Week 10 QB Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Dak Prescott (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,800): Dak remains a top five QB in 2017 despite not having a game with more than 270 yards passing. Prescott has a rushing TD in four of his last six games while averaging just over three carries for game for about 25 yards. He has three combined TDs per game in five of his las six starts. The Falcons are league average defending QBs. They allow 6.6 yards per pass attempt with 11 passing TDs. Only one team passed for over 265 yards against Atlanta. Dak enters this week with his top WR Dez Bryant battling a couple of injuries. Playing well for a team that has won three straight games. This matchup has more of an Ezekiel Elliott smell plus Prescott has the top salary on the week at QB.
Drew Brees (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,500): Brees continues to throw the ball well (71.6 percent completion rate while gaining 8.1 yards per pass attempt), but he’s only attempting 34.4 passes per game (42.0 in 2016). The rise of the Saints' defense led to a six-game winning streak plus four defensive scores over the last four games. Drew only has 13 TDs after eight games while passing for over 300 yards in three games. New Orleans has seven rushing TDs over the last four games also hurting the playability for Brees. The Bills rank 11th in the NFL defending QBs with seven teams scoring fewer than 19 Fantasy points. The only team to have success was Tampa in Week 7 (384/3). QBs only have seven passing TDs against Buffalo. Not the best matchup and a game in cold weather doesn’t point to impact success by Drew. He has the talent to post a winning scoring while being an against the grain play.
Matthew Stafford (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200): Stafford has over 300 yards passing in his last three games (1,096 combined yards) with five passing TDs. Matthew has two games with three TDs or more. The Browns are 25th in the league defending QBs with two teams posting playable scores (IND – 273 combined yards with three TDs and CIN – 315 combined yards with four TDs). QBs have 16 passing TDs against Cleveland with no team passing for 300+ yards. Trending upward with a shallow rushing game point to the Lions' scoring most of their TDs via the pass. Viable option if Cleveland can keep the game competitive on the scoreboard.
Jared Goff (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,200): Goff had his best game of his career in Week 9 (311/4). This came after four short games (255/2, 288/0, 124/1, and 235/1) while facing two tough defenses (SEA and JAC) over that span. Jared is on pace for 4,060 yards and 28 combined TDs. The Texans allowed 77 points in their last two road games with QBs gaining 8.0 yards per pass attempt with 16 passing TDs. Four of their last six opponents passed for over 300 yards with three resulting in impact game (NE – 378/5, KC – 324/3, and 452/4). Goff has a short resume of success so he'll be tough to trust as impact option in the daily games, but this is a very winnable matchup even with a rising salary.
Ben Roethlisberger (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,600): Over the last six games, Ben only has six TDs while passing for over 300 yards twice in 2017. Hidden behind his slow start to the year is more explosiveness in the passing game over the last three games (14 passing plays over 20 yards with five going for 40 yards or more). Roethlisberger gained 10.1, 9.3, and 10.2 yards per pass attempt over his last three games. Indy is league average defending QBs with five teams passing for over 300 yards with 13 passing TDs. The Colts allow 8.3 yards per pass attempt. I'd love this matchup if it was at home. Excellent chance at 300+ passing yards with two TDs or more. If Ben fails, Le'Veon Bell will have a huge day. The Steelers need to do a better converting on third downs especially in short yardage situations.
Matt Ryan (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,700): Ryan looks to be trending back in a favorable area. He had his best game of the year in Week 9 (313/2) while leaving a 100 yards and a couple of TDs on the table by a dropped long TD by Julio Jones and another long TD that was a half-step away from coming in. Matt doesn't have a game in 2017 with more than two TDs. He's on pace for 4,314 passing yards and 22 TDs, which is well below his breakout 2016 season (4.944 and 38 TDs). Jones is listed as questionable for this week's game with a lower-leg issue. The Cowboys are 20th in the league defending QBs (6.8 yards per pass attempt with 14 passing TDs allowed). Only one team passed for over 265 yards (ARI – 325/2). If Julio is a full go at the end of the week, Ryan should be an under the radar option.
Tyrod Taylor (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,800): Taylor had his best game of the season in Week 9 (320 combined yards with three TDs), but most of his success came in garbage time. Tyrod passed for fewer than 225 yards in six of his eight games while failing to pass for more than two TDs in every game. HIs receiving core should be improved going forward with Kelvin Benjamin added and Charles Clay expected back this week. New Orleans sits 16th in the league defending QBs, but most of their failure came in Week 1 (MIN – 346/3) and Week 2 (NE – 447/4). The Saints allowed only one combined passing TD in five of their six games with each team failing to pass over 200 yards. They face three backup QBs in their last three games. Below par matchup while being an interesting against the grain play.
Josh McCown (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,400): McCown continues to give the Jets solid QB play. He's completed over 65 percent of his passes in seven of his eight games and 70.4 percent on the year. Josh is on pace for a career high in passing yards (3,960) and TD (26). Over his last five starts, McCown has ten TDs with one game with over 300 yards passing (354/2). The Bucs are 31st in Fantasy points allowed to QBs with three disaster games (MIN – 369/3, NYG – 288/3, and ARI – 283/3). McCown hasn't passed for over 210 yards on the road with eight TDs in four games. The data gives him a chance while New York would like to run the ball.
Kirk Cousins (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,500): Cousins only has one combined passing TD in his last two games while completing over 66 percent of his passes in four straight games. Kirk has three games with over 300 yards passing and three games with three TDs. The Vikings are fifth in the NFL defending QBs with the last five teams scoring fewer than 17 Fantasy points. Minnesota allows 6.4 yards per pass completion with nine TDs. The last four opponents passed for fewer than 200 yards in each game. With No Jordan Reed and possibly Jamison Crowder, Cousin looks like a low upside swing in this matchup.
Marcus Mariota (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,700): Mariota hasn't attempted over 34 passes in his last six games. He only has one game with over 300 yards passing and nine combined TDs. Marcus doesn't have one game of value in 2017 plus he hasn't run in his last three games (6/14) after missing a game with a hamstring injury. QBs have fewer than 20 Fantasy points in seven of eight games against the Bengals. The Packers are the only team to have success against Cinci (313/3). They allow 6.3 yards per pass attempt with ten TDs. Tough to trust.
Andy Dalton (DK – $5,300/FD – $7,100): Dalton had no answer for the Jaguars' defense last week. He passed for only 136 yards while losing the time of possession battle 40:14 to 19:46. It didn't help that his top WR decided to snap during the game leading to an early shower. His only game of value came in Week 4 vs. the Browns (286/4). Andy has fewer than 245 yards passing in six games. The Titans were drilled in two games vs. QBs (SEA – 373/4 and HOU – 307 combined yards and five TDs). The Titans allowed 6.4 yards per pass attempt with QBs passing for 15 TDs. A.J. Green gives Andy a fighting chance at this price chance.
Jacoby Brissett (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,600): Brissett was the benefit of a couple of long TDs (45 and 80) in Week 9 with the second falling more in the fluke column. Jacoby now has two playable games (273 combined yards and three TDs in Week 3). He has four TDs in his last two games on the road pointing to upside going forward. The Steelers are third in the league defending QBs (6.2 yards per pass attempt and six passing TDs allowed). The only team to have success passing the ball against Pittsburgh was the Lions in Week 8 (423 yards and no TDs). Bad matchup with a slim chance of posting an impact game.
Eli Manning (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,700): Manning has fewer than 225 passing in four straight games with six combined TDs. His completion rate is only 54.6 percent over this span. Manning played well in Week 3 (366/3) and Week 4 (310 combined yards with three TDs) when he had his full complement of receiving options. The 49ers are 27th in the NFL defending QBs with two bad games (LAR – 292/3 and WAS – 330/3). They allow 7.6 yards per pass attempt with 16 TDs. Looks dead on the water, but this is his best matchup since Week 4. Possible low value hookup with Sterling Shepard or Evan Engram.
Brett Hundley (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,400): Hundley made some progress in Week 9 (267 combined yards with a TD), but he's still gaining only 5.0 yards per passing attempt with only one passing TD and four Ints. The Bears held QBs to fewer than 20 Fantasy points in six of their last seven games. In Week 4, Aaron Rodgers passed for 179 yards and four TDs against Chicago. The Bears allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt with eight passing TDs (none in the last three games). Plenty of receiving talent and the Packers do play well vs. Chicago. Brett’s lack of resume makes him only a gamble.
Philip Rivers (DK – $4,900/FD – $7,300): Rivers has two games with three TDs and two games with over 300 yards passing. Philip has back-to-back poor games (183/2 and 212/1). The Jaguars are first in the NFL defending QBs with no team scoring over 17 Fantasy points. QBs have four passing TDs vs. Jacksonville (one over the last five games) with QBs gaining only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Poor matchup with no real upside even with a low salary. The Jaguars have talent at CB so Philip will use his RB and TEs in this matchup to move the ball.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (DK – $4,900/FD – $7,400): With Jameis Winston out this week, Fitzpatrick will gain the starting job in Week 10. He threw the ball well in relief in Week 6 vs. the Cardinals (290 yards and three TDs). He'll be without top WR Mike Evans forcing Ryan to use his TEs and his top two WRs. The Jets allowed over 30 Fantasy points to QBs in two of the last three weeks (MIA – 326/4 and BUF – 320 combined yards and three TDs). QBs have 19 passing TDs against New York (13 in the last five games). Even without his top WR, Fitzpatrick could still post a winning score at this level.
Blake Bortles (DK – $4,800/FD – $7,300): Bortles threw the ball better in his last three games (830 yards and three TDs) with a solid completion rate (65.7). This week he should have speed WR Dede Westbrook helping his explosiveness in the deep passing game especially with plus running from Leonard Fournette. The Chargers are 9th in the league defending QBs with six of the last seven teams scoring fewer than 18 Fantasy points. Only one team has over 245 yards passing against LA (NE – 333/1). Poor matchup with Blake’s upside tied to rookie Westbrook.
Case Keenum (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,800): The window for Keenum to start for the Vikings may be closing with Teddy Bridgewater expected to be activated this week. Over the last five games, Case has four passing TDs while throwing for more than 240 yards just once (288/2). The Redskins have risk vs. QBs (21st) even with talent at CB. They've allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 12 TDs. Keenum has talent at WR with a pass catching RB and a TE with upside. Not ideal, but he priced low enough to take a small swing.
C.J. Beathard (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,300): Beathard continues to have a short completion rate (50.9) while gaining only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. He's completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes in two straight games. Last week C.J. threw for a career high 294 yards with 16 yards and a TD on the ground. He has one TD in each game started. The Giants fell to 27th defending QBs with three of their last five opponents delivering high level games (TB – 332/3, SEA – 334/4, and LAR – 311/4). New York allowed 18 passing TDs (14 in the last five games) with four QBs passing for over 300 yards in the last five games. Don't love his arm and he lost his top receiver last week, but the Giants could be packing it in. A 50 burger will draw attention to a fading defense. GPP flier.
DeShone Kizer (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,100): Kizer doesn't have a passing TD in his last four games played with fewer than 180 yards passing in each game. He has just as many rushing TDs (3) as passing TDs (3). The Lions held QBs to fewer than 21 Fantasy points in seven of their eight games. Two teams have over 300 yards vs. Detroit (CAR – 355/2 and PIT – 317/1) while allowing ten passing TDs on the year. This is a tough matchup so I'd avoid DeShone in the daily games.
Mitchell Trubisky (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,500): Trubisky hasn't passed for more than 165 yards in any of his NFL starts. His completion rate (47.5) remains in a weak area while gaining only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Mitchell averages only 20 pass attempts per game, which is part of his reason for a low passing total in each week. The Packers allowed over 24 Fantasy points to QBs in three of the last four games (DAL – 288 combined yards with four TDs, NO – 331/2, and DET – 361/2). Overall, QBs gain 7.8 yards per pass attempt with 11 TDs. The Bears want to run the ball and the Packers don't have a strong enough QB to force the pace on the scoreboard.
Tom Savage (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,000): Savage finished one TD away from being playable in the season long games in Week 9. Considering Tom had about a day and half to get his timing down with the first team offense, it wasn't a total loss even with his poor completion rate (43.2). He has to do a better job getting the ball downfield, but his lack of foot speed is a huge issue. The Rams are 2nd in the NFL vs. QBs with seven teams scoring fewer 18 Fantasy points. LA allows 6.8 yards per rush with QBs tossing ten passing TDs. The only team to have success was the 49ers (332/2). More risk than reward.