Week 14 TE Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Travis Kelce (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000): Kelce looked to be in line for a special game vs. the Jets after he caught three passes for 91 yards and two TDs just five minutes into the game. Unfortunately, Kansas City couldn't get New York's offensive off the field leading to only one more catch. On the year, Kelce has five other game with over 20 Fantasy points (8/103/1, 7/111/1, 7/133/1, 7/73/1, and 8/109). In Week 7 vs. the Raiders had four catches for 33 yards and a TD. Oakland is 21st defending TEs (63/721/5 on 88 targets) with two TEs having plus games (Julius Thomas – 6/84/1 and Evan Engram – 7/99/1). Favorable matchup with high scoring ability and solid targets (7.8 per game.
Zach Ertz (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,800): Ertz left Fantasy owners holding the bag in their championship matches after leaving the game with a concussion and a short game (2/24 on four targets). This came after his best game of the year (10/103/1). Over his last ten games, Zach has seven TDs with one other game with 20+ Fantasy points (5/89/1). The Rams sit 7th in the NFL against TEs (44/498/3 on 76 targets). Jimmy Graham has the best game (6/37/1) at TE vs. LA. Ertz was cleared from his concussion this week putting him on track to play on Sunday. Not a great matchup, but he's still an edge at his position.
Evan Engram (DK – $6,000/FD – $6.600): After two small games (1/9 and 3/18) and concern with his value after the benching of Eli Manning, Engram delivered a season high in catches (7) and yards (99) while scoring his fifth TD in his last seven games. On the year, Evan averages 7.8 targets per game. In Week 1, he had four catches for 44 yards on five targets against the Cowboys. Dallas is 12th in the league vs. the TE position (57/615/4 on 79 targets) with three good games (Travis Kelce – 7/73/1, Austin Hooper – 6/49/1, and Hunter Henry – 5/76/1) over the last five weeks. Top two option in the passing game for New York gives him a WR2 type opportunity.
Delanie Walker (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,600): Walker has short targets (5 and 5) in his last two games, but he caught nine of those targets leading to two steady games (4/63/1 and 5/63/1). Over his last six games, Delanie has 33 catches for 415 yards and two TDs on 43 targets. Arizona ranks 18th in TE defense (53/488/5 on 84 targets). They did struggle in three games (IND – 9/99, PHI – 9/82/1, and TB – 8/96/1). Walker continues to be limited at practice while playing on Sunday. Best receiving option on the team with plenty of trust from Marcus Mariota.
Jimmy Graham (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,900): The Graham TD machine scored for the fourth straight game last week bringing his total to nine TDs in his last eight games. Even with his success, Jimmy has fewer than 60 yards receiving in these games. He averages seven targets per game. A season long battle with an ankle issue lowered his yards per catch to 9.1 yards, which is well below his success in 2016 (14.2). The Jaguars are league average against TEs (53/549/4 on 80 targets) with their biggest failure coming in Week 2 (6/91/1) and Week 12 (8/107/1). Graham remains limited with an ankle issue while expecting to play on Sunday. Jacksonville has strength at CB so Jimmy will be the top choice to score in Seattle again this week.
Jack Doyle (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,400): Doyle struggled to find open field last week against Jacksonville leading to his second short games in three weeks (2/9 and 3/16). Over his last seven games, Jack had six catches or more in five games with one impact game (12/121/1). He averages 7.4 targets per game with a strong catch rate (75.6). The Bills fell to 20th defending TEs (66/771/2 on 91 targets) after struggled with the Patriots' TEs and Rob Gronkowski (10/150 on 13 targets). The other team to beat Buffalo at TE came in Week 7 against Tampa (12/158/2). Volume can be his friend while being a top two option in the Colts' passing attack. Sneaky play in Week 14.
Kyle Rudolph (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,000): Rudolph only has nine targets over his last two games, but he did catch eight of his catches for 99 yards with three TDs. Over his last eight games, Kyle has 40 catches for 356 yards and five TDs on 55 targets. The Panthers are sixth defending TEs (38/407/5 on 62 targets) with only two teams gaining over 45 yards. Tough matchup while lacking big play ability in most games.
Jason Witten (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,800): Witten has more dud than stud in his game over the last ten games. Five times over this span, Jason only had one catch in a game. His best value came in Week 1 (NYG – 7/59/1) and Week 2 (10/97/1) when Fantasy owners had visions of a sustained ride. Witten has five games with seven catches or more, which gives him a reasonable floor in some matchups. The Giants moved up one spot to 31st in TE defense (67/834/10) after playing better vs. TEs in the last two games (3/16 and 5/66). Nine teams scored over 15 Fantasy points against New York with three bad games (PHI – 10/62/1, TB – 6/143/2, and KC – 9/120). Not really a 20+ point option anymore, but a TD and solid catches does give him a solid floor in this matchup.
Hunter Henry (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,600): Henry officially moved into the top 12 in TE scoring in PPR leagues after playing well in his last two games (5/76/1 and 7/81). Last week he had a season high nine targets while posting two other mid-teen games (7/80 and 5/90). Hunter has been on the field for over 70 percent of the TE snaps in LA. The Redskins have risk at TE (28th – 64/804/6 on 89 targets). Five teams drilled Washington at TE this year (PHI – 9/104, LAR – 4/104, KC – 7/111/1, PHI – 7/99/1, and NO – 6/94/2). Rivers knows how to beat teams with his TEs and Washington does have some talent at CB. Henry should be very active in this game with a chance at his first game with over 20 Fantasy points. He did get banged up last week with a knee issue while expecting to play on Sunday. Excellent value play.
Greg Olsen (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,800): Olsen had one catch for ten yards on four targets in Week 12 in his first game back in the starting lineup after missing eight games. A set back with his foot issue led to another week off last week. In his first game back, the Panthers had him on the field for 24 of 72 plays. Greg turned in a full practice on Wednesday, which points to only baby steps vs. the Vikings. Minnesota is 8th in the NFL defending TEs (56/529/4 on 88 targets) with no team scoring over 17 Fantasy points. Not ready for a ride in the daily games.
Cameron Brate (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,400): Brate continued his shallow ways in catches in Week 14, but both of his catches resulted in TDs to put a pulse back in his game. Over his last five games, Cameron only has six combined catches for 76 yards and two TDs on 18 targets. O.J. Howard has out snapped Brate in five straight games with his biggest margin coming last week (55 to 32). The Lions faded vs. TEs (46/695/6 on 74 targets) over the last three games due to four TDs allowed. Only one team has over six catches against Detroit, but they can get beat deep by TEs highlighted by their failure in Week 2 (7/108/1) and Week 5 (5/175). Mixed emotions here. The return of Jameis Winston points to more value at TE while Howard may be the better option soon.
Jared Cook (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,700): Cook stuck it to me last week even with a primo matchup vs. the lowly Giants' TE defense. He now has three straight short games (2/36, 1/2, and 1/9) while receiving five targets to each game. His game was trending upward in two of his three previous games (6/107 and 8/126) with the first game coming against the Chiefs. His last and only TD came in Week 3. Kansas City moved to 5th in TE defense (42/658 on 71 targets). The Chiefs haven't allowed a TD to the TE all season. Fade for me.
Vernon Davis (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,800): Davis lost his way over the last two games (0/0 and 2/15) with only three combined targets. This came as a surprised considering how much Kirk Cousins looks toward the TE position (73/828/4 on 97 targets). Vernon had over 60 yards receiving in six of his previous seven games prior to his fade, but he didn't score a TD in any of those games. Part of his failure is due to poor play by the offensive line (ten sacks allowed over the last two games) requiring him to block. The Chargers have the top TE defense in the league (50/598/2 on 77 targets), but they were beat at TE last week (6/107/1). LA also has a top pass rush (35 sacks) so I would look elsewhere for upside at TE.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK – $3,600/FD – $5,900): The fun ride of the Jets' passing game over the last two games didn't look include Seferian-Jenkins (2/27 and 2/7) while receiving ten targets. Austin hasn't scored a TD in his last five games. He has fewer than 30 yards receiving in six of his ten games while averaging six targets per game. Denver allows the third most Fantasy points to TEs (63/820/8 on 90 targets) with most of the damage coming in three games (DAL – 10/97/1, KC – 7/133/1, and NE – 8/123/1). This looks like his chance to dance in the Jets’ passing game.
Ricky Seals-Jones (DK – $3,400/FD – $4,500): Over the last three games, Seal-Jones has nine catches for 180 yards and three TDs on 16 targets. Last week his playing time remained short (15 of 64 plays). Ricky was wide open for another TD vs. the Rams, but Blaine Gabbert over threw him. The Titans allowed over 15 Fantasy points to the TE position in five of their last ten games with the most failure coming against Seattle (10/125), IND – 7/50/1, and HOU – 7/95/1). TEs have 61 catches for 656 yards and three TDs against Tennessee. This guy has upside talent while being a matchup problem. Worth a swing in a GPPs even with short playing time.
Stephen Anderson (DK – $3,200/FD – $4,500): Anderson earned the starting TE job over the last week after C.J. Fiedorowicz suffered a season ending concussion. He came off the bench last week to catch five of 12 targets for 79 yards and a TD. On the year, the Texans' TEs have 49 catches for 607 yards and two TDs on 89 targets. The 49ers are 13th against TEs (49/490/6 on 75 targets). All the TDs allowed to TEs came over the last six games with one team scoring over 20 Fantasy points from the TE position (SEA – 5/63/2). Possible TD, but he won’t have a high-volume opportunity.
Charles Clay (DK – $3,100/FD – $5,400): Clay has been quiet over his last four games (2/13, 3/27, 4/60, and 3/20) with 13 combined targets. Over this span, he's been on the field for 61.2 percent of the plays run by Buffalo compared to over 80 percent in his first four healthy games. Indy is 24th defending TEs (52/638/5 on 77 targets) with minimal damage over the last seven games (5/27, 3/36/1, 5/46, 4/44, 2/16, 4/63/1, and 5/75). Can't trust his matchup or the health of Tyrod Taylor.
David Njoku (DK – $3,000/FD – $4,700): Njoku had his best game of the season last week (4/74/1 on six targets). David only sees 4.1 targets per game while splitting TE snaps with Seth DeValve. The Packers have the second best TE defense (48/497/3 on 71 targets) in the league with only one team scoring over 14 Fantasy points. Talented kid, but he's opportunity is below a winning play in most weeks.