens expected to chase on the scoreboard.
Tyler Kroft (DK – $3,000/FD – $5,600): Over the last two games, Kroft has ten catches for 106 yards and two TDs on 12 targets highlighted by his success in Week 4 (6/68/2 on seven targets). The Steelers haven't allowed a TD to a TE in 2017 with no TE gaining over 45 yards receiving. TEs have 27 catches for 256 yards on 40 targets. Tough to trust his chances, matchup, or scoring ability in this game.
David Njoku (DK – $2,900/FD – $4,500): Njoku has three catches or fewer in each game in 2017. He's averaging 3.3 targets per game while being a time split for snaps with Seth DeValue. David does have three TDs in his last four games. Last week he didn’t gain a yard on his two catches on five targets. TEs have 27 catches for 287 yards and a TD on 44 targets against the Titans with Seattle having the most success (10/125 on 15 targets). Upside talent with a weak opportunity.
A.J. Derby (DK – $2,800/FD – $4,600): Derby couldn't follow up his success in Week 4 (4/75/1 on six targets) last week vs. the Giants (1/10 on four targets). A.J. had the most TE snaps (52) in Denver last week, which is a positive sign for his value going forward. The injury to Emmanuel Sanders will create an opportunity for another receiving option in the offense. Derby could be the most rewarded in Week 7. TEs have 18 catches for 240 yards and no TDs on 29 targets vs. the Chargers so this isn't a great matchup. Only a bet on the come if you are looking for salary cap relief.