NFL DFS: Week 3 Cash Breakdown

NFL CASH BREAKDOWN

CASH Game Strategy Reminders

The first thing to discuss with regards to cash games is contest selection.  What?  Yes, contest selection matters for cash games as well.  Let’s walk through the type of cash game contests that I would focus on for NFL DFS.

Find large Contests.

The 11 man double-ups might seem great as 5/11 will place and you only have to beat 6 people.  Then you really notice the chalk and that two or three “pros” have the exact same lineup minus one player.  It’s not that all of them are sharing lineups, but its that they’ve done this long enough that they have a trusted process that will lead them to the same spot.  Can you beat them?  Yes.  Is it annoying to sweat in an 11 man contest?   Yes.   Go for the larger contest.  Sort by the size of the contest descending and then go from there.

  • 50/50‘s….  Simple math, they’re the best in terms of the pay-line with 50% of the field cashing.  You aren’t pulling back a full 2x but you will want to target the largest 50/50’s you can find.
  • Double-Ups … Same logic here on the size of the contest, find the bigger ones and preferably the ones with SINGLE ENTRY into them.
  • 3-man … Some will enjoy a 5 man contest or even the 10 man leagues, but one alternative to the normal cash games will be the 3 man contests.  Look for ones that arent full close to lock as those generally will give you better variance on the players in them.

BALANCE, BALANCE, BALANCE

  • Remember to focus on trying to get a balanced lineup in cash games.  We take a little less risk with game stacks in cash, but like tournaments we are seeking the best plays each week.  Sometimes with cash we get suckered into playing “must own” plays and when there isn’t obvious value it really makes things risky.  Try to focus on a balanced lineup each week with guys who are going to come through.

IDENTIFY WEAK POSITIONS

  • Each week look at the rankings and determine if the top ranked players are premium players or not.  If you don’t see Gronkowski, Ertz, Kelce, etc. listed as top TE plays then it’s likely a position to pay down for that week.

 

 

 

 

WEEK 3 CASH GAME PLAYS

This week we are splitting up the rankings from the analysis on the players.  In case you haven’t been paying attention We’re number one through the first two weeks with our premium projections.  This is number one ranked across the entire industry.   The rankings below for each position are sorted by overall points, but what you need to identify is the value associated with each player each week.

All prices listed below are DraftKings prices.

QUARTERBACKS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Patrick Mahomes – $7,000
  2. Matt Ryan – $5,700
  3. Drew Brees – $6,400
  4. Jared Goff – $5,900
  5. Jimmy Garoppolo – $6,500
DREW BREES (NO) – The Saints continue to struggle to run the ball effectively as both Mike Gillislee and Jonathan Williams have failed to give them a reliable RB #2 to limit the rushing attempts of Kamara and keep him fresh in his hybrid RB/WR role.  This has meant that Brees has increased his volume back to prior season levels and it should continue that way this week in Atlanta.  The Saints QB should throw it 30+ times this week and given his accuracy and the level of play from Mike Thomas right now he provides a great cash floor at only $6,400 on DK.

JIMMY GAROPPOLO (SF) – The 49ers and Chiefs will be popular in DFS this week as they carry a huge total of 58 and it’s climbing as the week moves along.  Jimmy G may not have all the weapons and current success that Mahomes has, but he has shown ability through two games this year to keep up his hot pace last season and should feast going against a Chiefs secondary that has gotten torched through the air in the first two weeks.

RUNNING BACKS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Todd Gurley – $9,200
  2. Alvin Kamara – $9,500
  3. Christian McCaffrey – $7,800
  4. Dalvin Cook* – $7,100
  5. Melvin Gordon III – $7,400
  6. Tevin Coleman – $6,400
  7. Kareem Hunt – $6,000

Value

  1. Lamar Miller – $5,000
  2. Corey Clement – $4,300
  3. Matt Breida – $5,400
ALVIN KAMARA (NO) – Kamara is once again a feature play at RB this week because of his pass catching ability.  By now you likely know that the Falcons have been at the bottom of the league in recent years in allowing catches to running backs and most of that is by design as they are quick to the ball and force teams to settle underneath.  Unfortunately for Atlanta, they have lost two key pieces on defense and Christian McCaffrey was able to exploit this weakness last week.  Kamara and Thomas will be the Saints main pieces again this week and Kamara should have the better matchup and see good usage again.

TEVIN COLEMAN (ATL) – In the same game, we will see Atlanta have to utilize Coleman more with Freeman remaining out once again this week and at $6,400 he is one touchdown away from easily bringing you back 2.5x in this match-up.   Expect him to score and get over 100 yards total this week.

KAREEM HUNT (KC) – Don’t over look Hunt either.  The 49ers line-backers are not their strength right now and Hunt is the home running back for a favorite in the highest OU on the board.  In cash games you would likely be asking for trouble to fade this game completely.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Odell Beckham Jr – $8,200
  2. Michael Thomas – $8,900
  3. DeAndre Hopkins – $8,300
  4. Julio Jones – $7.900
  5. Tyreek Hill – $8,500

Mid Range

  1. Nelson Agholor – $6,100
  2. Amari Cooper  – $6,600
  3. Robert Woods – $5,100

Value

  1. Cooer Kupp – $4,900
  2. Dante Pettis – $4,300
  3. Mohammed Sanu – $3,800
  4. Josh Doctson – $3,700
ODELL BECKHAM JR (NYG) – This is someone we are bullish on this week at ScoutFantasy and we are putting the rankings to the test as OBJ is our #1 projected WR on the Main slate.  He will be a low owned play in cash and tournament games this week so you may feel like it’s a little risk going with him over Thomas and Hill and certainly roster construction plays into our decision making in cash games quite a bit, but if you are someone who prefers to play a single lineup with high upside, then consider OBJ against the Texans weak secondary.

MICHAEL THOMAS (NO) – The matchup isn’t the best one he has had all year as Atlanta will play physical man coverage on the outside against Thomas, but he has been lined up in the slot more and Drew Brees continues to look his way.  The smarter play in cash is to lock Brees with Kamara as there is a correlation there as well, but if you are bullish on this game then you can ride Thomas who is Mr. Steady at getting 80+ yards and 7+ catches each week.

ROBERT WOODS (LAR) – The Chargers and Rams will square off in their hometown of LA (still feels weird) this week and the Rams high flying offense should be able to move the ball on the Chargers much like the Chiefs did two weeks ago.  Woods at home has been a steady target for Goff and saw 9 targets for 81 yards last week in a blowout win over the Cardinals and was just missed on a wide open TD by Goff as well.  For $5,100 he remains underpriced and has more TD upside than Cooper Kupp who is also in play.

DANTE PETTIS (SF) – Pettis was a chalky value play last week with Goodwin being out for the 49ers and should be once again this week.  A classic case of a value player not shooting the moon like folks always hope for but still being put into a good position.  Pettis was in on 56 of the 49ers 64 snaps last week and they should see equal that if not more in a shootout with the Chiefs this week.  He’s underpriced still and is a deep threat target to potentially have a big game — if Goodwin sits out.

Goodwin practiced on Wednesday, so monitor his status related to Pettis.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Zach Ertz – $6,800
  2. Jimmy Graham – $4,900
  3. Travis Kelce – $6,700
  4. Jared Cook – $4,000
  5. George Kittle – $4,500
  6. Ben Watson – $3,100
JIMMY GRAHAM (GB) – Graham seeing 8 targets against the Packers and 6 catches last week was not a shock to our Chris Rose as projected on the weekly DFS podcast that the Vikings would continue to struggle vs the TE.  Another team who is a sneaky funnel to the TE is Washington and lets not overlook Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense being able to go into Washington and put up 20+ points on the Redskins.  Graham remains a red zone target and given his savings over Ertz — who should be in a blowout is someone to consider at TE this week.

DEFENSES

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Baltimore Ravens
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars
  3. Minnesota Vikings
  4. Chicago Bears
MINNESOTA VIKINGS – The Vikings are huge home favorites against a Bills offense that has very little difference makers on offense.  They’re the chalk play this week.