46 Expert Picks
This recently flipped at FanDuel to 6.5, so I sorta feel obligated. Philly's Samuel Ersson held the Habs to two goals in a 3-2 shootout win earlier this season. Counterpart Cayden Primeau tends to be either really good or really bad, so why just a half unit. He has been very good in two of his past three. The Under is 7-2 in the Canadiens' past nine. The SL Model projects this as the lowest-scoring game of the night.
These two just met in Seattle two days ago, a 4-0 Kraken win. Candidly, I see no reason to think anything is about to change. The Ducks have no defense right now, and Seattle have won five straight against Anaheim, finding plenty of offense each time. Give me a repeat performance here.
I'll bite at this 5.5, which I am guessing is priced as is because we have a pair of playoff teams jockeying for position. Be that as it may, all the numbers suggest we should see goals here. Vegas road games over the past month and a half are averaging 7.2 goals per game, and seven of the last eight Winnipeg home games have finished with 6+ goals. Connor Hellebuyck is struggling in net lately, allowing 3+ goals in nine of his past 12, Vegas should find offense. Six of the last eight meetings between these two has hit this 5.5 over.
Both teams are starting their backups yet that might be ideal for Under 6.5 as Florida's Anthony Stolarz has a 1.97 GAA that would lead the NHL if he qualified, while New York's Semyon Varlamov has a 2.86 GAA that's better than No. 1 Ilya Samsonov (3.08). The Under is 4-2 in the past six in the series.
The Reds aren't whole yet with TJ Friedl and Matt McLain on the injured list, but they still should rake at home. Elly De La Cruz is a Human Highlight Reel. As the city with the first professional baseball franchise (started in 1869), Cincinnati does Opening Day like no other so it should be a legit home-field advantage today. Nats starter Josiah Gray had an ERA near 6.00 this spring and allowed five runs over five innings in his lone start vs. the Reds in 2023.
The Tigers had a winning record on the road last season at 41-40. They will try to start off this season with a road victory when they send their ace Tarik Skubal to the mound. He had a dominant 2023 campaign in which he finished with a 2.80 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. In his two starts against the White Sox, he allowed a total of two runs over 12 innings. The White Sox will roll with Garrett Crochet, who had a 1.97 WHIP over 13 relief appearances last season. He also has an underwhelming bullpen behind him, putting the Tigers in a favorable spot to earn a victory.
After winning 101 games last season, the Orioles should again be among the best teams in baseball. They return largely the same lineup and will send their new ace Corbin Burnes to the mound against the Angels. The Angels were only 35-46 on the road last season and have a compromised lineup with Shohei Ohtani now on the Dodgers. I’ll pay the juice and take the Orioles to get a win in their first game.
We are going to stick with some early action on BOS because it continues to reward us. They plastered ATL by 22 in 1st qtr MON< BOS is well rested, ATL played Wed night and all the metrics points to laying this with BOS 1st QTR in a revenge spot, with expected full health - with a line that is now bloated 5 points from where we grabbed it - vs a team that often comes out flat. Since AGS BOS 14-3 dominating 1st QTR at +7.1 (next "closest" is DEN 5.2). ATL is 25th in 1st QTR since ASG at -2.1. BOS eager to flex muscles after blowing 30 point lead at AT. First half -10.5 not a bad look either
Clemson is playing great basketball at the perfect time and now they face an Arizona team that has been very inconsistent this season. Yes, Arizona wins this matchup in most of the offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, but Clemson provides some matchup problems for Arizona as well. I expect Hall, Hunter and Girard to have big games and I expect Clemson to frustrate Arizona into bad shots by slowing the game down. One thing Clemson has been able to do all season is play highly ranked teams tough and I don't expect that to change against Arizona.
The Yankees feel like a bit of a mess with the Gerrit Cole injury, Aaron Judge apparently not 100 percent, either, and having not hit much this spring and likely leadoff hitter DJ LeMahieu on the injured list. Nestor Cortes had an 8.10 ERA this spring. Houston is loaded yet again and now might have the best back end of the bullpen in the majors with the addition of Josh Hader. The Astros had won a record 10 straight OD games before a 2023 loss.
A bit of a surprise here to see Frankie Montas making an opening-day start for the Reds, as he was a late signee after missing almost the entirety of last season with the Yankees due to shoulder problems. Still, Cincy is a chic pick to steal the NL Central after emerging as a playoff contender a year ago. Meanwhile, at the outset, we look against the Nats, which we suspect will have another slow start, while waiting for the call-ups of Trey Lipscomb, Cade Cavalli, James Wood, Robert Hassell and Dylan Crews to provide upgrades downstream. Play Reds on Run Line
Our suspicion with the Halos is that, at least at the outset, they will not at all miss the glare of Shohei Ohtani. Without the resultant pressure, can the Angels perhaps even flourish? We'll see, but we like new skipper Ron Washington and what seems a player-friendly ship, not to mention having had the Halos run wild in the Cactus League like the haven't since Dick Williams and his jackrabbit Angels of 1975. At the outset, Patrick Sandoval is also capable of a quality start, while Corbin Burnes mikes his Birds debut amid an ominous backdrop in Baltimore with local concerns elsewhere in the harbor the past few days. Play Angels on Money Line
If Bama is going to advance much further, it has to win games that pace like Sunday's 72-61 win over Grand Canyon. But we need more evidence that the Tide's defense is actually up to it after also being hit for 96 by Charleston in the preceding round, and has mostly leaked profusely this season. Remember, the Tar Heels have many rebounders who crash the offensive glass, a problem for a team with occasional issues on the defensive boards like Bama. UNC was also flying in the sub-regionals at Charlotte, powering for 88 ppg in wins and covers vs.. Wagner and Michigan State, suggesting more problems for the Tide and its defense. Play UNC (NCAA at Los Angeles)
Can SDSU fare any better than it did last April 3? Remember, UConn won the national title game comfortably, 76-59, and not sure the scenario will be much different in the Sweet 16. These Aztecs rely even more upon 6-9 PF Jaedon LeDee, who has worn out opposing frontlines in recent games in which he’s tallying 28 ppg across the past five. But UConn can keep LeDee contained with its size and athleticism, especially with 7-2 skyscraper Donovan Clingan to protect the rim. From the title game, Dan Hurley also returns G Tristen Newton, who scored a game-high 19 in that 17-point cruise, while the Huskies have won nine in a row since that mid-February loss at Creighton. Play UConn (NCAA at Boston)
NC State is adept at avoiding turnovers (9.5 per game, 14th nationally), which fuels Marquette's offense. I also like the emergence of Wolfpack forward Mohamed Diarra: He's grabbed at least 12 rebounds in six straight games and should hurt the Golden Eagles on the glass. NC State is not a typical double-digit seed; the Pack lost a slew of tight games to bigtime competition before putting it all together at the start of the ACC Tournament. Look for another close one here.