Week 16 WR Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Julio Jones (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,500): Julio came up short again last week (3/54 on eight targets). Over last six games, Jones has one impact game (12/253/2) and four short scores (6/57, 5/71, 2/24, and 5/98) for his high salary. He averages nine targets per game with only three TDs. Julio is back on the injury report with ankle and thumb issues. Two weeks ago, he scored 14.8 Fantasy points vs. the Saints. New Orleans sits 14th defending WRs (159/2083/10 on 267 targets). Two WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Saints (Adam Thielen – 9/157 and Cooper Kupp – 8/116). Jones has a tough matchup with CB Marshon Lattimore. Great player who has a tough matchup as far as CB. Fade, but his path will make him a low percentage play.
Keenan Allen (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,300): After his great run over four games (12/159/2, 11/172/1, 10/105/1, and 6/111) with 49 targets, Allen struggled to get open last week (5/54 on eight targets while leaving early with a back issue. The latest reports have him ready to play on Sunday. On the year, Keenan averages 9.8 targets per game. New York has risk against WRs (24th – 63/2076/15 on 273 targets) with two WRs gaining over 100 yards (Devin Funchess – 7/108 and Tyreek Hill – 6/185/2). The Jets allowed a 20-point WR in each of the last four games (Demaryius Thomas – 8/93/1 and Michael Thomas – 9/93/1 plus the two option previously mentioned). Allen will have a huge edge over CB Buster Skrine. Possible double-digit catches with over 100 yards receiving and a TD.
Michael Thomas (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,200): Thomas played great in his last two games (10/117/1 and 9/93/1) with 25 combined targets. He has a TD in three straight games and last week he came within inches of scoring two other TDs. Michael is on pace for 107 catches for 1,240 yards and six TDs on 155 targets pushing him to 4th in WRs scoring in PPR leagues. Two weeks ago, he had his best game of the year vs. the Falcons (27.7 Fantasy points). Atlanta is about league average defending WRs (167/1892/12 on 262 targets). Two WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Falcons (Robby Anderson – 6/104/1 and Michael Thomas – 10/117/1). They’ve allowed four of their 12 TDs to WRs over the last two weeks. Atlanta rarely moves their CBs around leading to a favorable matchup for Thomas over CB Robert Alford. Hot player with rising scoring ability.
Brandin Cooks (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,200): Cooks has been relatively quiet over his last three games (2/17, 1/38, and 4/60/1) while receiving only 17 combined targets. His first game over this stretch came against the Bills. Brandin has two impact games (5/131/2 and 6/149/1) while receiving only seven targets per game. Buffalo is 10th in the NFL against WRs (170/1960/7 on 282 targets). Three WRs have strong games against the Bills (A.J. Green – 7/189/1, Michael Thomas – 9/117, and Keenan Allen – 12/159/2). His matchup with CB E.J. Gaines looks about neutral. Big play type WR with more bust than boom in 2017. Overpriced for his opportunity.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,500): Larry is batting .500 over his last six games (10/113, 9/91/1, 3/12, 10/98/1, 5/44, and 5/60). Fitzgerald has two other games of value (13/149/1 and 10/138/1). Four of his best five games came at home over seven starts. He has eight games with double-digit targets while averaging 9.5 targets per game. The Giants are 20th defending WRs (159/2197/14 on 261 targets) with two WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving (Demaryius Thomas – 10/133 and Jamison Crowder – 7/141/1). Larry will have an edge over CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Possible, but it comes down to the QB play in Arizona.
A.J. Green (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,800): The Bengals couldn’t get the Vikings’ offense off the field last week. This led to Green only seeing four targets with two catches for 30 yards. Over the last two games, A.J. only caught seven of his 16 targets for 94 yards. Green has four strong games (10/111/1, 7/189/1, 5/115/1, and 7/77/2) while averaging 8.7 targets per game. The Lions are 17th against the WR position (179/2222/8 on 288 targets). Detroit hasn’t allowed a TD to a WR over the last five games. Two WRs have over 100 yards receiving vs. the Lions (Juju Smith-Schuster – 7/193/1 and Mike Wallace – 5/116). CB Darius Slay is one of the better CBs in the league who shadowed a WR in most weeks. Favorable salary, but his QB isn’t playing well.
Devin Funchess (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,000): Funchess isn’t 100 percent due to a lingering shoulder issue. Last week the Panthers had him on the field for 64 of 75 plays. Devin finished with only one catch for 19 yards on four targets. Over his four previous games, he had 19 catches for 319 yards and four TDs on 32 targets. Funchess missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, which may put him at risk on Sunday. In Week 8, he only had two catches for 11 yards on six targets against the Bucs. Tampa remains last in the NFL defending WRs (204/2662/16 on 304 targets). Five WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Bucs (Stefon Diggs – 8/173/2, Larry Fitzgerald – 10/138/1, Deonte Thompson – 4/107, Kenny Stills – 7/180/1, and Julio Jones – 12/253/2) with all games coming on the road. Winning matchup if he was healthy. Need more info on his status before hitting the submit button.
Sterling Shepard (DK – $6,800/FD – $6,700): Shepard went from dud to stud in one easy week. The Cowboys held him to two catches for 16 yards on three targets in Week 14 despite being on the field for all of the WR plays. For the second time in 2017, the Eagles’ pass defense struggled to cover Sterling (7/133/1 and 11/139/1). His other game of value (11/142) came in Week 10 vs. the 49ers. Arizona is 16th defending WRs (155/2089/13 on 276 targets). The Cardinals played well vs. WRs over the last four games (JAC – 9/84, LAR – 11/109/1, TEN – 9/104, and WAS – 9/91/1). S Tyrann Mathieu is playing better pointing a short game from Shepard on the road. Priced high for his overall resume in 2017. Only one WR has over 100 yards receiving against Arizona, which came in Week 1 (Golden Tate – 10/107).
Tyreek Hill (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,400): Hill hit on a long play (64-yard TD) in Week 15 setting up a nice day (5/88/1 on six targets) against the Chargers. His other three games of value (@NE – 7/133/1, @OAK – 6/125/1, and @NYJ – 6/185/2) came on the road. Tyreek has eight catches of 40 yards or more with seven TDs while averaging only seven targets per game. Similar player to Brandin Cooks with more short area quickness. Miami will press at the line and play man coverage, which will favor Hill to hit on a long play. The Dolphins now have the fourth best defense in the NFL against WRs (130/1809/11 on 221 targets). Tyreek should be shadowed by the improving CB Xavier Howard who shutout Cooks two weeks ago on five targets. Flash player who the Chiefs need to get into favorable situations.
Robert Woods (DK – $6,500/FD – $6,600): It didn’t take long to see that Woods is still the top WR option for Jared Goff in the Rams’ offense. In a blowout game with minimal receiving chances, Robert caught six of his seven targets for 45 yards and a TD. Over his last four games played, he has 26 catches for 367 yards and five TDs on 33 targets. Woods has five catches or more in seven of his last nine games setting up a high floor in PPR league. The Titans are 23rd vs. the WR position (174/2078/15 on 283 targets) with five WRs have over 100 yards receiving against Tennessee (Doug Baldwin – 10/105/1, DeAndre Hopkins – 10/107/1, A.J. Green – 5/115/1, Antonio Brown – 10/144/2, and Marquise Goodwin – 10/114). Improving player who will look to get away from CB Adoree Jackson to produce a winning score. Priced high for his career resume in the NFL, but LA has one of the top offenses in the NFL while the Titans try to figure how to stop Todd Gurley.
Mike Evans (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,000): Evans ended his scoring drought at six games with a steady game against the Falcons (5/79/1). He has fewer than ten targets in three straight games with Jameis Winston back in the starting lineup. Mike is still looking for his first game with over 100 yards receiving while averaging 8.8 targets per game (10.8 in 2016). In Week 8, he had five catches for 60 yards on eight targets against the Panthers. Carolina faded to 27th in WR defense (180/2189/15 on 296 targets) after allowing over 200 yards to WRs in four of their last six games with nine TDs over this span. CB James Bradberry is fading, and the injuries to the receiving core in Tampa could lead to mid-teen targets for Evans in this matchup. Possible value and we know he has scoring ability.
Marvin Jones (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,300): Jones doesn’t have a TD in his last three games despite averaging 23.9 yards per catch. Over his last nine games, Marvin has 40 catches for 786 yards (19.7 yards per catch) and six TDs on 71 targets. The Bengals are 3rd in the NFL against the WRs (136/1728/10 on 250 targets). Cinci allowed only four TDs to WRs over the last eight games. Three WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Bengals (Geronimo Allison – 6/122, Antonio Brown – 8/101/1, and Kendall Wright – 10/107). Big play WR facing a team with huge issues stopping RBs. CB Dre Kirkpatrick does have speed and talent, but he will make mistakes in the deep passing game. Dre missed the last two games with a concussion. If he sits, Jones gets a bump in value.
Josh Gordon (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,100): Over his three games back in the NFL, Gordon has 12 catches for 201 yards and a TD on 27 targets. Last week the Browns had him on the field for 55 of 64 plays. The Bears are 19th in the league against WRs (162/2119/12 on 267 targets) with only one WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving (Antonio Brown – 10/110/1). I don’t fear CB Kyle Fuller, but Gordon needs DeShone Kizer to make better throws. High upside in targets if game flow worked in the right direction. More like betting on the come for the lowest scoring team in the NFL.
Jarvis Landry (DK – $6,300/FD – $6,800): After 14 games, Landry is the 6th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues while being on pace to catch over 110 balls. Jarvis has five catches or more in each game in 2017 with six games with seven catches or more. He has eight TDs over his last 11 games and nine-game with double-digit targets. On the year, Landry averages 10.3 targets per game, but he gains only 8.6 yards per catch. The Chiefs allow the third most Fantasy points to WRs (173/2376/17 on 306 targets). Seven WRs have over 100 yards receiving against Kansas City (Danny Amendola – 6/100, Travis Benjamin – 5/105, Antonio Brown – 8/155/1, Amari Cooper – 11/210/2, Terrance Williams – 9/141, Jermaine Kearse – 9/157, and Robby Anderson – 8/107). CB Steven Nelson will have a tough time covering Jarvis in this matchup. Nice floor in the daily games with scoring ability.
Doug Baldwin (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,300): Baldwin hasn’t been an impactful player over his last five games (2/40/1, 2/25, 5/84, 3/78/1, and 1/6). Over his last six games, he only has 32 combined targets (5.3 targets per game). Doug has three games of value (10/105/1, 9/92/1, and 7/108/1). The Cowboys are 29th defending WRs (178/2038/19 on 279 targets) with their three failure games (Larry Fitzgerald – 13/149/1, Jamison Crowder – 9/123, and Keenan Allen – 11/172/1) coming vs. WRs in the slot. Baldwin should have one of his better games of the year while drawing a huge edge over slot CB Anthony Brown. Possible top WR on the week with multi TD upside.
Golden Tate (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,900): Tate struggled in Week 15 (3/33 on five targets), which was his third short game over his last five starts (3/32, 4/7, 8/69, and 8/85/1). His best success came mid-season over a four-game stretch (7/97/1, 7/86, 7/113, and 6/97/1). On the year, Golden averages 7.6 targets per game with an edge in his catch rate (76.6). Tate could be matched up with a relatively weak option at slot CB (KeiVarae Russell) due to a couple of injuries in the Bengals’ secondary. Sneaky option at this level.
Dede Westbrook (DK – $6,100/FD – $5,900): I don’t know what happened in Jacksonville last week in the receiving game, but Westbrook should have been part of the fun ride after the injury to Marqise Lee. Dede has the most WR snaps (57 of 72 plays) in Week 15 on the Jaguars, but he managed only two catches for 21 yards on two targets. This came after flashing upside over his previous three games (6/41, 6/78, and 5/81/1 on 27 targets). In a way, the success of Keelan Cole (7/186/1) was the type of stat line that would have been expected vs. the Texans. The 49ers are 18th defending WRs (157/2118/13 on 250 targets) with six WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving (Robert Woods – 6/108, Sammy Watkins – 6/106/2, Jaron Brown – 8/105, T.Y. Hilton – 7/177, Sterling Shepard – 11/142, and DeAndre Hopkins – 11/149/2). Flash player with big play ability, but his salary shot through the roof even after a dismal game.
Dez Bryant (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100): Dez came up empty vs. the Raiders (2/59 on four targets). Over his last four games, Bryant only had 21 combined targets leading to a pair of mid-teen games (5/61/1 and 3/73/1). Over the first eight games with Ezekiel Elliott in the starting line, Dez had four TDs and four games with double-digit targets. He only has one game with over 75 yards receiving in 2017. Seattle faded to 22nd in WR defense (169/2239/13 on 282 targets). The Seahawks allowed a TD to a WR in each of their last six games with two teams having a high level of success (PHI – 17/241/1 and JAC – 14/250/2). With no Richard Sherman, this pass defense has plenty of failure risk. I’d like to believe, but his lack of production and a new toy back the Cowboys’ offense make him tougher to start in the daily games.
Mohamed Sanu (DK – $5,700/FD – $5,900): Sanu has five targets or fewer in five of his last seven games. He’s scored five TDs in 2017 with fewer than 75 yards receiving in ten of his 14 games. Mohamed averages only 6.1 targets per game. In Week 14, he had one of his better games (6/83/1) against the Saints. Possible chaser game should work in his favor, but he does have a slight knee issue. Highly priced for his short chances, but a scratch of Julio Jones could lead to a bump in targets.
Demaryius Thomas (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,500): Thomas has four TDs over his last seven games plus five catches or more in 11 of his 14 starts. On the year, Demaryius averages nine targets per game with a sliding catch rate (57.9) due to poor QB play. Washington is 9th in the league against WRs (137/1870/9 on 242 targets). Three WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Redskins (Doug Baldwin – 7/108/1, Adam Thielen – 8/166/1, and Tyrell Williams – 4/132/1). Thomas should be able to avoid CB Josh Norman on many plays, but the Broncos look to be coin flipping at QB headed into this week’s game.
Cooper Kupp (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,400): Game score led to Kupp seeing only three targets last week. He finished with only two catches and 21 yards. Over his previous five games, Cooper has 30 catches for 413 yards and a TD on 38 targets. On the year, he averages 6.3 targets per game with four TDs. His matchup with CB Logan Ryan should be a slight edge, but Kupp slipped a notch in the WR rotation with Robert Wood back in the starting lineup. The Rams will score so Cooper could be worth a flier.
Marquise Goodwin (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,800): Goodwin has been a beast over the last three games (24/319 on 33 targets) with Jimmy Garoppolo behind center. Marquise only has one TD in 2017 while averaging 6.8 targets per game. He has a slight back issue headed into this week’s game while expecting to play on Sunday. The Jaguars fell to second in the league against WRs (127/1606/7 on 253 targets) with one disaster game (SEA – 10/240/3). Only one WR has over 100 yards receiving against Jacksonville (10/157). Both outside CBs for the Jaguars play well, but his biggest downside will come against CB Jalen Ramsey. On a career run, but his game doesn’t support his success long term. Avoid in Week 16.
Rishard Matthews (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,700): Matthews has a TD in three of his last five starts with 20+ Fantasy points in two of those games (5/113/1 and 6/95/1). Even with his bump in value, Rishard averaged only 6.1 targets over his last eight games. The Rams are 6th in the NFL defending WRs (161/2000/9 on 283 targets). Four WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Rams (Pierre Garcon – 7/142, DeAndre Hopkins – 7/111, Adam Thielen – 6/123, and Torrey Smith – 6/100). Marcus Mariota hasn’t played well in 2017, but he did show a spark last week. Viable option at this level with a neutral matchup against CB Troy Hill.
Robby Anderson (DK – $5,000/FD – $7,200): Anderson had two short games (3/27 and 5/40) over his last two starts. He did have 12 targets last week, which points to a bounce-back in value. Over his previous six games, Robby had 31 catches for 525 yards and six TDs with 45 targets. The Chargers played well vs. WRs over the last five games (BUF – 10/138, DAL – 10/115, CLE – 6/95, WAS – 8/103, and KC – 8/109/1) to push them to 8th in WR Fantasy defense (151/1716/11 on 258 targets). His matchup against CB Casey Hayward is unfavorable, but Tyreek Hill did beat him for a 64-yard TD last week. Not ideal, but the price is right with a chance at upside targets.
Jamison Crowder (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,900): Crowder has been a much better player over the last seven games (40/568/2 on 62 targets). Over this span, he has two playable games (9/123 and 7/141/1). The Broncos moved to first overall in WR defense after holding the Jets (4/31) and the Colts (5/41) to minimal production at WR. On the year, WRs have 118 catches for 1465 yards and 12 TDs on 212 targets against Denver with no WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving. His date with CB Chris Harris points to a losing score.
Emmanuel Sanders (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,300): Sanders continues to battle an ankle issue during the week, but he’s played a full game in his last six contests. Over this period, Emmanuel has four losing games (2/15, 3/12, 2/11, and 1/16) with one other game of value (6/137). His last and only TDs came in Week 2 (6/62/2). On the year, he averages 7.7 targets per game. Sanders projects to see CB Josh Norman on most plays, which puts him in the avoid column when you add in a weak QB and his injury risk.
Danny Amendola (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,300): Over his last eight games, Amendola has five games with only four targets leading to six short games (3/17, 2/14, 4/36, 1,15, 2/34, and 2/23). His only two games of value came in Week 1 (6/100) and Week 11 (8/66/1), Danny had two catches for 34 yards on four targets in his start in Buffalo. Game score doesn’t project for a high volume of targets while he does have an edge over CB Leonard Johnson. On the positive side, Amendola should be the WR2 again this week for New England with Chris Hogan expected to miss another game.
Keelan Cole (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,300): Cole was the low-value impact player to own in Week 15. He caught seven of his nine targets for 186 yards and a TD. Keelan now has a TD in three straight games while catching 13 of his 15 targets over this span. Before his success, he didn’t have a game with more than three catches. With Marqise Lee out this week, Cole will be a starting WR for the Jaguars. The 49ers CB Dontae Johnson has risk in coverage. One of Jacksonville WRs will come this week. He’s priced reasonably low for a team that is on the improve in the passing game. In my thought, but San Fran will pay more attention to him this week.
Ted Ginn (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,500): Ginn sat out last week’s game with a rib injury. He turned in a limited practice on Wednesday, which leaves a Fantasy owner guessing if he plays on Sunday. He struggled in his last two games (2/27 and 2/10) with only five combined targets. Ginn had over 65 yards receiving in five of his last eight games, which led to mid-teen scores in five-game (4/66/1, 7/141, 4/59/1, 6/87, and 7/71). On the year, Ted averaged only 4.5 targets per game. Only worth a swing in a Saints’ stack.
Tyrell Williams (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,400): After hitting a long TD in Week 14 (4/132/1), Williams only had three catches for 31 yards on seven targets against the Chiefs. From Week 5 to Week 13, Tyrell only had 12 combined catches for 210 yards and one TD on 24 targets. He continues to get WR2 snaps for the Chargers. The Jets have a weakness at each CB position, but Williams hasn’t played well enough to trust in the daily games. The injury to TE Hunter Henry may push some TE targets back to the second and third WRs in LA. Favorable matchup if you want to gamble that he hits on a long TD with an uptick in chances.
Sammy Watkins (DK – $4,400/FD – $6,200): Just like Cooper Kupp, Watkins wasn’t needed to beat the Seahawks. He finished with only two catches for 14 yards on five targets. Over his last nine games, Sammy only has 22 catches for 352 yards and five TDs on 43 targets. There’s no doubt that Watkins has an edge over CB LeShaun Sims, but he can’t post a winning score without more chances. His scoring ability gives him a chance, and the Rams will call his number at the goal line.
Paul Richardson (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,800): Richardson has fewer than 60 yards receiving in five of his last seven games with only one TD. He averaged 5.4 targets over this span with only one game with more than 15 Fantasy points (3/72/1). His best game (6/105/2) of the year came in Week 8 against the Texans. Paul has six TDs in 2017. The Cowboys two outside CBs are young, but they are improving. They will be challenged when Russell Wilson breaks the pocket. Possible second piece of a Wilson pie.
Corey Coleman (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,800): Over his last five games, Coleman had 15 catches for 222 yards and a TD on 33 targets. His targets have been short in the last three games (4, 6, and 4) with Josh Gordon back in the starting lineup. CB Prince Amukamara is trending upward with a league average resume over his recent career in the NFL. At the mercy of an inaccurate QB with a low price point and below par matchup.
Kenny Stills (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,600): Over his last two games, Stills only has three combined catches for 26 yards on ten targets. His best three games of the year have come at home (6/85/2, 7/180/1, and 5/98/1). With DeVante Parker battling an ankle issue, Kenny could see a nice bump in targets this week. The Chiefs should score in this game forcing the Dolphins to throw. His one negative is that CB Marcus Peters would be scheduled to cover him on most plays. Peters does stay on one side of the field for most of his snaps, so Miami should be able to get him matchup in better situations. One of the better backend WRs this week if Parker doesn’t play.
Jermaine Kearse (DK – $3,900/FD – $6,000): After two big games at home (7/105/1 and 9/157) with 21 combined targets, Kearse struggled in his last two games (1/4 and 3/28). His downward slide was due to matchups and the injury to Josh McCown. On the year, Jermaine averages 6.2 targets per game with five TDs. CB Trevor Williams continues to play well for the Chargers pointing to another short game by Kearse. Pass.
Kendall Wright (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,100): Wright has been very active in the Bears’ passing game over the last two weeks (10/107 and 7/81) while receiving 24 combined targets. His last and only TD came in Week 4. Over the first 12 games of the season, Kendall had ten games with four catches or fewer and 11 games with less than 50 yards receiving. Overall, he averages only 5.5 targets per game while being shut out twice. The Browns are 13th defending WRs (158/1928/13 on 239 targets) with three WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving (Antonio Brown – 11/182, T.Y. Hilton – 7/153/1, and Keenan Allen – 10/105/1). His recent play puts him in the mix at level, but a third good game may be asking a bit much plus the Bears should play from the lead this week.
Jaydon Mickens (DK – $3,700/FD – $5,200): Mickens gained playing time last week after Marqise Lee got injured. He caught four of his five targets for 61 yards and two TDs while being on the field for 30 of 72 plays. Short resume with a low pedigree in college. His game looks to have a spark while earning possibly the slot role in Week 16. More of a GGP swing for an owner with multiple entries than a single in a million-dollar dream.
Damiere Byrd (DK – $3,500/FD – $4,900): Byrd moved into the starting line for the Panthers in Week 14, which led to him being a viable backend option in the daily games last week. Carolina had him on the field for 51 of 75 plays against the Packers. Damiere caught three of his four targets for 25 yards and two TDs last week. The Bucs have risk on the road and weakness at two CB slots. If Devin Funchess plays, Byrd could see a further bump in targets. He’s the fourth option in the passing game behind Christian McCaffrey, Devin Funchess, and Greg Olsen. Tough to trust in back-to-back games even with a low salary.
Roger Lewis (DK – $3,400/FD – $5,200): Lewis has 11 catches for 120 yards on 21 targets over the last two games. Roger has starting snaps in ten straight games, but he only had 14 catches for 183 yards and a TD on 30 targets over his previous eight games. Lewis should see CB Patrick Peterson on a high number of plays this week suggesting an empty stat line. His targets will draw some attention by Fantasy owners at this level, but he has disaster downside.