The Ambush – NFL Week 3 DFS plays from Steve Renner

NFL DFS Week 3

Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week.

Lets dive into first the breakdown for this week and how it is going to be laid out for you.  I want to walk through notes on a few games that I am really going to be ‘fading’ for the most part.  This is going to be a more tournament focused approach for everyone but that doesn’t mean these are plays to avoid necessarily in cash games.  I hate to recommend players that I do not feel would be in good spots as that tends to be the type of analysis that you might hear elsewhere from folks who wanna say “you can play him, sure” to almost every player thrown out there.  The narrative that “he’s a GPP player” or “he’s a CASH player” is stupid in my mind.  Roster construction and salary may drive a decision specifically on a player, but you should really be breaking a player down into two types of players.

  • MAIN Plays … The guys you plug into your lineup FIRST when building.   These are generally the best of the chalk plays for a given week.
  • Filler plays … These are almost always the value plays that you use to fill into a lineup.  In these cases, you’ll obviously have more exposure to different guys.

 

What are the AMBUSH plays?   These are my contrarian plays of the week or the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays.  These players are guys that I am playing on my higher $ tournament lineups in addition to the MAIN plays.

 

 

Week 3 Sunday Morning Updates and Thoughts 

  • Forgot to add Fades …
    • WATER
  • Dolphins Defense is really creeping up on me.  Raiders west to east, 1pm early start and locker room issues.  This could be a f’n trainwreck for the Raid-duhz
  • Saints Defense scores
  • The HOU/NYG game is my favorite game of the day (excluding the SNF game)
  • Saints/Falcons UNDER, but just barely….
  • The Len Fournette inactive does nothing for me.   Bortles sucks but consider Donte Moncreif

 

 

GAMES THAT DO VERY LITTLE FOR ME

Bills @ Vikings … Lets get this out of the way quickly.  This should be a blow out here and the Bills are a 100% funnel defense to running backs.  Latavius Murray is one of the obvious chalk plays this week and he along with the Vikings Defense are the only things I would consider here.  Both are guys that feel obvious and that I like to produce.

Colts @ Eagles … Almost an exact replica of the Bills/Vikes game except the Colts have the ability to air it out a little bit here and TY Hilton could be in for one big play against an Eagles secondary which has struggled last year and this year at times with the deep ball and WR1.  That said, I expect the Eagles D to come out this week and dominate the game and give their offense a short field which will certainly give chalk Corey Clement some good chances to punch in a score and he’s almost an exact replica of Latavius Murray in that he’s the primary back due to other guys being injured and his team should be ahead most of the game.  Like I said, RB and DEF are the players I would pick off here just like with the Vikings game.

Bengals @ Panthers … Here’s my notes on this one.  I’d rather watch pigs have intercourse.   I want no part of the Gio Bernard chalk in Carolina where the Panthers D is vulnerable in the air but respectable on the ground and I cannot trust Dalton and Green even on the road this week.  That shoe is about to fall off.

Titans @ Jaguars .. Titans O vs Jags D?  No.   Injured Fournette and Yeldon vs Titans?  No.  Next.

Broncos @ Ravens … There’s one specific play here in this game and it’s Emmanuel Sanders who is a popular tournament play this week given Keenums desire to target him out of the slot and it’s a good match-up.  But that said with rain in the forecast here I doubt we see the Broncos do much offensively through the air.  They are flying in late on Saturday to try and mix up issues with playing on the east coast last year and I doubt this changes much this week.

Cowboys @ Seahawks … Some folks are on both defenses simply because the offenses are so thin.   Yes, they’re cheap and it’s a decent spot for a punt defense.  But why would I force them in when we have Vikings, Eagles and Bears so clearly at the top and all three have better chances of actually SCORING on defense.

 

MAIN CORE PLAYS

QUARTERBACK

This is the hardest position this week, which ultimately tells me that it is one we don’t need to start our lineups with this week.   

Image result for drew brees

JIMMY G — This is a classic case of playing PT/$ expectations between the two sites.  If Brees and Jimmy are the same price it is Brees, but there’s a 1k salary difference on FanDuel and I’ll take Jimmy G who is getting Marquise Goodwin back and should have a field day with throwing to Breida out of the backfield and also I like a big game for TE George Kittle against the Chiefs.

DREW BREES — As much as a homer as I am, I always hate to write up Brees as a top play because he’s almost always a top play.  But so far through two games the Saints have not been able to find a complementary running back to Kamara that they can trust to play balanced and thus Brees has been throwing a ton again — which is never a bad strategy.  Add in that the defense has given up more big plays this year and we have a recipe for Brees throwing the ball 35+ times.  Given that this is the most accurate Quarterback of all time and someone who is going to finish his career as the leader in touchdowns, passing yards and completions we should be pretty ecstatic to roster Brees in a game where he will throw 35+ times against a defense who is playing with a reserve safety and middle linebacker — Two of the most critical positions to stopping Brees (kudos if you can guess the third).   With all that said, I am not expecting some 400 yard performance out of Brees, but given his price on DK and knowing what I should get, I like him this week.  FanDuel he is too expensive for me.

Fill-In’s:  Alex Smith, Philip Rivers, Jared Goff

RUNNING BACKS

Late week value here as we have some guys in spots where they’re the primary back and should all do well, but I don’t think that’s an automatic translation into them being on the winning lineups, and so when there’s 8 guys who are listed as good plays you simply pick the 3-4 you like the most and go from there.  These are my four.

Image result for kareem huntTEVIN COLEMAN — If Atlanta is smart their game plan this week is to feed Coleman the ball 20+ times against the Saints who can be run on and Coleman has always been a thorn in the side of the Saints.  He should amass a ton of yards here in this game and the only question is can the Falcons find a way to get him into the end-zone.

KAREEM HUNT — This is a Hunt week.  At home on the Arrowhead grass with the 49ers poor rushing defense coming into town, now is the time for the Chiefs to hit the 49ers with the screen game and Hunt’s 6k price on DraftKings is a steal for a game that is expected to be high scoring.  If you wanna roll Mahomes, pair him with Hunt, but if you are on other QB’s like me then get Hunt into your lineups to cover that Chiefs exposure this week.  He scores twice.

LATAVIUS MURRAY — This is all about value.  I mentioned above that there are some obvious value plays and of those groupings I would be the most confident in Murray against a Bills Rush D that likely gives up another 3 touchdowns on the ground this week.  I feel like just taking the obvious value at RB this week and moving on from there.

ALVIN KAMARA — The only reason I am listing him fourth is because of price and roster construction.   Obvious analysis here as Kamara the human joystick and PPR machine who we roster as a running back faces the team that gives up the most catches to opposing running backs.  Last year Kamara played the equivalence of half of one drive against the Falcons and it was clear that the Saints were intending to make him their focal point for that game before he got concussed.  He played two weeks later when they met again but was clearly limited in terms of his usage in that game.  He should be full go here so the volume and match-up is a spot where he should get you the 20 points that you expect for his higher price tag.  Also, can we stop with the bitching about him scoring despite not carrying the ball much?  I don’t see why we care how teams get their stars the ball as long as they are getting them involved.

Fill-In’s:   Matt Breida, Ken Drake, Chris Thompson, Austin Ekeler, Frank Gore

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

There’s some logical reasoning to pay down at RB this week and pay up at WR.  When we have the value of a RB being the “only guy in town” it means folks can pay up for the premium WR1’s and I don’t disagree with that entirely this week but I have a guy who is in the AMBUSH section who I really like so check that out for a nice pivot.

MICHAEL THOMAS — Cant.  Guard.   Mike.   He’s handled the physical Atlanta defenders just fine and Atlanta tries their best to keep the ball underneath which really funnels everything to Thomas.  Another 10+ catch day is likely for MT this week.

Image result for keenan allenKEENAN ALLEN — Attacking the Rams with a WR is not always the best move, but in talking with Chris Rose he kind of helped drive up my love for Keenan Allen this week.  He’s gonna be in the slot as he normally is and Rose feels the Rams will have to slide into more zone coverage this week which really opens up for a dream scenario for someone like Allen to have a HUGE receptions day.

WILL FULLER — Sneak peak at a game that I love….  Okay, I can’t tease it anymore, the AMBUSH play is going to link up with Fuller this week and his big play ability is a direct correlation that I want in what I feel will be a sneaky high scoring game this week.  Watson and Fuller have been a deadly combination when both are healthy and we have that here this week.

MO SANU — The Saints really don’t have a CB who matches up well with Sanu since Lattimore is on Julio Jones.  They’re gonna be starting PJ Williams who likely will draw about 2-3 PI flags early on Sanu when he gets on him, but I suspect at some point Sanu could be a deadly redzone target this week for Atlanta.  In a game with expected offense (I think the game comes UNDER though) we should look to get some of the Falcons passing game and Sanu is the cheap TD play I would look for here.

KENNY STILLS — The Dolphins have two guys who can exploit a slow Raiders defense and Stills is the guy to benefit the most in my mind.  With extra time to pass due to the Raiders lacking a real pass rusher (hmm…) we should see Tannehill airing it out this week and that’s a ton of Kenny Stills bombs.

49ERS WR — We have to monitor Goodwin but all signs are a go as of now.  That said, do not forget about last weeks value hype play Dante Pettis in what is expected to be a very high scoring game I would definitely go back to him this week even with Goodwin back in the mix.

Fill-In’s:   Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Manny Sanders

 

TIGHT ENDS

GEORGE KITTLE — With question marks on the 49ers WR this is easily my favorite correlation play with Jimmy G this week.

TRAVIS KELCE — Kelce is your top premium TE this week.  You could pivot to Zach Ertz for lower ownership with Wentz back at QB, however I would trust going to Kelce against the 49ers if you are going to pivot off Kareem Hunt or Tyreek Hill this week.

Fill-In’s:  Ben Watson, Jordan Reed, Jared Cook

 

DEFENSES

VIKINGS — No reason not to expect them to have a solid day, but I don’t mind saving money with the other choices here.

EAGLES — I think they score this week

BEARS — Nice 4pm hammer on the west coast against the Cardinals putrid offense

 

 

THE AMBUSH PLAYS

I decided to move the Ambush plays all down to their own section to make it easier to read.  There will be some weeks where the Ambush plays are stacks and some weeks it is just a single player at each position where I am pivoting off and looking for a sneaky play.  These are always intended to be players that I am interested in who will be lower owned.

This week the Ambush plays just happen to be among my favorite plays of the week.

 

Image result for eli manning odell beckham jr animated gif

ODELL BECKHAM JR

I LOVE OBJ this week.  Like the other elite receivers who are chalk (Thomas, Hill, Julio) he’s virtually match-up proof as he proved earlier this year when he got 5 catches and 75 yards while Jalen Ramsey was guarding him in their week 1 match-up so we know he can produce even against an elite CB.  And the Houston Texans don’t have anyone near Jalen Ramsey in their secondary.  As good as Jonathan Joseph used to be, at age 34 he is no longer an elite CB and Kareem Jackson is back at CB.  Throw in maybe a little LSU competitive narrative between OBJ and Tyron Matthieu here and we have the makings for what will be a 5% star player who has 150 yard and 2 TD upside.   The Giants despite all their offensive line issues have remained committed to the pass in the first two games, so I don’t mind the pace or the likely game plan and I have to trust that they will do MORE this week to improve the offensive line pass protection which could mean getting the ball out quickly into the hands of OBJ and Shepard this week and letting them torch the Texans secondary.

Full Game Stacks

  • Manning-Beckham-Shepard-Fuller — Preferred
  • Watson-Hopkins-Fuller-Beckham

 

JIMMY GRAHAM

The Redskins and Packers game will be played in a little rain on Sunday but that won’t slow down the Packers passing game.  The Redskins should be able to limit any threat of a rushing attack from Green Bay and I think the Redskins will ultimately win the game and that will add into the Packers having to throw it even more.  The best threat against the Skins this week?  Yeah, the OTHER Jimmy G.  An odd ball stack this week is Graham paired up with Alex Smith and Jordan Reed or Vernon Davis.

 

Image result for phil rivers animated gifPHILIP RIVERS v JARED GOFF

There’s a ton of love being given to two games (Falcons-Saints and 49ers-Chiefs) this week but the game in L.A. between the two L.A. teams is one that I am high on this week.  I think both teams have respectable defenses but it will be the Quarterbacks who end up dominating the game.   I outlined above my love for Keenan Allen this week and I think Rivers and the Chargers will find it nearly impossible to get a consistent ground game going this week.  This is going to be Rivers airing it out to Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler.  I’ll have this core on two lineups this week, one with Gurley and another with Woods/Cooks.

The Jared Goff love is simply for this being a shootout and while everyone is expecting the work to come on the ground, I wouldn’t sleep on the fact that the Chargers will have a nightmare matchup problem with who to cover between Woods, Cooks and Gurley when the Rams decide to pass…

Stacks:

  • Rivers-Ekeler-Allen-Gurley
  • Rivers-Ekeler-Allen-Cooks
  • Goff-Gurley-Allen-Woods-Cooks

 

 

 

PREDICTIONS

  • Saints/Falcons UNDER
  • Chargers win
  • OBJ totals 150+ yards and 2 TD and leads all players in PPR scoring
  • Four defenses not named the Vikings score defensive touchdowns this week including New Orleans
  • Redskins win
About Steve Renner 598 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.