Week 8 TE Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Rob Gronkowski (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,400): Gronk is on pace for 77 catches for 1,205 yards and 11 TDs on 125 targets if he played 16 games. His catch rate (61.7) is below his best season in New England (72.5 in 2011). Rob hasn't been his best at home (KC – 2/33, HOU – 8/89/1, CAR – 4/80, and ATL – 3/51). He averages 7.8 targets per game with two impact games (6/116/1 and 6/83/2). The Chargers are second in the league vs. TEs with no team scoring over 15 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. TEs have 25 catches for 313 yards and no TDs on 38 targets while holding Travis Kelce to one catch for one yard and Zach Ertz (5/81 on eight targets) to a steady game. Gronk has a huge salary this week and this matchup doesn't look to offer enough upside to match his high salary.
Zach Ertz (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,300): Ertz has four TDs in his last three games and five in his last five games. He's had short chances in his last two starts (ten combined), but he scored over 15 Fantasy points in each game (2/18/2 and 5/89/1). Zach averages 8.3 targets per game helping him to the top ranking after seven weeks at the TE position (16.77 Fantasy points per game in PPR leagues). The 49ers are 3rd in the league defending TEs (26/270/1 on 37 targets) with the Redskins having the most success (7/102 on nine targets). Monster TE with high upside in targets in some matchups. His salary is much higher than Week 1 ($3,500) requiring 25+ Fantasy points. Winnable matchup, but a runaway game may lead to shorter passes by Philly.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,300): Seferian-Jenkins has a TD in three straight games. Over his five starts, he has 26 catches for 173 yards and three TDs on 34 targets. This puts him on pace for 83 catches for 554 yards and ten TDs on 109 targets if he played a full season. Austin averages 7.8 targets per game. TEs have 27 catches for 341 yards and no TDs on 51 targets against the Falcons. They held Rob Gronkowski to three catches for 51 yards while Charles Clay had the best game (5/112). Nice part of the Jets' offense with scoring ability, but he'll draw more attention from Atlanta's defense. His scoring streak ends this week.
Hunter Henry (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,500): Henry has been steady over his last four games (2/16/1, 3/42/1, 5/90, and 4/73) while averaging 5.8 targets over this stretch. He's the 12th highest scoring TE after seven weeks despite posting empty games in Week 1 and Week 3. His gap in snaps continues to increase over Antonio Gates over the last three games (59 to 41, 54 to 37, and 47 to 18). Gates enters this week with a knee issue, which may give Hunter another bump. TEs scored over 17 Fantasy points against New England in five of seven games with three TEs having mid-tier games (Ryan Griffin – 5/61/1, Cameron Brate – 5/68/1, and Austin Seferian Jenkins – 8/46/1). Overall, TEs have 37 catches for 382 yards and five TDs on 52 targets against New England. The injury to Dont'a Hightower also improves Henry's chances to make plays. I like this matchup especially if Gates is limited, but he needs to see more targets to produce an impactful game.
Jordan Reed (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,100): After short results in his first four games (5/36, 6/48, 3/21, and 4/37) while averaging six targets per game, Reed finally perform up to his expected value in Week 7 (8/64/2 on ten targets). Even with a missed game, Jordan is the 9th highest scoring TE. Last season he had a big game vs. the Cowboys (10/95/2 on 12 targets on the road) with a steady outing at home (5/70 on seven targets). Dallas haven't allowed over 15 Fantasy points to any TE in 2017. TEs have 26/316/1 on 39 targets vs. the Cowboys. Based on talent and potential opportunity, Reed is value at this level. His chemistry with Kirk Cousins is strong while being a top scoring threat in the red zone in the passing game. Solid play this week.
Jimmy Graham (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,400): Graham scored the expected TD last week, but he failed to deliver an impact game due to a dropped TD and a dropped long easy pass that had a chance to be another score. He finished with three catches for 51 yards and a TD on six targets. Jimmy has a TD in two straight games with steady production over his last four games (7/72, 4/61, 6/37/1, and 3/51/1) while averaging 7.8 targets per game. TEs have 33 catches for 373 yards and two TDs on 49 targets with two disaster games (NE – 9/108/1 and KC – 13/145). Trending in the right direction with a matchup with potential upside and his salary is in a favorable area.
Cameron Brate (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,800): Brate continues to get overlooked by Fantasy owners and DraftKings based on his low salary. He's the 2nd highest scoring TE in 2017 (14.18 Fantasy points per game in PPR leagues). Cameron has double digit Fantasy points in five straight games (4/33/1, 4/80/1, 5/68/1, 5/68/1, 6/76/1, and 6/60) while seeing more targets over his last three games (9, 8, and 9). Last season he had one catch for 38 yards on three targets in his only game against the Panthers. TEs have 22 catches for 240 yards and four TDs on 33 targets vs. Carolina with two TEs scoring two TDs (Darren Fells – 2/24/2 and Zach Ertz – 2/18/2). Tough to dismiss him based on his scoring ability, but the Bucs are throwing the ball to O.J. Howard as well.
Jason Witten (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,400): Witten caught all four of his targets last week for 54 yards and a TD against the 49ers. Over three of his last four starts, Jason has low targets (4, 2, and 4) leading to two disaster games (1/3 and 1/9). His best two games (7/59/1 and 10/97/1) over the first two games of the season. Last season he had six catches for 84 yards on seven targets in two games against the Redskins. Washington allows the third most Fantasy points to TEs (37/519/3 on 46 targets) with five teams having some sort of success (PHI – 9/104, LAR – 4/104, OAK – 5/42/1, KC – 7/111/1, and PHI – 7/99/1). Favorable matchup plus this game should have a lot of scoring.
Austin Hooper (DK – $4,100/FD – $4,900): Hooper remains a tough TE to trust from week-to-week. He has one impact game (2/128/1) in which he only had two targets. Austin was trending forward in two games (5/50 on seven targets and 7/48 on nine targets) with Mohamed Sanu injured. Last week Matt Ryan only looked his way one time leading to six yards gained. On the year, Hooper averages under four targets per game. TEs have 32 catches for 370 yards and five TDs on 54 targets against the Jets with fading value in their last three games (CLE – 6/72/1, NE – 6/83/2, and MIA – 6/83/1) while struggling in Week 1 (BUF – 5/75/1) as well. Coin flip play with half of his flips landing off the table while having a favorable matchup.
Jared Cook (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,600): Cook had his best game (6/107 on seven targets) of the season in Week 7 in a shootout game. In his previous six games, Jared had fewer than 60 yards receiving with one TD. He averages 5.9 targets per game. The Bills were drilled by the Bucs' TEs last week (12/158/2 on 15 targets) with most of the season coming from their second TE (6/98/2). TEs have 37 catches for 406 yards and two TDs on 48 targets against Buffalo. The Bills didn't allow a TD over the first five games so Cook may have a tough time scoring in this game, which will be needed to be in play.
George Kittle (DK – $3,600/FD – $4,900): Kittle had no value vs. the Cowboys (1/16 on two targets) after receiving 17 targets over the last two games (7/83/1 and 4/46). George was on the field for only 31 of 66 plays in Week 7, which was a step back in playing time from Week 6 (66 of 72 plays). Most thought the connection with QB C.J. Beathard at Iowa would lead to an increased opportunity. The Eagles had a disaster game vs. TEs in Week 7 (13/163/2 on 15 targets) against the Redskins. Philly held TEs to short results in five of their six previous games (5/36, 5/45, 5/34/1, 2/16, and 4/36) while struggling in Week 2 (8/103/1) against Travis Kelce and the Chiefs. Tough to trust and I expect a short score.
Jack Doyle (DK – $3,500/FD – $4,900): Over the last three games, Doyle has 18 catches for 121 yards and a TD on 25 targets. He also played well in Week 2 (8/79 on eight targets). Jack gains only 8.6 yards per catch while working a safety value for Jacoby Brissett. The Bengals are 4th in the NFL vs. TEs (21/233/1 on 30 targets). Lance Kendrick has the best game (2/52/1) vs. Cinci. Solid opportunity (6.8 targets per game) for his salary as the second receiving option in Indy's offense. If the Colts score a passing TD, Jack would be my top choice to be on the receiving end.
Ed Dickson (DK – $3,400/FD – $5,000): Dickson is listed as questionable for this week's game with an ankle injury. Over his last four games, Ed has one game of value (5/175) with three short games (3/62, 4/36, and 3/18). Over this span, he averaged 5.5 targets per game. Tampa ranks 11th in the league against TEs (22/251/3 on 31 targets) while allowing a TD to three low level TEs (Rhett Ellison – 2/11/1, Troy Niklas – 2/20/1, and Logan Thomas – 1/22/1). Too much risk due to his injury and potential short looks.
Zach Miller (DK – $3,200/FD – $5,400): Miller has three catches or fewer in each of his last five games while failing to gain over 45 yards. He averages 4.7 targets per game with two TDs via Mitchell Trubisky. His lack of chances in the last two games was due to game score and the success of the run game. Chicago attempted only 23 passes in the last two contests with only 12 completions. TEs have 18 catches for 236 yards and three TDs on 29 targets vs. the Saints. The only team to have success at TE was New England (7/121/1 on 11 targets). The Bears will have to throw in this game so Miller may have a season high in targets due to weak WRs options.
Ryan Griffin (DK – $3,100/FD – $5,100): Griffin only has seven combined catches for 87 yards on 17 targets over his last three games after posting a playable game in Week 4 (5/61/1). There's a chance that C.J. Fiedorowicz play this week after returning to practice. Seattle allowed over 15 Fantasy points to TEs in three of their last four games. TEs have 31 catches for 363 yards and two TDs on 55 targets against the Seahawks. Deshaun Watson should look for the TE this week as a way to avoid throwing into tight coverage vs. Seattle's CBs. More risk than reward.
Tyler Kroft (DK – $3,000/FD – $5,700): Over the last three games, Kroft has 14 catches for 129 yards and three TDs on 16 targets. TEs have 32 catches for 394 yards and four TDs on 50 targets against the Colts. All of the TDs allowed to TEs by Indy have come over the last five games with only one team gaining over 70 yards from the TE position (SF – 8/89/1). Possible second piece to a Dalton stack.
O.J. Howard (DK – $2,900/FD – $5,200): As the second TE for Tampa, Howard has created matchup problems for two teams over the last month. He beat the Giants for a long TD (2/63/1) while being a big part of the Bucs' game plan last week (6/98/2) due to game flow. As good as he may look, his other four games have disaster downside (1/17, 1/12, 0/0, and 1/15) with Cameron Brate playing so well. Only a flier until get more consistent targets.
Coby Fleener (DK – $2,900/FD – $4,900): Fleener has four straight poor games (1/21, 2/21, 0/0, and 2/22) with only nine combined targets. His season started off well (5/54/1 and 3/33/1). Coby averages only 3.2 targets per game. The Bears are 13th in the league vs. TEs (34/356/2 on 50 targets). Tough to believe in his chances, but he's a better player than this while playing at home.