NFL DFS: Week 11 WR Report

NFL WR REPORT

FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP)

Michael Thomas (DK – $8,800/FD – $8,800): Thomas climbed to 2.70 Fantasy points from the lead of WR scoring in PPR leagues after posting his fifth strong game of the year (16/180/1, 12/89/2, 10/129, 12/211/1, and 8/70/2). Last week he left some stats on the table after the game got out of hand. The success of the Saints run game over the last six games has led to fewer than ten targets in five of those starts. Michael averages 9.7 targets per game. The Eagles fell to 28th in WR defense (140/1749/9 on 216 targets) with three disaster showings (TB – 20/276/3, TEN – 19/271/2, and MIN – 20/228/1). Four WRs have over 100 yards receiving vs. Philly (Julio Jones – 10/169, DeSean Jackson – 4/129/1, Corey Davis – 9/161/1, and Adam Thielen – 7/116/1). The Eagles should be without CB Jalen Mills, which is another positive for Thomas. A favorable matchup with another chance at 7+ catches for 100+ yards with a TD with more upside if the Saints are forced to throw.

Odell Beckham (DK – $8,400/FD – $8,500): Last week Beckham only caught four of his 11 targets, but two of those catches resulted in TDs. Odell has six games with over 20 Fantasy points (11/111, 9/109, 8/131/1, 8/143/1, and 4/73/2) in DK scoring. He’s on pace to set career highs in catches (116) and yards (1,525). His lack of TDs (4) is tied to poor play by the Giants’ offense (17 TDs). Tampa allows the second-most Fantasy points to WRs (134/1585/15 on 174 targets) with four teams gaining over 200 yards (NO – 23/268/2, PIT – 20/200/2, ATL – 19/278/1, and CIN – 15/219/2) with one other failed game (CHI – 10/147/4). The Bucs don’t have a WR that can cover which points to an explosive game if New York finds their rhythm on offense for the first time all year.

DeAndre Hopkins (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,600): Hopkins has a TD in four straight games (five total) pushing his season total to seven. DeAndre has four games with over 100 yards receiving (6/110/1, 10/169/1, 9/151, and 10/105/1) with one other 20-point Fantasy game (6/82/2). This season his catch rate (70.0) is much higher than in 2017 (55.1) while averaging ten targets per game. Washington played poorly defending WRs over the last six games (NO – 14/273/2, CAR – 15/189/2, DAL – 15/211/1, NYG – 16/218, ATL – 17/237/2, and TB – 17/274) leading to them falling to 26th in WR defense (127/1763/10 on 185 targets). CB Josh Norman hasn’t played well in 2018, and the Texans will get Hopkins is more favorable situations in the passing game. Very winnable matchup while expecting to extend his TD streak with over 100 yards receiving.

Mike Evans (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,400): After a nice start to the year over the first seven games (46/770/4), Evans struggled in his last two games (1/16 and 3/51 on 16 combined targets). He scored a TD in his first three games, but only one TD in his last six starts. Mike has five games with over 20.0 Fantasy points (7/147/1, 10/83/1, 6/137/1, 7/107, and 6/179/1) while averaging 9.3 targets per game. The Giants have the fifth best WR defense (101/1424/6 on 166 targets) while showing some risk vs. WRs in three games (HOU – 13/225/1, PHI – 14/202/2, and ATL – 21/255/1). Only two WRs have over 100 yards receiving against New York (Will Fuller – 5/101/1 and Julio Jones – 9/104). The Giants lack size at CB with risk in all areas. New York should score, which is a positive for Evans’ upside. Ths stats suggests against the grain, but Tampa’ passing game tells me Mike could be a gold mine in Week 11.

Alshon Jeffery (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,300): After looking great in three of his first four starts (8/105/1, 8/74/2, and 7/88/1) in 2018, Jeffery struggled to make plays in the last two games (4/35 and 4/48) against two teams (JAX and DAL) that ranked highly defending WRs. Overall, Alshon averages 8.7 targets per game. The Saints are the 32nd in the league against WRs (138/2025/16 on 193 targets) with huge failure in three games (TB – 18/361/4, ATL – 17/285/4, MIN – 16/274/2, and LAR – 16/274/2) with struggled in one other game (16/237/1). CB Eli Apple struggled to defend Jeffery in Week 6 with New York while showing risk in two of his three starts for the Saints. Alshon should be very active in this game while having a favorable salary for his expected opportunity.

T.Y. Hilton (DK – $6,100/FD – $6,800): Fantasy owners are still waiting for that impact game from Hilton. Over his last four games, T.Y. has only 12 catches for 251 yards and two TDs while averaging 5.5 targets per game. He only has seven catches over 20 yards in 2018, which is well below his success in his last full season with Luck behind center (28 catches over 20 yards). The Titans are 24th in NFL vs. WRs (121/1614/11 on 185 targets) with four teams gaining over 200 yards (MIA – 16/201/2, HOU – 17/268/2, LAC – 11/258/2, and NE – 15/203). CB Malcolm Butler will give up big plays and TDs, which looks like the perfect storm for Hilton to finally deliver an impact game. Excellent shot at 100+ yards with a chance at multiple TDs. The Titans play well vs. the run, and they will be concerned with the Colts’ TEs in this game.

Amari Cooper (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,600): Cooper has been relevant in his two starts for the Cowboys (5/58/1 and 6/75) while averaging nine targets. On the year, Amari has two strong games (10/116 and 8/128/1) with emptiness in three other contests (1/9, 2/17, and 1/10). Atlanta allows the fourth-most Fantasy points to WRs (123/1714/14 on 185 targets) with disaster in four games (CAR – 16/223/3, CIN – 18/238/2, TB – 17/273/1, and NYG – 14/321/1). The Cowboys should be able to get him favorable situations in coverage leading to a TD and 100+ yards receiving. A nice matchup with a rising floor for Dallas.

Demaryius Thomas (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,600): With two more weeks to learn the Texans’ offense, Thomas should be much more involved in the passing game in Week 11. In his first game for Houston, he caught all three of his targets for 61 yards. On the year with a lower tier QB throwing the ball, Demaryius only has two games of value (6/63/1 and 5/105/1) while averaging only 6.6 targets per game. CB Danny Johnson will have a step up in playing time with Quinton Dunbar battling a shin injury. Johnson has been a liability so far in his limited snap. Either way, Thomas will have a favorable matchup with a much better opportunity for success with Houston. In the mix for sure at this level.

 

 

MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP)

Antonio Brown (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,500): Brown has a TD in seven straight games (nine total) while also scoring in Week 1. The Steelers have relied on the run game over the last few weeks, which led to only five to six catches in his last seven starts. Antonio has two games with over 100 yards receiving (6/101/2 and 5/105/1) while trailing his previous success in catches over 20 yards (nine – 74 over his previous 45 games). The Jaguars give the appearance of fading badly in defense, but they still rank first in the NFL vs. WRs (97/1173/5) with no team gaining over 180 yards receiving at WR. A date vs. CB Jalen Ramsey will keep Brown somewhat in check in this game.

Tyler Boyd (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,000): With A.J. Green on the sidelines last week, Cinci struggled to move the ball with Boyd being the casualty. Tyler came up short in two of his last three games (3/27 and 3/65 with eight combined targets). Boyd has five special games (6/91/1, 6/132/1, 11/1000, 7/62/2, and 9/138/1) with the first showing coming vs. the Ravens. Baltimore is sixth in the league defending WRs (110/1236/8 on 180 targets), which is helped by two great games vs. WRs (BUF – 7/57 and TEN – 4/70) when their defensive line dominated the line of scrimmage. No WR has over 100 yards receiving vs. the Ravens with Cinci having the most success (12/168/4). Easy fade.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,200): After ten weeks, Smith-Schuster is the 11th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues with five nice games (5/119, 13/121/1, 9/116, 7/111, and 3/90/1). After averaging 10.5 targets over his first six games, JuJu only has 20 targets over the last three weeks. His TD production (3) is lower than expected. The Jaguars played without their number two CB (A.J. Bouje) over the last two games, which is part of the reason for Jacksonville fading on defense. Bouje is trending toward playing this week. His matchup with CB D.J. Hayden looks favorable, but a lower scoring game with limit his chances. Not ideal in the daily games.

Keenan Allen (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,600): After nine games, Allen is the 17th ranked WR in PPR leagues (53/687/2) with his best game coming in Week 1 (8/108/1). Keenan has one other game over 100 yards and one more TD. He averages 8.3 targets per game with a high catch rate (70.7). Denver is 14th against WRs (111/1434/10 on 173 targets) with only one team gaining over 200 yards (OAK – 19/219/1). Five WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Broncos (Amari Cooper – 10/116, Robby Anderson – 3/123/2, Robert Woods – 7/109, Sammy Watkins – 8/107/2, and DeAndre Hopkins 10/105/1). C Chris Harris is one of the best slot CBs in the league while Allen plays his best at home. Easy to overlook based on his path in 2018 while still having the talent to pay off at this level.

 

BAD MATCHUP (AVOID)

 

 

NEUTRAL (ANY FORMAT)

Julio Jones (DK – $8,500/FD – $8,700): Jones has been a WR rock in five of his last six games (9/173, 10/144, 9/104, 7/121/1, and 7/107/1) while scoring a TD in two straight games. Julio averages 11.3 targets per game with a high catch rate (65.7) while being on pace for 119 catches for 1,849 yards and four TDs. Dallas ranks second in the league defending WRs (97/196/6 on 146 targets) with only one team having a strong game at the WR position (DET – 15/262/2). The Cowboys hasn’t allowed a TD to a WR over the last three games. Two WRs have over has 100 yards receiving against the Dallas (Golden Tate – 8/132/2 and DeAndre Hopkins – 9/151). The Cowboys have one strong CB (Byron Jones), but he stays mostly one side of the field.

Emmanuel Sanders (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,200): When Sanders plays well in 2018, he delivers 100+ yards with a TD which was the case in three games (10/135/1, 7/115/1, and 6/102/1). Over his last two games, Emmanuel came up short in production (4/57 and 6/47 on 13 targets). He averages 8.2 targets per game while expecting his chance to rise going forward with Demaryius Thomas traded. The Chargers struggled in two of their first three games vs. WRs (KC – 12/206/3 and LAR – 21/265/3), but they’ve held five of their last six opponents to 125 yards or fewer with only one WR TD over the last four games. Overall, LA is now 8th in WR Fantasy defense (105/1339/10 on 164 targets). A volume type wide receiver who should avoid the Chargers’ top twp CBs on most plays.

John Brown (DK – $5,900/FD – $5,400): Brown has been a tough ride in four of his last five games (4/58, 2/28, 3/28, and 3/15). His best three games came in Week 2 (4/92/1), Week 4 (3/116/1), and Week 7 (7/134/1) with the first game coming against the Bengals. John averages 7.4 targets per game with a short catch rate (50.7). Cinci fell to 30th in WR defense (131/1761/11 on 206 targets) with two disaster games (ATL – 21/344/2 and TB – 19/360/2). Baltimore needs a big game defensively, which points to a ball control offense and minimal upside in passes. A favorable matchup, but Fantasy owners don’t know who will start at QB for the Ravens.

Kenny Golladay (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,400): After hitting the ball off the fairway over the previous three weeks (2/37, 1/12, and 3/46), Golladay played well in Week 10 (6/78/1) with a season-high 13 targets. His opportunity for double-digit targets should remain high with Golden Tate looking to soar in Philly. Kenny has four other steady games (7/114, 6/89/1, 6/53/1, and 4/98/1) while averaging 6.8 targets per game. The Panthers sit 19th vs. WRs (119/1527/9 on 189 targets) with three teams gaining over 200 yards from the WR position (CIN – 15/218/1, NYG – 17/285/1, and PIT – 12/226/2). His matchup with CB James Bradberry looks neutral. Viable option at this level especially with Marvin Jones banged up. Matthew Stafford will have no choice but look his way early and often.

Calvin Ridley (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,500): Over the last five games, Ridley has four short games (4/38, 3/47, 5/43, and 3/37) with one game of success (6/71/1). Over this span, Calvin averaged 5.6 targets per game. In his first three games at home, he caught 15 passes for 264 yards and six TDs on 19 targets. Last week Ridley was on the field 71 percent of the plays from by Atlanta, which was a season high. Dallas has one strong outside CB while ranking favorably defending the pass. Ridley has enough scoring and big-play ability to start him at home in the season-long games, but he falls more into the gamble category in the daily games.

Corey Davis (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,200): Last week Davis had his second impact game (7/125/1) with his other game (9/161/1) also coming at home. In his five road games, Corey doesn’t have a game of value (6/62, 2/34, 4/49, 3/10, and 5/56). He averages 8.4 targets per game with shallow catch rate (56.6). The Colts are 10th in the league defending WRs (110/1335/10 on 157 targets). Only one team has over 200 yards receiving (NE – HOU – 26/340/2) against Indy. CB Pierre Desir tends to keep WRs in front of him with minimal damage in TDs. A neutral matchup on the road while owning the talent to post an elite game.

Larry Fitzgerald (DK – $5,600/FD – $5,900): Fitzgerald has been at least playable in the season-long games over the last three games (4/40/1, 8/102/1, and 6/50) while averaging ten targets per game. Over the first six games, Larry only had 35 targets (5.8 per game). Josh Rosen has over 20 completion in each of his last four games, which helps the floor of Fitzgerald. Oakland is league average against WRs (100/1447/12 on 164 targets) with two teams gaining over 200 yards from the WR position (MIA – 12/287/4 and LAC – 14/201). His matchup vs. CB Nick Nelson is favorable. Possible TD with steady production in yards and catches.

Golden Tate (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,600): Last week Tate wasn’t game plan ready as he only saw the field for 18 of 62 plays (29 percent) run by the Eagles. Philly used Jordan Matthews as their WR3. The Saints have the most risk in the passing game vs. slot WRs, which is a big plus for Golden. CB P.J. Williams gives up plenty of catches, yards after the catch, and TDs falling into Tate skill set. All he needs to playing time. Worth a dart for sure in a Wentz stack even if you don’t trust his opportunity.

Sterling Shepard (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,300): Last week Shepard has a season-low three targets, but he did score the game-winning TD late in the game. Over his first eight games, Sterling averaged 7.4 targets per game with three strong games (6/80/1, 10/77/1, and 5/167). CB Javien Elliott will be tested in this matchup out of the slot while seeing plays thrown to his area of the field over the last two games. Most Fantasy owners will be drawn toward Odell Beckham in this game while Shepard produces the better game.

Marvin Jones (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,200): Jones is listed as questionable for this week’s game with a bone bruise in his knee. Marvin has four TDs in nine games with one impact game (7/117/2). Over his last three games, he averaged 8.3 targets. CB Donte Jackson will give up a high catch rate with some risk after the catch and allowing TDs. Need more info before even thinking about him in the daily games.

Devin Funchess (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,700): Funchess has been a donation in the daily games over his last three games (3/27, 4/44, and 3/32) while averaging over 4.3 targets per game. Devin only has four mid-teen games (7/77, 4/67/1, 5/74/1, and 6/62/1). Over the first six games, he averaged 7.8 targets. The Lions are 12th defending WRs (88/1382/13 on 130 targets) with two teams gaining over 200 yards from the WR position (GB – 19/297/2 and CHI – 11/255/3). CB Darius Slay missed last week’s game, which would be a plus for Funchess if that happened this week. More boring than impactful.

DeSean Jackson (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,300): Jackson caught five of his eight targets last week for 67 yards while receiving a season-high 64 percent of the WR snaps in Tampa. With Chris Godwin battling an ankle injury, DeSean should see a bump in playing time this week against the Giants. New York can struggle with speed WRs (Will Fuller – 5/101/1 and Marvin Hall – 3/63/1). If Godwin is ruled out, Jackson has a chance to be the most rewarded in the Bucs’ offense.

Donte Moncrief (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,500): Moncrief has been the Jaguars’ best WR over the last six weeks despite a zero in Week 6. Over this span, Donte caught 25 passes for 413 yards and two TDs on 43 targets. He has the most WR snaps for Jacksonville in 2018 while being on the field for about 80 percent of the time. Pittsburgh sits 22nd vs. WRs (128/1583/11 on 205 targets) with most of their failure coming from Week 2 to Week 4 (KC – 14/210/3, TB – 17/278/2, and BAL – 14/234/1). Over the last four games, the Steelers allowed fewer than 160 yards to WRs with three TDs. CB Coty Sensabaugh looks like an even match in coverage.

Michael Crabtree (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,800): Crabtree wasn’t a factor in any Fantasy format over his last two games (3/31 and 3/32). His only game of value came in Week 6 (6/93/1). Michael has fewer than 70 yards receiving in eight games while averaging 8.4 targets per game with a fading catch rate (53.9). CB William Jackson will allow big plays and some TDs, but the Ravens doesn’t have strong enough QB play to trust the upside of the passing game with Joe Flacco at risk of playing this week. His better days appear to be behind him.

Tyrell Williams (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,500): Williams still doesn’t have a game with over four catches or more than six targets. His best two games came in Week 6 (3/188/2) and Week 7 (4/118/1) when he hit on a couple of long scoring plays. On the year, Tyrell averages only four targets per game with five TDs. CB Bradley Roby struggled so far in 2018 while coming off an ankle injury. The key here is more chances in the passing game. Only a value if tied to Phillip Rivers.

Christian Kirk (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,100): Last week Kirk had his shortest game (2/8 on six targets) since Week 1 (1/4). Over a six-game stretch, Christian had 26 catches for 379 yards and two TDs on 37 targets. On the year, he averages 5.6 targets with two decent games (7/90 and 3/85/1). Oakland has risk at each CB slot, but teams can beat the Raiders in other ways. Price above his opportunity and his potential upside.

Dede Westbrook (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,300): Westbrook has fewer than 60 yards receiving in each of his last five games with two TDs on 30 targets. His best two games came in Week 2 (4/82/1) and Week 4 (9/130). CB Mike Hilton allows low yards per catch while doing a good job minimizing TDs. Big play type WR, but Jacksonville tends to work him closer to the line of scrimmage.

Courtland Sutton (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,600): In his first game with starting snaps, Sutton caught three of his five targets for 57 yards. He’s still looking for his first game with over three catches or more than 80 yards receiving. The Chargers strength in their two outside CBs, which makes Courtland a tough ride in Week 11. Upside talent who will shine at some point over the last seven weeks of the year. Sutton just needs to improve in his catch rate (47.6).

Maurice Harris (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,500): Over the last two games, Harris has 15 catches for 176 yards on 17 targets while receiving WR2 snaps in Washington. The Texans are 9th in the NFL against WRs (117/1407/6 on 189 targets) with no team earning more than two TDs to their WRs. Their worst game vs. WRs came in Week 4 vs. the Colts (25/344/1). Low-level name who needs the Redskins to attempt more passes to be viable in the daily games.

D.J. Moore (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,300): After flashing upside in Week 8 (129 combined yards with five catches), Moore struggled to make plays over the last two games (73 combined yards with five catches on seven targets). D.J. has WR2 snaps for the Panthers over the last two games. CB Nevin Lawson will give up some TDs and league average yards per catch. Not quite ready to be trusted in any format while being a decent flier if a Fantasy owner decides to use Cam Newton.

Josh Doctson (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,500): Doctson has a TD in two straight games, but he’s failed to gain over 50 yards receiving in each game this year. Josh averages 4.9 targets per game while never catching more than five balls in any game this season. CB Shareece Wright offers speed with a weak career resume in the NFL. Neutral matchup while Doctson continues to fall short of his expected talent.

Nelson Agholor (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,300): Most Fantasy owners feared Agholor would be lost in the WR passing rotation after the trade to get Golden Tate. Last week he caught five of his seven targets for 83 yards. His only TD came in Week 2 when Nelson posted his best game (8/88/1) of the year. With Alshon Jeffery out of the lineup over the first four weeks, Agholor averaged almost ten targets per game. Over his last five starts, he only received 29 targets (5.8 per game). His switch to left WR will lead to a matchup with CB Marshon Lattimore on many plays. Tough to get excited here even though he’s priced favorably and the Eagles will need to pass to win. Only viable for me if tied to Carson Wentz.

Tre’Quan Smith (DK – $4,000/FD – $4,900): Smith has been a Fantasy trap over the last four games after posting an elite game in Week 5 (3/111/2). Game score led to him being shutout on no targets last week after delivering minimal success the previous three weeks (3/44, 3/18, and 2/23/1). Last week the Eagles lost two of their starting CBs, which point to a big win for the Saints outside WRs. Seems empty, but his turn to be a Fantasy player may be on the horizon. Boom or bust type option.

Adam Humphries (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,500): After trending forward in Week 8 (7/76) and Week 9 (8/82/2), Humphries came up short in his last game (2/53 on three targets). Over his last five games, Adam has 24 catches for 320 yards and two TDs on 34 targets. CB B.W. Webb hasn’t allowed a TD in 2018, but he will allow a high catch rate with short yards. Possession type WR low scoring ability. If Chris Godwin can’t play, Humphries will get a bump in chances.

Shawn Childs
About Shawn Childs 425 Articles
Shawn Childs has been a high stakes Fantasy baseball and football player since 2004 where he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). In early years of the high stakes market in Fantasy baseball, he was ahead of the curve in player evaluation, draft value, and free agent bidding setting up four top-five finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has four AL-only Auction titles, one NL-only title, and five Main Event titles plus an overall title in 2012 at RTFBC (netted $10,000). This success led to an induction into the NFBC Baseball Hall of Fame. His success in the high stakes market led to a career in providing Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football content. On the football side, he’s competed and won in all different formats – auctions, draft championship, main events, and high-dollar leagues. He won 2nd place overall in the 2014 Most Accurate Salary Cap Expert contest at FantasyPros.As a dual-sport player, it was natural to transition to the daily games where he is a “swing for the fences type of guy.” Childs has appeared in one FanDuel NFL Live Final and one DraftKings NFL Live Final, a season-ending tournament which led to a couple of chances to win over $1,000,000.