This Thursday we actually have a decent slate of 6 games, unlike the 3-4 the NBA has been scheduling.
**Games with highest totals Kings/Hawks 231 and running at the fastest pace, Clippers/Sixers 228.5 & Thunder/Hornets 227.5. The Pelican/Blazer line is still not out.
*I would advise to only play one GPP punt per lineup as they are volatile.
*Jalen Brown is a game-time-decision and if he sits it could open up some plays. Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier could be in line for additional minutes.
**Payton has already been ruled out and Davis is listed as doubtful, so if both sit Holiday, Mirotic and Randle pick up the biggest increase in usage.
*Russell Westbrook is in play on DK at 10.7k. Taking 20 shots a game and going against Kemba. These guys should go back and forth tonight.
Kemba is playing at an elite level this year averaging 47 FPs, 1.4 FPPM, 21 shot attempts and 34 minutes a game. He is playing at home, where he tends to play better and going against Westbrook who has no interest in playing defense. Price is up a bit, but Kemba has shown 50-60 FP upside this year in the right matchup.
Dame has the best matchup in the board at PG facing the Pelicans, who rank dead last allowing 57 FPs to opposing PGs.
Two things that stick out for Fox is the elite matchup as the Hawks rank 27th vs opposing PGs allowing just shy of 50 FPPG and the price decrease. Fox has been playing 30 minutes a game and averaging just shy of 40 FPs. Matchup, fast pace and minutes should get Fox to value plus tonight.
Morris played 25 minutes last night and only put up 9 FPs. This is a bounce back game for him as the Nuggets play the Cavs who rank 20th vs opposing PGs and he should have no problem taking getting it done vs the Cavs second unit. GPP Play Much better play on DK at only 3.9K.
Has played 18 & 20 minutes in the last two games. If he gets 20 minutes vs this Hawks team we could return 6-7x at only 3.4K on DK. Hawks are ranked last vs opposing PGs.
(Value Punt Play) Tim Frazier- played 2o + minutes in the last two games and if he gets the start again tonight he is worth a punt. This is a good matchup for the Pelican PGs & SGs. It is Frazier’s birthday today if you believe in narratives. My favorite punt play tonight as he has 30 FP upside.
Holiday has played well as of late putting up 40 or more FPs in 3 of his last 4 games and could see an increase in usage tonight if Davis sits out. He would either get a matchup against Lillard or McCollum and should be able to exploit either of them. Listed at 8.3K on FD and 7.3k on DK(much better play here), but in play on both sites.
McCollom is taking 17 shots a game and finally starting to hit around 50% of them. Excellent matchup tonight vs the Pelicans as they rank 26th vs opposing SGs. Usage at 26.
**Buddy Hield is in play on DK 6.4K , big price bump on FD to 8k. I think he hits value, but could return closer to 7x on DK.
Clarkson played 27 minutes last game under the new coach, which was a season high. This could be a good sign. He has a 27% usage rate and runs with the second unit. I have him projected at 25 FPs, which is 5.6x and could see him getting closer to 6-7x tonight.
Bradley is priced at 3.6K on FD and 3.9k on DK and playing about 25 minutes a game. His shot attempts are upnover the last 3 games taking 10 or more shots in all 3. He has averaged 20 FPs over that 3 game timeframe and the Clippers will need his presence on the floor to slow down Redick. GPP Play that could return 6-7x upside tonight.
(Value Punt) Nik Stauskus- has been playing close to 20 minutes a game and seemed to have played himself into solid minutes. Excellent pace up game, where he excels in and the matchup is good as well. Stauskus likes to shoot and he should have no problem getting shots off tonight.
Giannis has played well vs the Celtics last year posting 37/13/3, 28/10/7, 40/9/4 & 29/11/6 (points, rebounds, assists) with some steals and blocks in each. The Celtics do not have anyone athletic and big enough to stop him, so I am expecting another big game from him tonight. He should hit double digit rebounds as the that is the one are the Celtics struggle with. Giannis is playing at an elite level this year.
Picks up a good matchup vs the Clippers and the Sixers will need him to step up to compete tonight.
Bjelica has played 30 plus minutes over the past 4 games and delivered 43, 53, 39, & 39 DK FPs. He is getting it done with scoring, rebounding and with defensive statistics. This is a great spot for him as this game will run at a fast pace and the Hawks rank 28th vs opposing SFs. He will be part of my core tonight.
Playing well this year with a usage rate of 25% and gets a nice matchup as the Sixers
MKG has played fairly well this year putting up 20 or more FPS in 5 of this 8 games this year. Nice matchup against the Thunder as they rank 24th vs the SF position. I have MKG projected at 27 FPS, which is 7x.
Playing well this year(20 or more FPS in all but one game) and gets a good matchup tonight in this fast paced game.
*Sam Dekker should get the start again tonight, but I do not expect the same performance from him. He has talent and could put up 25 or so FPS, which is right around value.
If Davis sits Mirotic, Randle and Jrue are good plays as they pick up the most usage.
Al-Farouq Aminu- in his last 2 games vs the Pelicans he posted a double/double in both. 19/11 & 10/10 with 3 steals in each of those games. His reduced price along with this excellent matchup make him a nice GPP Play tonight.
Marcus Morris- high usage of the bench and will continue to play him at around 5k. 30 or more FPs in 3 straight games and gets a nice matchup vs the Bucks tonight.
(Value GPP Punt) Omari Spellman- is only 3.3k on DK and has played over 20 minutes in the past 2 games. The pace and the fact that the Kings are allowing 58.8 FPs to opposing PFs (27th) is what i am looking at. He has flashed 21 FPs upside twice so far this year.
The Clippers have no one to stop Embiid tonight and he should dominate. He has put up 50 or more FPs in all but 2 games this year and has shown upside of 70 FPs.
Nurkic just droped 40 DK FPs on the Rockets in only 24 minutes and he saw a price decrease on both sites. The Blazers are going to need him to play more minutes tonight to battle Anthony Davis. The Blazers get a big bump in pace tonight vs the Pelicans, which increases Nurkic’s upside with the increase in shot attempts and rebounding opportunities. GPP PLAY
Randle could get the start at C tonight if Davis sits out. Last time he started he put up 43 FPs.
Mason Plumlee- I recommended him last night and he went for a bit over 7x and tonight he gets another excellent matchup as the Cavs rank 24th vs opposing Cs. This is a back-to-back game plus the chance of a blowout, so Plumlee could see close to 20+ minutes again tonight and in this matchup could return 6-8x again.
(Value Punt) Boban Marjanovic-could see some additional minutes tonight to battle Embiid. He has shown 31 FP upside in only 12 minutes.