MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 5/28 – Early Slate

It’s Memorial Day, guys and that means we have a day loaded with baseball to go with our beers, hot dogs, and whatever other junk food we decide to devour. I’ll cover all of the early action here and highlight which games are featured on which site.

Nationals at Orioles – Both

Astros at Yankees – Both

Blue Jays at Red Sox – Both

Mets at Braves – Both

Angels at Tigers – Both

Cubs at Pirates – Both

Cardinals at Brewers – Both

Rays at A’s – DK Only

Rangers at Mariners – DK Only

Marlins at Padres – DK Only

White Sox at Indians – DK Only

Reds at Diamondbacks – DK Only

Weather and Park Factors

Mets at Braves – Upper seventies, overcast, and very humid.

Angels at Tigers – Temps pushing 90.

Cubs at Pirates – Warm here as well with temps pushing 90.

Reds at Diamondbacks – No chance in hell that the roof will be open.

Pitchers

Justin Verlander (HOU)

JV is on another level right now dominating everyone in his path. The last time he faces the Yankees, JV went eight innings and struck out 14 while allowing no runs. Since that outing on May 1st, JV has had four starts and totaled 27 innings pitched with 31 strikeouts and just three earned runs. The Yankees lineup doesn’t scare me off of him as he’s simply on another level right now.

Jacob deGrom (NYM)

Some pitchers just have a teams number and that’s the case with deGrom and his history against the Braves. Over 13 starts against Atlanta, deGrom has a 1.89 ERA with 90 strikeouts and just 66 hits allowed over the 81-inning-span. In three starts in Sun Trust Park, all obviously last year, deGrom has a 2.84 ERA with 22 strikeouts and 17 hits in 19 innings. The Mets’ ace, yes, ace, I’ve said it for a couple of years now, he’s their ace, has had back to back seven-inning outings after a brief stretch on the DL. Jake has an 11.88 K/9 and 33.3 percent K rate on the season over 58.1 innings.

Chris Archer (TB) DK Only

Archer has been incredibly inconsistent this season but there is no denying his ability and upside on the mound. Over his last two outings, Archer has gone 6.2 and 6 innings pitched respectively with a total of 11 strikeouts. The Athletics are missing Khris Davis who’s on the DL and as a team has the second-worst wOBA and 10th-worst ISO over the last week. In their last 6 games, the A’s have scored just 12 runs against the Diamondbacks and Mariners. Archer’s ability is there, he’s generating a solid swinging strike rate of 13 percent and a good O-swing rate of 30.9 percent. What’s hurt Archer this season is walks which come eight percent of the time. On top of that, he’s dealing with some bad luck with a .311 BABIP. In a big park against a team that is struggling right now, I like my chances with Archer.

Caleb Smith (MIA)

Smith will likely be your chalk SP2 on DK this afternoon as he faces the Padres. People are starting to just pick on the Padres, and for good reason, as they how zero consistency at the plate from anyone. They rank near the bottom of the NL in virtually every offensive category. Smith has put together a nice little stretch with four very good starts over his last five outings.

David Price (BOS)

Price looks to have found something recently, maybe it’s all of the Fortnite he’s been playing. Who knows? Either way, his last three starts have been good coming against these Blue Jays, Orioles, and Rays. Over his last 20.1 innings pitched, Price has allowed just five earned runs, walked just six, but struck out 23.

Pitcher to Fade

Tyler Skaggs (LAA)

The matchup for Skaggs seems like a decent one against the Tigers but there are a few things to consider here. First of all it’s hot as hell in Detroit. The Tigers aren’t as bad as you think offensively, in fact, they have the ninth-best team wOBA against lefties in baseball. Castellanos, Goodrum, McCann, and others could give Skaggs a hard time. Lastly, he never goes deep into his starts. If I’m paying 8.8K on FD and 9.2K on DK I want that guy to at least have the upside to go deep into a start. Skaggs has completed seven innings in ONE of his 10 starts this season.

Favorite Stacks

Nationals

It doesn’t get much more clear-cut than this. The Nats are starting to hit with 18 runs in their last three games and now get the horrific Oriole’s pitching staff for a series? What the hell is going on over there, Buck? Alex Cobb has been nothing short of horrendous for Baltimore and the bullpen is a hot mess. As a team, the Orioles have allowed 1.39 HR/9 (fourth-most), the highest opponent’s batting average at .279, and the bullpen has been a nightmare disaster. Trea, Bryce, Rendon, and Adams is an attractive 1-4 stack for the Nats. One pivot you could make there is Soto in for Adams as there are some really good options at first base.

Indians (DK Only)

I’m not sure what Dylan Covey was up to in his last start where he shut down the Orioles and looked like Michael Kopech of the future out there but I’m not buying into it. At all. I’ve seen how bad this guy is. I saw it and attacked it all last season. I mean, Covey had a 5.27 K/9 rate and a 4.37 BB/9 rate. He almost walked more batters than he struck out. That’s #Talent. He allowed a 35 percent fly ball rate, which isn’t the worst of all time, except for the fact that he had a 24.7 HR/FB rate. Jesus. It gets better. He surrendered a .438 wOBA to righties and a .373 wOBA to lefties. Now, could he have gotten better? Sure. But I don’t believe it. There’s no way a guy that was/is this fucking terrible is going to come into Cleveland and shut down the Tribe. Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Brantley, EE, and Yonder are the top five bats for me.

Red Sox

I’m not exactly sure what happened to Aaron Sanchez but he looks like a shell of his former self and faces one of, if not the best offense in baseball. Mookie is doubtful to play which really sucks but there are a number of ways to go here. JD had Sunday off and you guys should know by now that I love playing guys coming off of a day off. Benintendi has been swinging the bat well and the results are starting to come for him. Mitchy Two Bags has no one to worry about now with Hanley kindly asked to leave because he’s such a waste of oxygen. With that, Moreland has hits in each of his last four games including two home runs, two triples, and a double. Xander and Pedroia are definitely in play, but I personally prefer JD, Benintendi, and Moreland if I’m starting this stack.

Diamondbacks (DK Only)

The Dbacks have not been hitting at all. That will change in this series against the Reds. David Peralta, Goldy who’s starting to hit finally, and Jake Lamb are going to anchor a lineup that beats the piss out of Donger Bailey and the Reds bullpen. Daniel Descalso and Alex Avila are other pieces to add in here at a good value. In his last 13.2 innings pitched Bailey has allowed 13 earned runs and 30 hits.

Also Consider

Astros – German came back down to earth in his last start and the Astros bats came alive yesterday against Cleveland. Correa loves hitting in Yankee Stadium, George Springer has multiple hits in three of his last four games, and Jose Altuve is starting to round into form after a good series in Cleveland.

 

Hitters by Position

Catcher

James McCann (DET) – Great splits against lefties, great hitting conditions in Detroit.

Alex Avila (ARI) – 98 mph average exit velocity over his last five games.

Wilson Ramos (TB) – Has hits in each of his last seven games with a double and two home runs over that span.

First Base

Mitch Moreland (BOS) – Multiple hits in each of his last two games and two home runs, a double, and a triple over his last three.

Anthony Rizzo (CHC) – Own’s PNC Park with a .328 average, 18 doubles, and 12 home runs over 51 games.

Edwin Encarnacion (CLE) – SD said it and I agreed with him on the Podcast – the hot stretch is coming and he’s gotten it off to a good start with five hits in his last eight at-bats, including a double and home run.

Second Base

Ian Kinsler (LAA) – Begrudgingly writing him up. He makes a ton of sense if you need some value to pay up in other spots. Has hit lefties very well over his career, good hitting conditions, and a bit of a revenge narrative here.

Scooter Gennett (CIN) – Multiple hits in three of his last five games including five hits on Sunday. Also, he has three home runs over his last five games.

Third Base

Matt Carpenter (STL) – Good numbers at Miller Park with a .283 average, 16 doubles, and seven home runs in 53 games. Carpenter is heating up with a .410 average, seven doubles, and two home runs over his last 10 games.

Jake Lamb (ARI) – At home against a bad righty. This is a spot for Jake to go into #ThePool.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa (HOU) – Has destroyed Yankee Stadium with a .389 average and four home runs in nine games there.

Trea Turner (WAS) – Hits in seven straight games. If you aren’t stacking the Nats, you have to consider Trea as a one-off against Cobb and the bad Orioles bullpen.

Outfield

Michael Brantley (CLE) – The second spot in the lineup has worked out well for him as he’s hit in 15 straight games.

J.D. Martinez (BOS) – 52 percent hard-hit rate over his last 13 games and he’s facing a starting pitcher that gives up a ton of hard contact and a bullpen anchored by John Axford and Tyler Clippard. Who both suck, along with everyone else back there.

Domingo Santana (MIL) – Quietly hitting the ball well with an average exit velocity of 99 and a hard-hit rate of 62 percent over his last 11 games.

Austin Meadows (PIT) – 13/30 (.433) with two doubles and three home runs to start his major league career.

David Peralta (ARI) – He’s been hinting at a big game here with hits in six straight. Big game coming for the freight train at a very nice value.

Adam Duvall (CIN) – 53 percent fly ball rate and a 45 percent hard-hit rate over his last 11 games. Could translate into a value dong.

GOOD LUCK

About Rob Geriak 74 Articles
Rob Geriak (MLB, NHL) has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years shifting his focus over to DFS a few years back. Geriak started out posting daily thoughts and analysis in the Scout Fantasy message boards and has contributed across the industry in many different areas providing top-notch content including on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio. Geriak presents his content in a simplified, straight to the point form with a mix of advanced and common data assisting all fantasy sports players from the casual, novice player to the avid, experienced player. You can follow Rob on Twitter @TheRobGeriak