36 Expert Picks
A bit of a surprise here to see Frankie Montas making an opening-day start for the Reds, as he was a late signee after missing almost the entirety of last season with the Yankees due to shoulder problems. Still, Cincy is a chic pick to steal the NL Central after emerging as a playoff contender a year ago. Meanwhile, at the outset, we look against the Nats, which we suspect will have another slow start, while waiting for the call-ups of Trey Lipscomb, Cade Cavalli, James Wood, Robert Hassell and Dylan Crews to provide upgrades downstream. Play Reds on Run Line
Our suspicion with the Halos is that, at least at the outset, they will not at all miss the glare of Shohei Ohtani. Without the resultant pressure, can the Angels perhaps even flourish? We'll see, but we like new skipper Ron Washington and what seems a player-friendly ship, not to mention having had the Halos run wild in the Cactus League like the haven't since Dick Williams and his jackrabbit Angels of 1975. At the outset, Patrick Sandoval is also capable of a quality start, while Corbin Burnes mikes his Birds debut amid an ominous backdrop in Baltimore with local concerns elsewhere in the harbor the past few days. Play Angels on Money Line
If Bama is going to advance much further, it has to win games that pace like Sunday's 72-61 win over Grand Canyon. But we need more evidence that the Tide's defense is actually up to it after also being hit for 96 by Charleston in the preceding round, and has mostly leaked profusely this season. Remember, the Tar Heels have many rebounders who crash the offensive glass, a problem for a team with occasional issues on the defensive boards like Bama. UNC was also flying in the sub-regionals at Charlotte, powering for 88 ppg in wins and covers vs.. Wagner and Michigan State, suggesting more problems for the Tide and its defense. Play UNC (NCAA at Los Angeles)
Can SDSU fare any better than it did last April 3? Remember, UConn won the national title game comfortably, 76-59, and not sure the scenario will be much different in the Sweet 16. These Aztecs rely even more upon 6-9 PF Jordan LeDee, who has worn out opposing frontlines in recent games in which he’s tallying 28 ppg across the past five. But UConn can keep LeDee contained with its size and athleticism, especially with 7-2 skyscraper Donovan Clingan to protect the rim. From the title game, Dan Hurley also returns G Tristen Newton, who scored a game-high 19 in that 17-point cruise, while the Huskies have won nine in a row since that mid-February loss at Creighton. Play UConn (NCAA at Boston)
NC State is adept at avoiding turnovers (9.5 per game, 14th nationally), which fuels Marquette's offense. I also like the emergence of Wolfpack forward Mohamed Diarra: He's grabbed at least 12 rebounds in six straight games and should hurt the Golden Eagles on the glass. NC State is not a typical double-digit seed; the Pack lost a slew of tight games to bigtime competition before putting it all together at the start of the ACC Tournament. Look for another close one here.
The Huskies shot 3 of 22 from deep against Northwestern, and the game still was a blowout start to finish. This one will be tougher against a very physical and staunch defensive team in San Diego State. But the elevated play of Donovan Clingan should somewhat neutralize Jaedon LeDee. And ultimately, UConn's overall excellence will prevail. The Huskies have won eight straight NCAA Tournament games by 13 or more points. Playing in front of a partisan crowd in Boston, look for UConn to extend that streak.
The Crimson Tide will need all their weapons against potent North Carolina, and Alabama senior guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. -- the team's top 3-point shooter at 44.3 percent -- is iffy at best. He took an elbow to the head in Alabama's win over Grand Canyon. UNC's offense is excellent, but its defense is even better (No. 6 per KenPom). The Tide have struggled to slow down dominant big men, setting up Armando Bacot (14.4 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg) for a monster performance. Look for the ACC to continue its incredible ATS run (29-9-1 ATS the last two NCAA Tournaments).
It's not easy backing a coach like Rick Barnes who is 4-16 ATS in the NCAA Tournament the past 15 years. But this matchup works in favor of Tennessee. Vols leading scorer Dalton Knecht shot 5 of 18 last game, and his team still got by Texas. Look for Knecht, and the Volunteers as a whole, to shoot much better than their 3-of-25 performance from deep. Creighton's elite offense will find less room to operate against Tennessee's No. 3-ranked defense (per KenPom).
Patrick Sandoval is now the ace of Angels and started out with spring where he went 0-3 in four starts. And in those four starts, he had 16 hits, 12 runs allowed, two home runs, six walks, and struck out 10. Not sure if he's trying out some new things and maybe new pitches and things would be okay on a normal day of pitching, but will they? I think Sandoval's in trouble and he's the reason I'm betting against them. No Shohei Ohtani. Opening day. Orioles to win.
So yeah we were on the wrong side of BOS blowing a 30-point lead at ATL Mon (we jumped it -11) but we knew Celtics would come out humming with ATL playing them tough this year (play BOS 1st spread and 1st half as soon as it populates; I will). BOS was due for a letdown and it came in second half. But their perimeter D lapsed and shooting went dry and I anticipate they build another 25+ lead here with 2 days off in ATL to stew on this rematch. Celtics dominate 1st half on road and ATL is a slow starter (especially at home). BOS coach's suspect rotation killed us Mon; must lean on starters after such a bad loss
If the officials don’t swallow their whistles Duke should be able to exploit a Houston D that is overrated (still good but overrated). Duke has guys who can score and are playing their best ball. Take the points
Why Gonzaga? 1. Mark Few 2. The Boilermakers have all the pressure and just played their A+ game v Utah State 3. Purdue doesn’t blow out good teams. When the tourney started, every time Purdue has played an NCAA tourney team in 2024, they have either lost, gone to OT or won by single digits. Take the points.
Still can't believe our fade of Vegas on Tuesday in Nashville paid off as the Knights blew a 4-1 third-period lead and lost in OT. Now, I haven't played hockey since on a pond in Michigan decades ago, but I have to think that leaves a bit of a hangover. No. 1 goaltender Adin Hill and top-six defenseman Alex Pietrangelo remain out. Vegas is 2-4 in its past six as a dog. Perhaps some urgency for Winnipeg on a four-game skid, although three were away and then Tuesday's loss in OT at home to excellent Edmonton. The Jets haven't lost B2B home games in months.
A battle of top offense and defense in the country. With a line this short, this could come down to free throws. Illinois is the better free throw shooting team, shooting 74.2% as compared to the Cyclones 69.9% on the season. Since the Big-10 tournament, Terrence Shannon Jr. has been unstoppable. Iowa State plays great team basketball but does not have a player like Shannon Jr. that can take over a game on both sides of the court. The Fighting Illini has guard play and size downlow to compete with Iowa State and possibly reach the Elite 8.
The strongest play in the Duke-Houston matchup figures to be the Under on the total. Duke has improved immensely on the defensive end of the floor, where opponents are averaging just 55 points in the team's last five victories. From an ATS standpoint, I trust Kelvin Sampson’s in-game adjustments to overtake pivotal stretches of the game. Additionally, Jamal Shead has been a part of Houston’s Final Four, Elite 8 and Sweet 16 teams over the prior three years. Friday’s matchup will mark his 15th tournament game as a member of the Cougars.