Week 12 WR Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
A.J. Green (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,300): Green has a TD in two straight games and six TDs in his last eight games. A.J. has three strong games (10/111/1, 7/189/1, and 5/115/1) while averaging 8.2 targets per game. In Week 4, he had five catches for 63 yards and a TD against the Browns. Cleveland is surprisingly 6th in the NFL vs. WRs (97/1291/9 on 163 targets) with better over the last seven games. Four WRs have success against the Browns (Antonio Brown – 11/182, T.Y. Hilton – 7/153/1, Adam Thielen – 5/98/1, and Golden Tate – 6/97/1). Almost a lock for a TD with 100+ yards likely to follow. Circle play.
Julio Jones (DK – $7,700/FD – $7,800): Jones has seven games with over 70 yards receiving and five catches or more, but he's scored only one TD on the year. He averages 8.6 targets per game, which is well below 2015 (12.7) and 2016 (9.2). Julio remains limited during practice with knee and ankle issues. He had 12 catches for 177 yards and two TDs on 19 targets in two games against Tampa in 2016. The Bucs allow the most Fantasy points to WRs (146/1952/12 on 223 targets) with three players having strong games (Stefon Diggs – 8/173/2, Larry Fitzgerald – 10/138/1, and Kenny Stills – 7/180/1). Nice matchup and Jones is due for an impact game with multiple TDs.
Mike Evans (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,700): Evans went scoreless in his last three games while gaining only 165 yards on 11 catches. Mike still doesn't have a game with over 100 yards receiving while averaging 8.4 targets per game (10.8 in 2016). Last season he was electric in two games against the Falcons (16/249/3 on 24 targets. Atlanta ranks 10th in the league against WRs (106/1218/8 on 175 targets). Only one WR has over 100 yards receiving vs. the Falcons (Robby Anderson – 6/104/1). Great resume in this matchup in 2016, but his best game came when CB Desmond Trufant left with an injury. Neutral matchup as far as CB, but Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't have the same chemistry with Evans. Good chance at a TD and high volume of targets.
Michael Thomas (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,600): Thomas doesn't have a TD in his last six games, but he remains very active in his last five starts (37/432 with 51 targets). Michael has three 20-point Fantasy games (7/87/1, 8/89/1, and 9/117) with each game coming on the road. The Rams sit 7th in the league against WRs (110/1453/7 on 193 targets) with three WRs gaining over 100 yards (Pierre Garcon – 7/142, DeAndre Hopkins – 7/111, and Adam Thielen – 6/123/1). His matchup vs. CB Trumaine Johnson looks favorable and his TD drought ends here. Nice floor with his upside tied to game flow and TDs. Thomas may fly under the radar in Week 12.
Brandin Cooks (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,600): The WR momentum in New England shifted to Cooks over the last two games with Chris Hogan injured. Last week Brandin had his second impact game (6/149/1 on nine targets) with more upside left on the table due to game score. Over the last two games, he has 20 targets leading to 12 catches for 223 yards and a TD. His only other game of value came in Week 3 (5/131/2). Miami is about league average defending WRs (104/1434/10 on 157 targets). Only one WR has over 100 yards receiving vs. the Dolphins (Keenan Allen – 9/100), which came in Week 1. Cooks is projected highly this week while his matchup tells a shorter story.
Doug Baldwin (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,900): Baldwin had an empty stat line late in last week's game before coming up with a 29-yard TD. Doug has three TDs in his last five games while gaining over 90 yards in three of those games (9/92/1, 7/108/1, and 5/95). In Week 2, Doug had six catches for 44 yards vs. the 49ers. He averages 8.5 targets per game. San Fran is 21st in the league against WRs (115/1597/10 on 186 targets). Five WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the 49ers (Robert Woods – 6/108, Sammy Watkins – 6/106/2, Jaron Brown – 8/105, T.Y. Hilton – 7/177, and Sterling Shepard – 11/142). High volume option when game flow works in his direction. Viable thanks to Seattle having no run game plus Baldwin will have a huge edge over CB K’Waun Williams.
Tyreek Hill (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300): Hill only has two plus games in 2017 (7/133/1 and 6/125/1) with both coming because of a long TD. Tyreek hasn't had over eight targets in any game while averaging 6.6 targets per game. Hill has been unable to add value in the run game (14/47) after showing explosiveness in this area in 2016 (24/267/3). The Bills fell to 13th vs. WRs (132/1573/6 on 213 targets) after getting drilled by Keenan Allen and the Chargers' WR in Week 11 (19/229/2). CB Tre'Davious White continues to play well plus Hill doesn't get enough chances in most games to deliver on his high salary.
Jarvis Landry (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,100): Landry continues to get double digit targets in most games (eight times). Last week he finally hit a long play (49-yards) with another long pass called back due to a penalty. Jarvis averages 10.8 targets per game while scoring a TD in six of his last seven games. He has a high floor due to five catches or more in each game. The Patriots allow the third most Fantasy points to WRs (139/1925/10 on 227 targets). Six teams have over 200 yards receiving against New England. Landry will be the top targeted WR for Miami again in Week 12 with CB Eric Rowe struggling in coverage. Nice chaser game value while needing more length on his catches. Last season Jarvis had 19 catches for 211 yards and a TD on 25 targets in two games against the Patriots.
T.Y. Hilton (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,500): Hilton has been a losing ride in five of his last seven games (3/30, 1/19, 2/27, 2/15, and 2/23) while facing three of the top five teams in the league defending WRs (JAC, CIN, and PIT) plus SEA with a healthy Richard Sherman. When T.Y. has an edge in a matchup, he has huge upside (CLE – 7/163/1, SF – 7/177, and HOU – 5/175/2). The Titans held him to one catches for 19 yards on four targets in Week 6 at home. On the year, Tennessee is 28th in the NFL defending WRs (127/1517/15 on 208 targets) after getting drilled in the last two games (CIN – 13/220/2 and PIT – 16/221/3). Four WRs have great games against the Titans (Doug Baldwin – 10/105/1, DeAndre Hopkins – 10/107/1, A.J. Green – 5/115/1, and Antonio Brown – 10/144/3). Hilton will be much better at home in his second matchup against Tennessee with his upside tied to big plays and TD. Worth a dance.
Alshon Jeffery (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,100): Jeffery has a TD in three straight games (four total) while averaging 8.7 targets per game over this period. Alshon only has two playable games on the year (7/92/1 and 6/84/2) with eight targets per game. This will be a matchup vs. his former team so the Eagles will do their best to get him a score. Chicago is 12th in the NFL defending WRs (110/1501/8 on 182 targets). Only one WR has over 100 yards against the Bears (10/110/1). More steady than explosive due to expected game score.
Devin Funchess (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,300): Funchess has ten catches for 178 yards and two TDs over the last two games, but he only had 13 combined targets. His opportunity appeared to be higher from Week 3 to Week 7 when Devin averaged 8.8 targets per game. Over his last eight games, Funchess has five TDs. The Jets are 24th in the league vs. WRs (121/1457/11 on 203 targets). No WR has over 100 yards receiving against New York with Michael Crabtree (6/80/3) and Kenny Stills (6/85/2) having the best games. Top WR in an offensive with minimal options to compete for targets. On the move with a chance to be active in the passing game.
DeVante Parker (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,400): It's easy to cross Parker off the daily game wish list with Kenny Stills stealing his thunder. DeVante has double digit Fantasy points in five of his six full games in PPR leagues while averaging 8.8 targets per game. His only TD came in Week 3. Last season Parker played well in his game in New England (8/106 on 13 targets). This week he'll need to match that game plus add a TD to be viable. His matchup vs. CB Stephon Gilmore looks neutral. A chaser game should help his opportunity.
Danny Amendola (DK – $5,800/FD – $5,700): Amendola has four games with six catches or more with one resulting in more than 20 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. At this salary, Danny was worthy of playing once of nine weeks. He did have a season high nine targets last week. On the year, Amendola averages 6.1 targets per game with only two games with over 75 yards receiving (6/100 and 8/77). He should have an edge over CB Bobby McCain. Danny continues to be limited with a knee issue. Too much risk and downside for this price point.
Robby Anderson (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,700): Robby has a TD in four straight games despite having short targets (5.75) over this span. This season Anderson only has one game with over four catches in a game. His best two games in targets came in Week 1 (8) and Week 6 (12). The Panthers are 20th against WRs (117/1371/8 on 191 targets). The best two games vs. the Panthers came from Michael Thomas (7/87/1) and Julio Jones (6/118). Big play type WR who gets low chances per game (6.4), which means his salary is too high for his opportunity.
Demaryius Thomas (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,800): Thomas has had a better opportunity over the last three weeks (29 targets) with Brock Osweiler behind center. He has a TD in three straight games after failing to score over the first seven weeks, but Demaryius failed to gain over 70 yards in his last four contests. This week he'll have a new QB (Paxton Lynch) throwing him the ball so he may not have the same scoring chemistry. The Raiders are 22nd in the league defending WRs (118/1529/9 on 172 targets) with three players gaining over 100 yards receiving (Mike Wallace – 3/133, Tyreek Hill – 6/125/1, and Brandin Cook – 6/149/1). Fair price for a player with scoring ability and solid targets (8.8 per game). He just needs better QB play.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,200): Larry has been active in his last two games (10/113 and 9/91/1) while receiving 24 combined targets. Fitzgerald has two other strong game (13/149/1 and 10/138/1). He averages 9.8 targets per game with a plus catch rate (69.0). The Jaguars have the top defense in the league defending WRs (90/1033/1 on 177 targets) with only one player gaining over 100 yards (Antonio Brown – 10/157). On the positive side, Larry will avoid Jacksonville top two CBs on most plays when he runs his routes out of the slot. Very low chance at a TD with a step back in chances. Avoid in the daily games while accepting your losses in the season long contests.
Michael Crabtree (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,900): Crabtree has two double digit target game in his last three games leading to two steady games (5/83 and 6/51). He scored six TDs over his first six games, but Michael doesn't have a game with over 100 yards receiving in 2017. In his eight full games, he averages 7.9 targets per game. The Broncos still ranks 3rd in the NFL defending WRs (90/1068/10 on 156 targets) despite their pass defense allowing nine TDs over the last three games. Low upside matchup while still having scoring ability.
Amari Cooper (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,000): After his elite games (11/210/2 on 19 targets) against the Chiefs, Amari had 26 targets over his last three games with boring results (5/48, 4/59, and 3/28/1). Through ten games, he's the 29th ranked WR in PPR leagues. In Week 4, Cooper had only two catches for eight yards on eight targets against the Broncos. His matchup with CB Bradley Roby looks neural based on Amari's low success this year. Priced low for his skill set with minimal upside this week.
Nelson Agholor (DK – $5,300/FD – $5,900): Agholor continues to fade in the Eagles' passing game. He has four catches or fewer in nine straight games with no value in his last three starts (3/26, 2/36, and 1/-2). Nelson averages only 4.7 targets per game. His playable value has been helped by five TDs. CB Bryce Callahan looks to be a neutral matchup. Wentz is playing well, but Agholor has a weak opportunity for his salary. Against the grain type swing in an Eagles’ passing stack.
Mohamed Sanu (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,800): The Falcons have looked Sanu's way only 11 times over the last three games leading to three short scores (3/23/1, 3/29, and 3/34/1). He has three TDs over his last four starts while averaging 5.8 targets per game on the year. CB Ryan Smith moved into the starting lineup a month ago, which was an upgrade over the fading Vernon Hargreaves and Robert McClain. Sneaky piece of the Falcons’' passing game, but he needs more chances to pay off at this level.
Emmanuel Sanders (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,300): After missing two games, Sanders had mixed results in his last three games. He played well vs. the Patriots (6/137 on 11 targets) with failed result in his other two games (1/30 and 2/15). On the year, Emmanuel averages 8.2 targets per game with one game of value (6/62/2). In Week 4, he had four catches for 27 yards against the Raiders. CB Sean Smith is only a league average player this year giving Sanders a slight edge with more upside with better play at QB. Right kind of swing at this level.
Rishard Matthew (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,300): Matthews was a late add to the injury report with a hamstring. He played better over his last three games (4/70/1, 5/50, and 5/113/1), but he only had 20 combined targets. Rishard only has one game with over five catches while averaging 6.8 targets per game. He had four catches for 69 yards in Week 6 vs. the Colts. Indy allows the sixth most Fantasy points to WRs (118/1849/8 on 214 targets) with three WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving (J.J. Nelson – 5/120/1, Marquise Goodwin – 5/116, and Allen Hurns – 5/101). I like this matchup if Tennessee is forced to throw.
Ted Ginn (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,700): Ginn just fits what the Saints want to do in the passing game. The rise in his catch rate (81.4) is impressive. Ted has over 60 yards receiving in five of his last six games with one game with over 20 Fantasy points (7/141). Even with explosive ability, he averages 4.3 targets per game. Homerun player who needs more chances and a TD to reach his salary number. Only a play for me if I’m using Drew Brees as my QB.
Cooper Kupp (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,400): Kupp could be in line for a nice bump in targets with Robert Woods injured. Over his last two games, Cooper has 12 catches for 111 yards on 14 targets. His last TD came in Week 7. DraftKings pushed his salary to an area where he now needs over 20 Fantasy points to be in play. This is something he hasn't done all year. The Saints are 8th vs. WRs (105/1409/6 on 176 targets), but they probably won't have their top CB Marshon Lattimore. Kupp wouldn't see him in coverage as he runs most of his routes out of the slot where he'll have a huge edge over CB De'Vante Harris. If this game ended up being a shootout, Cooper could have his best game of his career.
DeSean Jackson (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,500): With Jameis Winston banged up, Jackson has been quiet in three of his last four games (3/37, 2/25, and 2/28/1) with a better opportunity in Week 10 (ten targets) with Mike Evans suspended. DeSean only has one game with over 100 yards receiving and no games with over 20 Fantasy points. Jackson has a tough matchup vs. Desmond Trufant who is one of the better CBs in the league. Fade is the right answer here in the daily games.
Corey Davis (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,400): Over his three games back in the lineup for the Titans, Corey has nine catches for 103 yards on 22 targets while facing three of the top five defense defending WRs. Davis has starting snaps in the last two games and an upside resume in college. He has short success in the NFL with owning elite talent. This is a perfect matchup for him to make a step forward. Far from a lock, but sometimes you just must bet on the come.
Sammy Watkins (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,900): Survival in Fantasy market can be tough if you invest in the wrong players early in the draft. Watkins was a sixth or seventh round pick in the high stakes market, but he failed to deliver on his draft value. Over his last seven games, Sammy only has 11 catches for 212 yards and two TDs on 24 targets. This week he'll move up to WR2 with Robert Woods out. Watkins should avoid a tough matchup with CB Marshon Lattimore. For the teams still in the hunt in the season long games, Sammy should have a chance to shine this week.
Kenny Stills (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,600): Stills went from almost missing last week's game with a back issue to a top three finish at WR (7/180/1 on eight targets). As the third WR in Miami, Kenny has over 65 yards receiving in three of his last five games with four TDs on 7.8 targets per game. His only other playable game came in Week 7 (6/85/2). Stills will see a decent amount of CB Malcolm Butler, which make him a tougher dance in Week 12.
Paul Richardson (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,800): Richardson has five TDs in 2017, which came over his first seven games with one impact game (6/105/2). Over his last three games, Paul has nine catches for 140 yards and no TDs on 13 targets. He averages only 4.9 targets per game. His matchup vs. CB Dontae Johnson looks favorable, but he needs this game to be played at a fast pace to create more chances. Priced a bit high for his opportunity even with a favorable matchup.
Tyler Lockett (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,400): Lockett doesn't have a TD in 2017 while being beat by Richardson in too many weeks. His best game came in Week 8 (6/121) with minimal value in five of his last six games (3/26, 4/29, 2/10, 1/16, and 4/37). Tyler averages 5.4 targets per game. Nothing more than a gamble in any format.
Marqise Lee (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,300): Lee continues to get top WR targets in Jacksonville over the last five weeks. Over this stretch, Marqise has 38 catches for 330 yards and two TDs on 48 targets. He's gained fewer than 10.0 yards per catch over his last three games, which hurts his explosiveness. Lee is once again on the injury report in Week 12 with a knee issue while expecting to play on Sunday. The Cardinals are 25th in the league defending WRs (117/1701/11 on 208 targets) with one WR gaining over 100 yards (Golden Tate – 10/107). He's expected to see CB Patrick Peterson in coverage, which is a below matchup. Priced low for his opportunity (7.8 targets per game).
Corey Coleman (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,800): Coleman hit the ground running in his first game back against the top WR defense in the league. He caught six of his 11 targets for 80 yards. Only one other receiver gained over 70 yards vs. Jacksonville (Antonio Brown – 10/157) while picking up the third highest total in catches. The Bengals are 5th in the NFL against WRs (91/1190/8 on 182 targets). Only one WR has over 75 yards receiving against the Bengals (Geronimo Allison – 6/122). Not a layup as many will think based on his success in Week 11.
Dede Westbrook (DK – $3,600/FD – $4,900): Westbrook was on the field for 35 of 78 plays in his first NFL game. He caught three of his six targets for 35 yards with a fumble. Game score and weather hurt his big pay ability. This week Dede will get a few more snaps and chances. CB Tramon Williams has a long career in the NFL, but he's past his prime at age 34. Westbrook will test Williams deep. Priced where one long TD puts Dede in the cashing window in the daily games.