35 Expert Picks

I like this buy low spot on the Astros and Hunter Brown. I have Houston winning 54 percent of simulations which implies -118. The Astros are off to a slow start to the season but they're still 7th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. I have concerns with Peralta throwing his fastball over 50% of the time considering the .361xwOBA and double digit barrel rate.

This one is a little juicy. However, Jaden McDaniels has had at least one block in six straight games. This season against Denver, McDaniels has had at least one block in seven out of nine games. With the season on the line and playing at home, the Timberwolves should some out and set the tempo with their defense like they did in the first two games of the series.

This is just a huge number for Josh Hart who has been tremendous in this series, however so much has to go right for a 6'4'' guard to eclipse at least 18 combined rebounds and assists. I also believe we could see fewer possessions in this game compared to what we saw earlier in the series as well. As well know, fewer possessions = fewer opportunities for rebounds and assists. This number is ultimately closer to Harts ceiling.

I'm super-late to the Phillies party because I frankly think they are somewhat overrated but hard to argue with the results, and I've been missing out. Totally jinxed now. Still was on the fence here but Mets leadoff hitter Brandon Nimmo was scratched, so why not at this price. Former Met Taijuan Walker has gotten better in each of his three starts this year for the Phillies.

No real reason to wait on this one since both are off today. The Rangers cashed for us Wednesday in a much-needed victory to snap a five-game skid and avoid falling below .500, and I think that might be a bit of a springboard to a good run. AL ROY second-favorite Evan Carter hasn't played since last weekend due to back issues but likely returns Friday. Lefty Andrew Heaney hasn't walked a batter in four straight starts and has a 2.00 ERA in May. I'll consider a Corey Seager total bases prop as he is a .391 hitter with triple and homer in 23 at-bats off Halos starter Tyler Anderson career. Anderson has a 2.92 ERA but is starting to fade.

This line is available for a lot better prices if you shop around. I have to back the guys fighting for their lives tonight, and that means hitting the boards harder. KAT has followed up his poor rebounding games with double digit games throughout the series. History would tell us tonight he should get back on track. The SL model has him projected for 8 rebounds, and I expect four quarters of effort will get us there tonight.

Jose Quintana's numbers do not look good and his underlying metrics paint a very worrisome picture. On the surface, Quintana has failed to throw 5 Ks in a single start this season. However if we look under the proverbial hood, I would argue hes actually run a bit hit in the stirkeout department. Quintana possesses a dismal 6.9% SwStr% and his 84.1% contact rate are both career worst marks. He will face a Phillies lineup who hes struggled against historically.

The Nuggets have scored at least 112 points in three straight games after reaching 112 in one of their first seven this postseason. They have figured out the Timberwolves and win the series tonight in the Twin Cities. Great in-series adjustments by Nuggets coach Michael Malone.

With their season on the line, the host Timberwolves can't let Nikola Jokic destroy them again. He had 40 points and 13 assists in Denver's Game 5 win. Sending more help at Jokic should put more of a playmaking and scoring burden on Jamal Murray. He typically elevates his game on the road, anyway, having cleared this prop in nine of his last 10 road games. In this series, Murray posted 29 and 27 combined points plus assists in Minnesota.

The Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 visits to Wrigley Field, but I like them to get off to a good start against Justin Steele. The lefty injured his hamstring on Opening Day and this will be only his third start since returning. Last Saturday in Pittsburgh, Steele gave up three homers and six earned runs in just four innings. He sports a 5.43 FIP this season. Back the Pirates and impressive rookie Jared Jones (2.68 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) to be tied or ahead after five innings.

Don't hit the panic button yet Rangers fans as all is not lost even though Carolina has stormed back (pun intended) to win the last 2 games -- that's reflected in the market. The Canes closed -141 in Game 4 and are now out to -166; I'm surprised to see how inflated the price has become in this spot. We know the Rangers' underlying metrics never look good, but that's by design for a team not built on puck possession. This is all about price for me and in a game I make -131, I'm more than willing to back the modest edge on the dog in desperation mode with the better goaltender even if the Blueshirts need to be better at 5-on-5.

Mike Conley (strained calf) is questionable after sitting out Game 5. He was present at shootaround Thursday. The expectation is that with Minnesota facing elimination, he'll play. But he could focus primarily on facilitating -- he's averaging 7.8 assists in the series -- and his minutes could be reduced. Look for Conley to try to get Anthony Edwards back on track after Ant's 5-of-15 performance in Game 5.

Newsflash: Gobert can't come close to containing Jokic and I'd be shocked if they decided to truly sellout to doubling him now. So does that mean more KAT on him? That's fine I think The Joker can take him off the dribble and to the rim. They can't collapse on him with Gordon and Murray and Porter shooting so well. This is a close-out game for me, and Jokic has another 30 in him knowing the importance of getting some RnR before the WCF. I see him taking matters into his own hands quite a bit and going to the line quite a bit

Jones doesnt have quite the strikeout numbers the last few times out, but he has been great. Steele is coming back from a long absence and I haven't loved what I've seen. If Jones can stay away from Bellinger's barrel I see a nice opportunity to make some plus money here.

Must acknowledge how the Oilers seemed to circle the wagons around backup goalie Cal Pickard in Game 4 after Stuart Skinner's flameout earlier in this series. Still, even as Edmonton has leveled matters, must note the Canucks have won six of the last eight meetings, and managed to claw their way back even at 2 on Tuesday before Evan Bounchard's very late game winner for the Oilers. Vancouver's own backup goalie, Arturs Silovs, seems to be gaining more confidence as the playoffs have progressed, and still believe Rick Tocchet is squeezing more from his troops than Edmonton counterpart Kris Knoblauch. Play Canucks on Money Line