Week 13 TE Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Rob Gronkowski (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,100): Gronkowski worked his way to 3rd in TE scoring while being one good game away from the top spot. He finished with five catches for 82 yards and two TDs on eight targets. Rob has three other games of value (6/116/1, 8/89/1, and 6/83/2). Gronk averages 7.4 targets per game. Last season he had five catches for 109 yards and a TD against the Bills in Buffalo, which was the case in 2015 (@BUF – 7/113/1). In his career, Gronkowski has 52 catches for 813 yards and 11 TDs against Buffalo in 11 games. The Bills are 11th in the league defending TEs (56/621/2 on 78 targets). Buffalo’s worst game defending the TE came vs. Tampa (12/158/2) with each other team scoring 15.10 Fantasy points or fewer in PPR leagues. Great history in this matchup, which has to put him in play. Over the next four weeks, Rob played teams where he scored 35 TDs in 39 games pointing to a fun ride.
Travis Kelce (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,000): Kelce struggled in Week 12 (3/39 on four targets). It was his fourth short game on the year (5/40, 1/1, and 4/37). Travis has four games with over 100 yards receiving (8/103/1, 7/111/1, 7/133/1, and 8/109) while averaging 7.8 targets per game. The Jets played well vs. the TE in the last two weeks (TB – 1/10 and CAR – 2/25). They rank 26th in the league against TEs (47/548/6 on 81 targets) while failure over four straight games mid-season (CLE – 6/72/1, NE – 6/83/2, MIA – 6/83/1, and ATL – 6/67/1). Bounce back game expected, but he needs the Chiefs to play better offensively (36 points over the last three games).
Evan Engram (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,900): Engram lost his way in his last two games (1/9 and 3/18), but he did have 13 combined targets. His yards (31) were short in Week 10 as well. He did score a TD in that game to help his playable value in all formats. Over his last six games, Evan has 25 catches for 279 yards and four TDs on 51 targets (7.3 targets per game). Oakland ranks 12th against TEs (55/617/4 on 78 targets) with two teams having success (LAC – 6/106 and 8/93/1). Sliding salary and his scoring ability puts him in the TE thoughts, but the change at QB may hurt his scoring ability.
Delanie Walker (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,400): Walker scored his first receiving TD last week, which gave him his fifth straight steady games (7/63, 5/71, 6/63, 6/92, and 4/63/1). Delanie averages seven targets per game. In Week 4, he had three catches for 51 yards on seven targets against the Texans. Houston allowed over 19 Fantasy points to the TE in PPR leagues in five of their last nine games. TEs have 59 catches for 639 yards and six TDs on 84 targets against Tennessee with NE (9/108/1), KC (13/145), SEA (5/47/2), and ARI (4/64/2) having the best games. Walker should be the top receiving option against Houston this week for the Titans while extending his scoring streak.
Jimmy Graham (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,700): Graham continues earn his playable value by scoring TDs. He has eight TDs over his last seven games, but he has fewer than 60 yards receiving in each of these games. Over his span, Jimmy averaged 7.6 targets per game. The Eagles held TEs to fewer than 15 Fantasy points in nine of their 11 games with their worst showing coming in Week 7 (WAS – 13/163/2). The Chiefs had the other game of value at TE vs. the Eagles (8/103/1). On the year, TEs have 52 catches for 525 yards and four TDs on 75 targets against Philadelphia. This matchup isn’t a high upside for Graham.
Jared Cook (DK – $5,400/FD – $5,500): Over the last two games, Cook only has three catches for 38 yards on ten targets. He had two strong games (6/107 and 8/126) over his three previous starts. Jared only has one TD, which came in Week 3. He averages 5.9 targets per game. The Giants allow the most Fantasy points to TEs (62/768/10 on 98 targets). New York allowed a TD to a TE in each of the first nine games. With the Raiders having issues at WR this week, Cook has a very good chance at seeing a bump in targets with a TD expected. Wise guy TE play in Week 13.
Jack Doyle (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,700): Doyle now has six games with six catches or more with one impact game (12/121/1). Over his last six games, Jack has 42 catches for 381 yards and two TDs on 54 targets (nine targets per game). In Week 7, he had six catches for 44 yards on seven targets against the Jaguars. Jacksonville fell to 24th defending TEs (48/522/4 on 73 targets) after struggling against Arizona (8/107/1) in Week 12. The only other team to post a winning score at TE vs. Jacksonville was the Titans (6/91/1).
Hunter Henry (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,400): Henry remains a tough start in the season long games due to his inconsistent opportunity. Hunter averages only four targets per game with most of his production coming in five games (7/80, 3/42/1, 5/90, 4/73, and 5/76/1). Over his other six games, he only has seven catches for 59 yards with a TD on 12 targets. The Chargers had him on the field for 79 percent of the offensive plays in Week 12. The Browns are 31st in the NFL against TEs (69/649/9 on 91 targets). Cleveland allowed a TD to a TE in their last four games. Their biggest failure defending the TE came in Week 4 (8/95/2) against the Bengals. Favorable matchup, but his targets need a huge improvement to offer an impact game and his salary looks to be too high for his opportunity.
Kyle Rudolph (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,000): Over the last two games, Rudolph had three catches for over 20 yards after delivering only one over his first nine starts. His opportunity has been stronger over his last seven games (36 catches for 320 yards with four TDs on 50 targets). He had his best game of the season in Week 12 (4/63/2) despite only seeing four targets. Kyle averages 5.9 targets per game. The Falcons sit 10th in the league against TEs (55/574/2 on 85 targets) one team scoring over 20 Fantasy points (SEA – 9/57/1). Solid 5/50 guy in most weeks now, which leave him a TD and a big play away from being in the mix at this level. Not the best matchup, but he is trending in the right direction.
Greg Olsen (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,800): Maybe I'm writing off Olsen too early this week after leaving his first game with another foot issue. Last week Greg was on the field for 24 of 72 plays leading to one catch for ten yards on four targets. After missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, he was able to get back on the field on Friday giving him a chance to play on Sunday. Tough to believe in him at this point of the year even with a favorable salary. Maybe next week.
Charles Clay (DK – $4,100/DK – $5,500): Clay made some progress last week (4/60), but he only had four targets. Over his three games since returning from his knee issue, Charles has nine catches for 100 yards and no TDs on 11 targets. Over the first four games, he had three steady games (4/53/1, 6/39/1, and 5/112) while averaging 6.25 targets per game. The Patriots held TEs to fewer than 11 Fantasy points per game over last five games after struggling in five of their first six games against the TE (KC – 7/55/1, NO – 7/70/1, HOU – 6/75/1, TB – 5/58/1, and NYJ – 8/46/1). A chaser game works in Clay's favor while remaining at risk due to his knee not being where it needs to be.
Austin Seferian Jenkins (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,800): Seferian-Jenkins doesn't have a TD in his last four games, but he did have one called back last week. He's gained fewer than 50 yards receiving in eight of his nine games while scoring three TDs. Austin averages 6.3 targets per game. The Chiefs haven't allowed a TD to the TE in 2017, but they have been beat for long yards by the TE in multiple games (PHI – 6/107, WAS – 5/110, and OAK 6/107). Low chance of scoring and his skill set in big plays hurts his upside in this game.
Julius Thomas (DK – $3,500/FD – $5,200): Thomas had his second-best game (5/52) of the season last week, which isn't saying much. His only game of value came in Week 9 against the Raiders (6/84/1). Julius averages 4.6 targets per game with two TDs on the year. The Broncos do have risk defending TEs (28th – 59/771/7 on 86 targets). Six teams scored 19 or more Fantasy points against Denver (DAL – 10/97/1, BUF – 7/70/1, NYG – 6/88/1, KC – 7/133/1, PHI – 5/80/1, and NE – 8/123/1). Favorable matchup with a weak resume points to gamble play due to him being the fourth option in the passing game.
Austin Hooper (DK – $3,400/FD – $5,400): Hooper only has one game with over 50 yards receiving in 2017, which came in Week 1 (2/128/1). Over his last nine games, Austin has two games (4/47/1 and 6/49/1) with mid-teen scores while averaging 4.8 targets per game. The Vikings are 5th in the NFL defending TEs (51/483/3) with no team scoring over 17 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. Not a great matchup, but his salary does give him a chance.
Tyler Kroft (DK – $3,300/FD – $5,600): Kroft is listed on the injury report this week with a wrist issue. He has three catches or fewer in his last four games with two TDs on 15 targets. His only game of value came in Week 4 (6/68/2), but he did score a TD vs. the Steelers in Week 7 (4/23/1). Pittsburgh has the third best defense in the league defending TEs (44/482/1 on 74 targets). More risk than reward and he's not playing at a high level.
Ricky Seals-Jones (DK – $3,200/FD – $5,600): A Fantasy owner has to be intrigued by Seals-Jones based on his play over the last two games. Last week I put him in the fluke column because he was only on the field for eight plays vs. the Texans. He made the most of that opportunity (3/54/2 on five targets). This week Ricky saw his playing time grow to 17 plays (24 percent) while flashing repeatable success (4/72/1 on six targets). His college resume doesn't offer much insight (123/1442/10) over 34 games, but he was trying to earn his keep at WR. His tweener skill set will create mismatch problems, but his lack of snaps gives him failure risk. The Rams are 4th in the league defending TEs with no team scoring over 18 Fantasy points. Like his direction, but his success will draw much more attention from LA’s defense in Week 13. Still a long shot based on matchup, but Ricky does have talent.