43 Expert Picks
Brady Singer has posted a strong 2.62 ERA massively aided by an unsustainable .209 BABIP, and this could be the matchup where he experiences some regression. The Rangers have an excellent 110 OPS+ against righties and Nathaniel Lowe has provided a boost since missing the first 21 games on the IL. The Royals also have a well-rested bullpen after Thursday's off-day was preceded by two games where relievers only covered two innings in each. Singer has struggled with walks of late (three issued in each of last three) and has only thrown five innings in three of his last four. I think that's a more reasonable expectation than the Over juice indicates.
Small play as I love these Cubs Friday matinees. They often have a major advantage with the quick turnaround but don't here as the Cubs played yesterday and Milwaukee didn't. Still, 10-3 at home. If the Brewers were starting anyone but Joe Ross on the mound, probably not. Craig Counsell's first game against his former club.
Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen is listed as questionable tonight. The Cavaliers are 8-15 SU as away underdogs, losing by an average of 7.48 points and have lost their last seven as dogs as well. They’ve lost down games in Orlando by 30.5 points while also doing under their team total in both contests. The Magic are 21-6 ATS as home favorites this season. This is a zig-zag theory type of series with home court meaning everything.
The Angels have lost 10 of their last 12 games despite just wrapping up a nine-game homestand, and now they hit the road to face one of MLB's best teams. Don't believe me? The Guardians are 16-6 in non-one run games, have a top-five run differential and are 11-7 against teams that are .500 or better. I don't think they're getting properly priced on the run line at home against an Angels team that's lost by two-plus runs in 15 of its 31 games and is now missing star slugger Mike Trout.
Martin Perez is quietly having a solid season in Pittsburgh and his underlying metrics suggest he's running cold in the strikeout department. Perez is averaging the highest CSW% of his 13 year career. He gets a favorable matchup against a dismal Rockies team that has been terrible on the road and possesses the 7th highest K rate against opposing southpaws. Considering Perez's outs prop is set at 17.5, if he gets in 6 IP today, I believe he has a great chance of racking up 5 Ks.
Jose Quintana has not pitched to the level of his 3.48 ERA, as a 6.00 xERA clearly shows. But this is a good spot for him to throw at least six innings. For starters, the Mets needed 98 pitches from their bullpen in an 11-inning win yesterday and have used at least four relievers for three straight days, meaning they should look to give the bullpen a little bit of a break today if possible. Quintana has a great matchup against a Rays offense that has just a 78 OPS+ (100 is average) against lefty pitchers this year, so it's an even better spot than the Rays' 3.75 runs/game average suggests. I think Quintana gets through six full innings in this situation.
So when I write the daily newsletter for subscribers (sign up!), I include the trends at books in terms of whom is betting what. Get all those in a feed. Is RSS still a thing? Bobby Witt Under 1.5 hits is the No. 1 most-wagered hits market prop at DK. I don't often tail but I do like to see what people are doing in case I missed something. Witt a very good player who has multiple hits in back-to-back games but not George Brett. And he's 0-for-5 off Texas starter Michael Lorenzen. This is just math. If Witt doesn't get a hit in the first inning ... well it's Breaking 2: Electric Boogaloo time.
This series has been incredibly physical, and the defensive ferocity has really upped its game of late. That, plus Jeremy Swayman and Joseph Woll are playing lights out between the pipes. It all adds up to an under here in Game 7. No game has yet gone over six goals, so feel free to buy this up to a flat 6 if you'd like some insurance. Three straight have gone under 5.5, including two straight 2-1 contests. A similar pace seems in store here.
Karl Anthony Towns has returned to Minnesota's lineup and after a couple of quiet games appears to have gotten his legs back. This is a criminally low number for a scorer the caliber for KAT in a playoff setting where he could play upwards of 40 minutes. He logged 39 minutes in the 4th and deciding game against the Suns which was certainly a welcome sign on his way to scoring 28 points. He is facing a much better defense in Denver, however this line should be at least 20.5 if he is going to log 35+ minutes again.
The small park in Cincy is a problem for Hunter Greene, who can throw over 100 regularly but whose command really hurts him by filling the basepathes. O'Hearn is a smart hitter, he knows Greene is a two pitch guy and he's pretty adept at getting himself into fastball counts. O'Hearn has a ridiculous 59% hard hit rate vs 4-seams, velo is not a problem for him and he is 100th percentile in xSLG and 91st in barrel%. O'Hearn has a .990 OPS vs righties this season. This ballpark should play very well for him. I like him to jump something tonight (and yeah a HR is very much in play here, too).
Phil Nevin's kid may have found a home in Oakland. Nevin flashed a professional approach in brief stints with BAL and DET but never got a consistent run of ABs after shining in the minors. He is confident right now, batting .325 and he is mashing vs lefties (6 RBI in 27 ABs with an 1.100 OPS). Can find a lot of doubles in this huge park with his approach, and sports a 1.200 OPS at home, but has 20 more ABs on the road with the nature of A's schedule and his ascent. Righties are batting .291 off Ryan Weathers.
The Blue Jays offense has yet to hit its stride, but one batter performing well is Justin Turner, who has his highest batting average since 2020 and his highest slugging percentage since 2018. He's crushed lefties this year (9 of 18 with five doubles and a homer) and crushed Patrick Corbin specifically in his career (.410/.477/.667 with six extra-base hits in 44 plate appearances). He posted a .900 OPS last year against lefties as well in a larger sample size. Corbin is the type of pitcher we like to pick on anyway (6.82 ERA, 17 XBHs surrendered in 31.2 innings), and Turner is the obvious way to do that today.
Sears is maturing at a great rate for OAK and looks like a top-end starter in the making. He has found his command and is keeping even elite MLB batters off balance from the left side and the Marlins stink at pretty much everything baseball related - especially hitting southpaws. As good as OAK bullpen is, you can't burn out those young arms too early in a season and after playing tight games vs the Yanks and O's on the road, I like Sears to settle in and provide length here back in his huge home ballpark. A's getting their best defensive OF back up from the minors last month was huge for their staff, too
Where would the Jays be without JT? Probably 5 or 6 games under .500. He is the only big bat going, and he knows it, and I suspect he hunts the longball tonight vs Patrick Corbin. Turner owns him (who doesn't?) with 2 HR and a 1.144 OPS vs him in 39 career ABs. Turner has 8 RBIs vs him and though they have not faced each other in a few years, JT has hits off him in 4 of his last 5 plate appearances.
We've laid out how Freeman owns Morton. We know Freeman was a 50+ doubles monster last year and how he has found gaps throughout his entire career and he's starting to get going again in that regard. In 11 times seeing Morton since the start of 2020, Freeman has 7 hits, including 2 HRs and 2 Doubles and some sharp lineouts. Morton either strikes him out, or he hits the ball hard somewhere, often out of the park