Daily Dr. Roto — July 19, 2018
Buffalo Bills Team Preview
Outlook: This could be a challenging year for the Bills. I like their coaching staff, but their lack of player personnel will make it difficult for them to win many games. With LeSean McCoy dealing with outside legal troubles and with question marks at both the quarterback and wide receiver position it looks like last year’s playoff team will be lucky to win about 4 or 5 games this season.
QB: The Bills quarterback position is the good, the bad, and the ugly. The good is rookie Josh Allen. He has a tremendous arm, a looming pocket presence, and could one day be one of the top passers in the league. He suffers from a low completion percentage, but he has an arm that most other quarterbacks would kill for. However, Allen is simply not ready yet and needs to learn how to read opposing defenses better before he can play regularly. The bad is AJ McCarron. It’s not that he’s a lousy quarterback, but I think that the Bills gave him a bad two-year deal because it gets in the way of them playing Allen. That said, I do expect McCarron to begin the season as the Bills starting quarterback and struggle mightily. It would not shock me to see him lose the starting job by Week 4 or 5. The ugly is Nathan Peterman. Peterman was a rookie last year and while the coaching staff likes him when he had his opportunity to play in the NFL he got destroyed. He seems to be overmatched at the NFL level.
RB: LeSean McCoy’s career is beginning to wind down, but it may come to a quick halt if he is found guilty of beating his ex-girlfriend as she suggested on Instagram. McCoy has denied these allegations, and it appears as if the woman has shifted her story, so as of right now it looks like McCoy will escape unscathed. Regardless, I think that McCoy’s best years are behind him although I do think he can be productive for another 1-2 seasons. My biggest fear in drafting him is that the Bills offense is so predictable that McCoy will see eight men in the box and have little to no running room. I expect his YPC to be the worst of his career. Chris Ivory will be McCoy’s backup, and I can see him siphoning about 100-120 carries this season. I think the Bills know that they need to keep McCoy fresh and will try to give Ivory an opportunity to shoulder at least some of the workload. The Bills normally use McCoy as a 3rd down back, but Travaris Cadaret is also on the roster and can be useful in two minute or garbage time situations.
WR: The Bills wide receiving corps has one solid name, and the rest is a mess. Former Carolina Panthers WR, Kelvin Benjamin came over in a trade last season and is assuredly the WR1 for the team. Benjamin has great size and strength, but he struggles with some of the better cornerbacks in the league and dealt with a knee injury for much of last season. That said, the Bills are counting on him to be their go-to guy, and he should be capable of catching about 75-80 passes this season. The WR2 is Zay Jones. Jones struggled as a rookie last season after being one of the most productive wide receivers in NCAA history. It just goes to show that playing well on Saturdays does not automatically mean that you will play well on Sundays. I am not sure that Jones is draftable in deeper formats with anything more than a 19th or 20th round flyer. Jeremy Kerley is expected to play the slot, and Andre Holmes is the WR4. Neither is on my draft radar.
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TE: Charles Clay is not a sexy name at tight end, but he is always productive. He is good for about 50-55 catches for 550 yards and 3-4 TDs. If I wait on taking a tight end and need one in rounds 15-20, Clay’s name is at the top of my list.
K: I would like Steven Hauschka if he played for a better offense in a better climate. As it is, it’s hard to count on him on a weekly basis with the Bills struggling to move the ball.
D: I love what the Bills are doing on defense. They have a lot of young playmakers (watch rookie LB Tremaine Edmunds!), and Sean McDermott will have them playing above their heads. The problem is that I expect a lot of three and outs on offense, which could mean that their defense will run out of gas late in games.
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