MLB DFS: Post-Season Warm-Up (Oct 1)

We have the gift of two 163 tie-breaker games today and while many will say they are like playoff games and certainly the teams themselves will treat it as such, the reality is that it’s not a wild card win or go home scenario.  This is like a double elimination playoff set where the losers of the two games today will play tomorrow in the actual NL Wild Card game.

 

Today’s Games

Milwaukee @ Chicago

Colorado @ Los Angeles

 

Playoff MLB DFS Building Blocks

Over the years I have had good success with MLB DFS.  For one, we get a lot of folks who throw in a lineup simply to enjoy watching the games and second the ‘optimizers’ that reign supreme during the second half of the season are all shutdown for the playoffs and usually don’t do as well in spots where game theory really matters.   Here’s the key building blocks that I use for what are typically 2-4 game slates.

  1. Find the pitcher who has the best chance to win, if possible.  In a 2 game slate like we have here it’s a limited selection of starting pitchers, but just because a stud SP might be going doesn’t mean he is a lock to win because teams are very quick to use their bullpens in certain matchups.  Once we get into the 5 and 7 game series you’ll have a good indication when a manager is going to use a certain reliever as they try to have the game 6-9 inning guys once they get ahead.  A team like the Brewers this year is going to try and lean on their bullpen heavily and I would suspect the Yankees do the same if those teams go deep.  So find a pitcher who we think has the best path to the win, because that alone is a huge bonus in the playoffs.
  2. Leverage BvP.  Yes.  I am telling you to look at the BvP in the playoffs vs the SP.  I don’t think BvP is something to heavily use in the regular season because only 2 AB vs that pitcher is a limited upside for a player.  It’s a good starting point to find someone who might have good prior history, but in the playoffs those 2 AB are a heavy percentage of the potential good plays we can find.  So if there’s a guy batting 6th who has good history against a good SP and they get on and potentially score a run those couple of points are HUGE in spots where we might see some lower scoring games (unless of course the ball is juiced this playoffs again).
  3. Don’t have to stack.  Do not think in terms of “stacking”.  You really wanna think in terms of each position individually.  Some days we may only have 2 guys at a position others we may have 5-6 depending on the lineups.  Look at each one individually and identify which hitter is gonna do the best based on the SP and bullpen.
  4. Watch out for the platoon players.  This is the Dodgers rule.  They have a DEEEEP bench and as the opposing team changes RH vs LH pitchers we’ll see them use that bench.  Use this as a tie-breaker and try to lean the players who are going to stay in the game for their defense

 

TODAY’S PICKS

PITCHER

Walker Buehler is the best pitcher going of the four (sorry German Marquez fans).  He comes in rested and pitching at home he should be the best in line to win today.   The Rockies would still host the NL Wild Card game if they lose here today.  Marquez should pitch deep enough to qualify for the win if he gets run support, but I think the Dodgers win this game at home today.

Do not touch Brewers Starting Pitchers …

 

BEST OFFENSE MATCHUP

I think the Brewers are in the best spot against Quintana.  They have always hit well in Chicago and most of Quintana’s success vs them has come in Milwaukee believe it or not.  The Brewers are on fire and that lineup is deep enough to get to Quintana today.  I am starting with them and then looking at the Dodgers who have warm temps and I think can light up the Rockies bullpen.

 

FAVORITE HITTERS

  1. Lorenzo Cain … Playoff tested and has seen Quintana a ton from their AL Central days.  23 for 79 with a home run and 3 walks against Quintana and leading off today for the Brewers.  He is a defensive stud and won’t come out of the game late.
  2. Ryan Braun … Braun gets his chance to carry the Brewers and his Brewer legacy with a deep run here.  I think lots will flock to the red hot Christian Yelich but Braun is the guy in Wrigleyville that I think delivers the clutch hit today.  He is batting third.
  3. Daniel Murphy … Death, taxes and Daniel Murphy in the playoffs at Wrigley Field.  Might only see Chacin once today if things go south for Chacin but leading off we gotta hope he gets the 2nd AB and if he does I think he jacks one out today.

 

As of now I have not seen the Dodgers lineup, but Joc Pederson and Chris Taylor are two guys I am curious about.  Good chance only Joc starts and if he does could be pulled when the Rockies go to their LH pitchers out of the bullpen.  That said, he should bat at the top of the order and would be someone to rock first.  For the Rockies side, again I don’t wanna mess with Buehler today but Charlie Blackmons SB upside would be worth rostering if you have the cap space and want to be different by playing a hitter against your SP.

 

 

 

About Steve Renner 598 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.