DraftKings – Week 14 RB Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Todd Gurley (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,500): Gurley's hold on the top RB spot in the NFL may end this week with Le'Veon Bell and Alvin Kamara charging down the home stretch. Last week Todd had 158 combined yards with six catches, bit he failed to score a TD for the third time in his last four games. Gurley averages 22.6 touches per game while being on pace for 2,000+ yards with 60 catches and 15 TDs. The Eagles are the second-best team in the NFL against RBs. They allow 3.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring three rushing TDs. In the passing game, RBs have 68 catches for 499 yards and five TDs on 91 targets vs. the Philly. High volume back, but he needs to find his scoring rhythm again to be in the mix in the top end. Not ideal.
Melvin Gordon (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,600): The fun Gordon left the building in Week 6 (150 combined yards with two TDs and nine catches). Over his last six games, Melvin has only two TDs while averaging just over 20 touches per game. Over this stretch, he had only two games with over 100 combined yards (139 and 106). He been on the field for about 63 percent of the time over his last four games compared to 81.3 percent of the time over his five first full games. The Redskins have risk vs. the RB position (28th – 1,610 combined yards with 13 TDs and 58 catches). Winning matchup with high upside if his thorn (Austin Ekeler) doesn't steal his scoring upside.
LeSean McCoy (DK – $7,200/FD – $9,000): McCoy looked good last week (15/93 – 6.2 yards per rush), but he didn't score with only two catches for nine yards. On the year, LeSean has three games with over 100 yards rushing and five TDs. He averages 21.25 touches per game. The Colts are 24th in the league vs. RBs (1,783 combined yards with ten TDs and 57 catches). Indy held their last five opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing with two TDs after showing risk in three games earlier in the year (SEA – 29/156/1, TEN – 34/168/2, and JAC – 33/177/2). Excellent chance at producing a great game, but he needs better QB play preferably Tyron Taylor behind center.
Leonard Fournette (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,300): Fournette was on the field for a season high 83 percent of the Jaguars' plays last week. He finished with 23 touches for 79 combined yards with a TD and three catches. Leonard gained short yards per carry in three of his last four games (1.9, 2.1, and 2.9), which just shows he's isn't healthy. Last week he limped off the field a couple of times. Fournette averages 23.2 touches per game. Seattle has the third best defense in the league defending RBs (1,290 combined yards with 11 TDs and 54 catches). The Seahawks allow 3.8 yards per rush. Stud upside when healthy, but this is a poor matchup especially with bad wheels.
Christian McCaffrey (DK – $6,700/FD – $6,800): McCaffrey played through a shoulder issue last week. The Panthers had him on the field for 40 of 57 plays. He finished 11 touches for 49 yards with five catches and a TD. Christian has four TDs in his last four games with an uptick in yards in two of those games (Week 9 – 94 combined yards with a TD and five catches and Week 12 – 97 combined yards with two catches). He averages 12.2 touches per game while being on pace for 80 catches for 668 receiving yards. RBs have 60 catches for 429 yards and one TD on 90 targets against the Vikings. Still overpriced for his 2017 resume unless he turned into Alvin Kamara over the last month of the year. This isn’t a great matchup.
Kareem Hunt (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,200): Hunt slipped to 6th RB scoring after fifth straight poor game (9.80, 10.10, 10.70, 3.60, and 9.30 Fantasy points). Over this span, Kareem averaged 16.6 touches per game while averaging 59 yards per game with no TDs and 14 combined catches. In Week 7, Hunt had 117 combined yards on 22 touches with four catches against the Raiders. Oakland is 18th league defending RBs (1,733 combined yards with nine TDs with 73 catches). Prior to the last two games against the sliding Broncos and hopeless Giants, the Raiders allowed 30+ points to four of their six games. On the negative side, Oakland allowed under 95 yards rushing in six of their last seven games. He’s not this bad and this matchup points to a move back in a favorable direction. His sliding salary puts him back in play in Week 14.
Carlos Hyde (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,700): Hyde doesn't have a TD in his last six games. He's gained fewer than 3.5 yards per rush in six of his last eight games. Carlos has one game with over 100 yards rushing and two other games with over 100 combined yards. His floor is higher than most due to his value in the passing game (52/307). Over his last six games, Hyde has 49 targets. Houston allows 4.1 yards per rush with only three rushing TDs allowed. Over the last two games, the Texans struggled vs. the run (31/139/1 and 25/198/2). This ended a five week stretch with no TDs allowed to the RB position. In the passing game, RBs have 50 catches for 377 yards and three TDs on 63 targets against Houston. Nice floor, but he rarely breaks free in the second level of the defense while needing a prayer to reach the end zone.
Jamaal Williams (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,600): Williams had his best game of the year rushing the ball in Week 13 (123 combined yards with a TD and two catches). He now has over 20 Fantasy points in back-to-back games while averaging almost 23 touches per game over the last month. Last week the Packers gave him 48 of 55 running back plays, but Aaron Jones looked healthy in overtime when he ran his only carry in for a 20-yard TD. The Browns are 8th in the league defending RBs (3.3 yards per rush with five rushing TDs). RBs have 60 catches for 528 yards and three TDs on 79 targets against Cleveland. Developing into a workhorse back, but this isn't a great matchup while Jones may steal some touches going forward.
Lamar Miller (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,600): Miller has 75 rushing yards or fewer in all 12 games. He gained less than 3.8 yards per rush in each of his last three games with reasonable value in the run game (31/309/3). On the year, Lamar averages 18.75 touches per game with six TDs. The 49ers are 30th vs. RBs (2,010 combined yards with ten TDs and 72 catches). San Fran did play better stopping the bleeding in rushing TDs (1) over the last four games. The early signs points to an upside matchup and Tom Savage did look better last week (365 yards). His new problem for playing time comes from Andre Ellington who was on the field for 47 of 81 plays compared to 65 by Miller.
Marshawn Lynch (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,400): Lynch played well in his last two games (231 combined yards with two TDs and five catches). Marshawn now has four TDs over his last four games. He need 442 yards rushing (325 combined yards) to reach 1,000 on the year. Oakland only had him on the field for 32 of 65 plays last week compared to 47 of 68 in Week 12. Lynch only had two rushes for nine yards in his first game against the Chiefs due to an early exit for bumping into a ref. Kansas City is 25th in the league against RBs (1,832 combined yards with 11 TDs and 50 catches). The Chiefs allowed over 100 yards rushing in 11 of their 12 games. Moving in the right direction while remaining in the rotational situation. Possible TD with mid-level yards.
Samaje Perine (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,600): Perine failed to extend his 100-yard rushing streak in his last matchup. He finished with 69 combined yards last week with three catches on 15 touches. Over his last three games, Samaje has 66 touches with 325 yards with two TDs and seven catches. He's now the 45th ranked RB after 12 games (12th over the last three weeks) while being 35 Fantasy points out of 24th place in RB rankings. The Chargers are 19th in the NFL against RBs (1,949 combined yards with eight TDs and 72 catches). The Redskins' RBs have a top-ten opportunity (1,753 combined yards with 11 TDs and 63 catches) in 2017, but Byron Marshall is inching his way into the passing down plays. Winnable matchup with plenty of chances, but he needs a TD and some catches to reach his salary bucket.
Alfred Morris (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,800): Morris gave Dallas an Elliott-type game in Week 13 (27/127/1). Over the last four games, Alfred has 64 touches for 307 yards with a TD. Last week he was on the field for a season high 36 plays last week, which was 52.9 percent of the plays run by Dallas. The Giants are 21st in the league defending RBs (1,977 combined yards with nine TDs and 58 catches). RBs have over 100 yards rushing in 11 of their 12 games in 2017 due to game score and over 30 rushes per game. In Week 1, New York allowed 141 combined yards to the Cowboys. Possible follow through, but he does have some playing time risk if game score goes in the wrong direction.
Jordan Howard (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,000): Howard struggled in his last two games (7/6 and 13/38) while being on the field for 45 of 92 plays. Jordan rushed for over 100 yards in four games this year with five TDs (one in his last eight games). The lack of QB play really hurt his playable value over this stretch leading to short plays and low time of possession (22:52 and 21:13). The Bengals fell to 26th in RB Fantasy defense (686 combined yards with four TDs and 21 catches). Power back with plenty of risk and minimal upside in scoring ability.
Jerick McKinnon (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,000): McKinnon finished with similar yards (52) last week as his previous three games (47, 60, and 54), but he scored a TD with five catches to deliver three times his salary. Over his last eight games, Jerick has five TDs and 33 catches while averaging 80 yards and 17.25 touches per game. RBs have 68 catches for 529 yards and a TD on 88 targets against the Panthers. McKinnon struggled to find running room over his last six games (3.4, 3.6, 3.2, 3.4, 1.8, and 2.7). More steady than explosive with Latavius Murray being the better player on early downs and at the goal line.
Joe Mixon (DK – $5,200/FD – $7,100): Mixon left last week's game with a concussion after gaining 42 yards on eight touches and a catch. This came after his best game of the year (165 combined yards with a TD and three catches). His status isn't clear headed into Thursday, so a Fantasy owner will need to follow his progress headed into Sunday. The Bears are 12th in the league defending RBs (1,615 combined yards with nine TDs and 63 catches). Seven of the last eight opponents rushed for over 100 yards vs. Chicago. Mixon is improving with a three-down opportunity if he's cleared to play.
Latavius Murray (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,400): Murray ran the ball well again last week (97 combined yards with three catches). Over his last six games, Latavius has 505 combined yards with five TDs and five catches while averaging 18.3 touches per game. Carolina tends to play well vs. the run (4.0 yards per rush) with RBs scoring seven rushing TDs, but they did get beat by the Saints' run game last week (28/148/3) with some slide over the last three games (61/357/4). Not a great matchup while his game is on the rise. His success is built on scoring TDs with minimal upside in the passing game. I’ll pass in this matchup.
Derrick Henry (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,000): For the second time in 2017, Henry hit on a long run for a TD (75 yards) to deliver his second game with over 100 yards rushing. Over his last two games, Derrick has 198 combined yards with a TD and a catch while receiving 25 touches. He lost the snap battle to DeMarco Murray (32 to 24) again in Week 13 bring the season battle to 504 to 296. Over the last four games of the year, Henry needs 316 yards to reach 1,000 yards. Still a coin flip for playing time while Fantasy owners could use a big run out of him over the last quarter of the season.
DeMarco Murray (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,000): DeMarco ran the ball better last week (11/66) with two catches for 13 yards, which ended his six-game streak of low yards per rush (3.3, 3.3, 2.1, 3.0, 1.3, and 0.8). The Titans gave him a vote of confidence last week, which was disappointing for the Henry owners. Murray averages 14.4 touches per game with six TDs and 33 catches. The Cardinals are just below league average against RBs (1,577 combined yards with eight TDs and 74 catches). Tough to trust as his ride has more risk than reward.
Duke Johnson (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,900): Johnson came up short last week (nine touches for ten yards with two catches) while being on the field for 34 of 63 plays run by the Browns. Duke only has one TD over his last seven games. Johnson averages 9.25 touches per game with his best value coming in the passing game (52/456/2). RBs have 72 catches for 587 yards and three TDs on 90 targets against Green Bay. Cleveland should be an improved offense going forward with Josh Gordon back in the starting lineup, but it also creates more competition for targets. This matchup gives him a chance, but I'll avoid until a see his chances going forward.
Theo Riddick (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,600): Riddick earned the start last week, but the Lions only gave him 40 of 63 plays while mixing in Tion Green. Theo finished with a season high 14 touches for 62 yards with a TD and five catches. Tampa fell to 23rd in RB Fantasy defense after struggling vs. RBs over the last two games (287 combined yards with four TDs and three catches). The Bucs allow 4.3 yards per rush with RBs scoring nine TDs. Tampa tends to play better at home defensively (15.2 points per game compared to 30 points per game allowed on the road). Pass catching back with risk in touches on early downs.
Peyton Barber (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,500): The Doug Martin days in Tampa could be over even if he's cleared from his concussion. Two weeks ago, the Bucs gave Peyton the goal line carries leading to two TDs while receiving five carries in relief of Martin. He earned the start last week and he looked the part (23/102 with four catches for 41 yards). Detroit is 29th vs. RBs (1,889 combined yards with 13 TDs and 67 catches). The Lions allowed a rushing TD in each of their last seven games with five teams scoring two TDs. Playing at home with a favorable matchup and low salary puts him in play.
Jay Ajayi (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,800): Over his four games with Eagles, Ajayi has 257 combined yards with a TD and five catches while averaging 8.5 touches per game. Last week Jay led the Eagles in RB snaps (31) for the first time. The Rams are last in league defending RBs (1,886 yards with 15 TDs and 60 catches). LA allows 4.7 yards per rush. Possible explosive matchup if he happened to get the Lion's share of touches, but the Eagles will still rotate in three RB options. More of a gamble.
Orleans Darkwa (DK – $4,200/FD – $6,300): Darkwa struggled to find running room in his last two games (11/30 and 14/32/1). Over his last eight games, Orleans has 577 combined yards with three TDs and 13 catches while averaging 15.75 touches per game. Dallas sits 14th in RB Fantasy defense (1,781 combined yards with eight TDs and 69 catches). Darkwa should have less competition for snaps this week with Wayne Gallman battling a hip issue. Not a sexy name, but he is playing at home with a matchup that may offer upside.
Isaiah Crowell (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,500): Crowell came up flat last week (44 combined yards with a catch on 11 touches) in a favorable matchup. Over his last five games, Isaiah 380 combined yards with two TDs and seven catches while averaging 14.2 touches per game. GB allows 3.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring seven rushing TDs. The Packers did struggle against the run in their last two games (59/286), but they did allow a rushing TD. Possible TD, but he'll need over 100 yards rushing for the first time all year to be in play.
Frank Gore (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,500): Gore keeps plugging along with his 60 yards per game, which leaves him well below a winning play in the daily games especially when you add in one TD in his last nine games. Frank doesn't have a game with over 85 yards rushing this year. He averages 16.2 touches per game. Buffalo has been a disaster against RBs over the last six games (14 TDs with 1,149 combined yards with 38 catches). Doesn't look like much on paper, but this is a favorable matchup if riding the tortoise to the finish line is your kind of play.
Kerwynn Williams (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,000): Williams went from a possible scratch in Week 13 due to a rib issue to starter after Adrian Peterson couldn't play. Kerwynn rushed for 97 yards on 16 carries. It was his best opportunity of the season. The Cardinals had him on the field for 31 plays compared to 28 by D.J. Foster. The Titans allow only 3.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring four rushing TDs. Poor matchup if he happens to earn a start again this week.
C.J. Anderson (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,500): Anderson continues to lead the Broncos in RB snaps, but he still doesn't have a game of value since Week 2 (154 combined yards with two TDs and three catches). C.J. has one rushing TD over his last ten games. Over his last eight games, he averaged 11.9 touches per game. The Jets are fifth in the league against RBs (4.3 yards per rush with six rushing TDs). Split role with a tough matchup makes him a tough dance.
Mike Davis (DK – $3,700/FD – $5,500): The Seahawks may have found a RB of value. In his first full game, Davis was on the field for 45 of 62 plays in Week 13 leading to 101 combined yards with four catches. The Jaguars are league average defending RBs (1,698 yards with 11 TDs and 65 catches). Jacksonville can be beat at RB (4.5 yards per rush), which gives Davis chance in this matchup. Attractive price, but Seattle still has a poor offensive line. Possible trap.