40 Expert Picks
We generally do not get odds feeds of alternate totals, etc. on any sport, but we are getting one from Bet365 on this total -- hence the crazy juice (on 5.5 goals, the Under is -115). I'll be surprised if this goes Over 6.5 barring a 3-3 regulation tie, so I'm going to take the rare opportunity.
It's set and forget time in this Edmonton-Los Angeles series, I'm betting the over in every game unless it goes to a Game 7. You can find a flat 6 at a reasonable price, so feel free to do that if you'd like to cover a potential push, but after a 7-4 and 5-4 game, I don't see this pace slowing down. This marks the 16th playoff matchup over the past three years for these teams, and nine of the 15 so far have seen 7+ goals, including five straight going for nine or more. Give me the over, and load up some Adrian Kempe props while you're at it, the man seems to be contractually obligated to shoot the puck against Edmonton.
Won't be playing look-ahead totals very often but the winds are expected to be blowing in at Comerica Park for the Friday matinee and KC starter Seth Lugo has a 2.03 ERA. The Tigers are hitting just .214 at home. Their pitcher, Reese Olson, has made just one home start this year and it was quality. I think this will close at 8 across the board so wanted the hook now.
We saw a glimpse of what this series could become with Thatcher Demko out of the net, and it's not pretty for Vancouver. On just 15 shots, Casey DeSmith allowed three goals for a putrid save percentage of .800. Nashville won 4-1 thanks to an empty netter, and now returning home, they seem set to take control of this series. I was a believer in the value on the Preds before this series began, and I'm surprised we're getting such a reasonable price on their moneyline at home on Friday. Count me in.
I make the Royals 54 percent winners in this road matchup which implies a moneyline price of -117. 24-year old Reese Olson is going to be a fine pitcher at some point, but I don't like the hard contact against this lineup.
If I had any Pirates gear, I would be in mid-burn after their bullpen blew a sure runline cover this afternoon. Can't end the day like that. Oakland's Alex Wood has been one of the worst pitchers in the American League at 0-2 with a 7.89 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. Aaron Judge has not faced him, but it sure feels like a guy Judge would take deep (if Judge is healthy that is). New York's Nestor Cortes has not allowed an earned run in two home starts spanning 15 innings.
The Magic can't possibly score less/shoot worse at home than they did the first two games in Cleveland, and they were a tremendous 29-12 in Orlando during the regular season. Might be a bit easy for the Cavs to be a bit asleep at the wheel with two such easy wins so far -- they haven't even TRAILED. Cleveland did lose four of its final five regular-season away games.
Kawhi Leonard figures to be a bit more in rhythm with a game under his belt as well as a few practices, while the Mavs will be without Tim Hardaway Jr. and are listing starting big Daniel Gafford as questionable Friday. Since about March 20, the Clippers have been much better on the road than at home. Overall this season, LA was first in the NBA on the road in three-point shooting (39.8%) and in free-throw shooting (82.8%).
This looks like a great spot to fade Mackenzie Gore against a Dodgers team that has a stingy K Rate of 20.8% versus opposing southpaws. LA also possesses a healthy .722 OPS against lefties, good for the 10th highest mark in MLB. Considering Gore's outs line is just 16.5 juiced heavily to the under, I believe 7 Ks is a tall order.
Think the Canucks are toast in this series with No. 1 goaltender Thatcher Demko ruled out for Friday after also missing Game 2 with an injury -- and it sounds like he will not return this series after winning the opener. Casey DeSmith is a solid No. 2 but a massive downgrade as we saw in Game 2 when he allowed a goal on Nashville's first shot as the Preds won 4-1 in Vancouver. DeSmith also struggled some at the end of the regular season. Really tough break for the Pacific Division champs.
The Sunshine State series is being conducted in close quarters, with plenty of tight checking and not much room for the respective snipers to operate. Defense has been the name of the game as each of the first two games landed 3-2 in Florida's favor, and both goalies (Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy) looking sharp beat. If there might be an edge with the series shifted to Tampa, it's the absence of Panthers forward and catalyst Sam Bennett, out at least a week with what appeared a wrist injury suffered in Game 2. In a series of such tight margins, the absence of a key cog like Bennett looms large, and the Lightning will play with real urgency tonight. Play Lightning on Money Line
Are the Knicks better than everyone thought...or are they simply tempting fate? Leaving it late as in Game 2 suggests that maybe it's the former, as even with Jalen Brunson shooting only 29% from the floor in the series (and just 7 of 28 in Game 2), New York still forged a 2-0 lead at MSG vs. the Sixers. Or, are the Knicks standing on the precipice, risking everything collapsing if Brunson doesn't begin to ignite like he did prior to the playoffs, when scoring nearly 36 pg in the first half of April? There are plausible explanations both wasy, but we do know both previous games cleared 204, and each was trending strongly "over" prior to Monday's game. Play Knicks-Sixers "Over"
The Padres have beaten the Rockies seven out of eight times. Randy Vasquez made his first start for the Padres and lost to Toronto 5-2 allowing four runs in five innings. But the bet here is against Dakota Hudson who hasn't won in four starts for the Rockies and it's been him that's been the culprit of the losses. He's allowed 15 runs in four starts already. I'm taking the Padres.
The Royals like winning better than losing, they've won the last two against the Blue Jays after losing seven straight to them between last year and this year. It's a new brand of Royals. But Jose Berrios is on another planet. He hasn't allowed a run in his last three starts and has allowed three runs total on the season. He's won all five of his starts. It's the best run of his career. So I'm not betting against him and I don't care who is pitching for the Royals. He's cheap and he's on a vibe that I'm going to ride. Blue Jays to win.
A team returning home down 0-2 in the series is very much a system play that I have to trust. These Game 3 situations tend to get the group as motivated as they'll ever be to avoid falling into an 0-3 hole. These two teams met last season in the first round. Carolina took the first two games at home, the series went to New York, and the Islanders won Game 3 5-1. I am bumping this down to a .5u play because the way Game 2 ended could just be so demoralizing for the Isles, but I'm expecting a spirited and aggressive effort to make this a series.