NFL DFS: Week 4 Secret Stars

The Secret Stars weekly article isn't suggesting the lineup you should use this week; rather its purpose is to identify players who represent extreme value at their current salaries for the week. Selecting these players will give you an opportunity to use such players as Tom Brady and Kareem Hunt in your lineups. Here are our Secret Stars for Week 4 (DraftKings pricing):

QB Carson Palmer $6,100 vs. SF – He turned a lot of people off with a horrible day against the woeful Colts in Week 2, but Palmer saved his line and the result with a beautiful bomb to J.J. Nelson. Fellow seam-stretcher John Brown joined Nelson with a key TD on MNF, and those complimentary weapons will be huge for the Cardinals as they try to move on without David Johnson for half the season. With more on his plate, Palmer is going to have to take chances and push the ball downfield, which should lead to success at home against a 49ers defense that ranks 31st in DVOA defense so far this season.

QB Trevor Siemian $5,200 vs. OAK – It seems it was a little early to crown Siemian as one of the brightest rising QBs in the league, as he struggled along with the rest of the Broncos offense at The Ralph in Buffalo. This Sunday he returns home where he’ll face a Raiders defense that looked like it had never watched a single snap of film on the Redskins offense while routinely giving up huge plays in an embarrassing road loss Sunday night. Opposing QBs are posting the third-highest passer rating (112) against Oakland and Siemian’s averaging 261.2 passing YPG with 11 TDs over his last five home games.

RB Javorius Allen $4,700 vs. PIT – There might be some DFSers willing to take a chance on Alex Collins based on the RB usage in last Sunday’s London disaster, but you can’t read too much into snap counts during a massive blowout. Allen should remain the starter and see a much heavier workload after Terrence West fumbled and continued to look limited by a soft tissue injury. The Steelers have given up an above average 122.7 RuYPG, and four rushing TDs through three games and these rivalry contests take on a physical nature that can benefit RBs.

RB Jacquizz Rodgers $4,400 vs. NYG – The Bucs fell way behind early and that effectively took Rodgers out of the game in Week 3. Now he’ll have one more chance to carry the load with Doug Martin suspended, and he could see a much more positive game script with the Bucs (-3) favored at home. The G-Men went from playing stout run defense to giving up the most RuYPG (153.3) through three weeks this season, and the inability of the Giants offense has a lot to do with that. If you’re banking on a bounce-back effort from a rising Tampa Bay squad, bank on Rodgers as a cheap option.

WR DeAndre Hopkins $6,400 vs. TEN – One thing is for certain with DeShaun Watson at the helm, Hopkins will be targeted frequently, as he’s seen 37 targets and caught seven balls in each of his three appearances this year. This Sunday Hopkins will square off against a Titans team that ranks 24th in DVOA pass defense and doesn’t have a shutdown CB capable of dealing with a versatile route runner and physical presence. Tennessee is giving up the fifth-most FPPG to opposing WRs so far this season, and Hopkins is due for success in the red zone.

WR Danny Amendola $4,900 vs. CAR – He was rather quiet until Tom Brady hit Amendola for a 20-yard gain to set up the game-winning strike to Brandin Cooks last Sunday. While he was only a part-time player last week, Amendola should see an increased workload for a Pats offense that’s desperately in need of more consistent receiving options. The Panthers are excellent on the outside and have a great slot CB in Captain Munnerlyn, but Amendola is too quick for the hulking Munnerlyn, and he could pay off by getting open for Brady in the red zone this Sunday.

TE Ed Dickson $2,800 @ NE – In his first start for Greg Olsen, Dickson underwhelmed along with everyone in the Panthers offense thanks to Cam Newton’s accuracy issues. He remains a viable option in PPR formats, especially ahead of a likely comeback attempt at Foxboro. The Patriots have looked completely inept while giving up the most passing YPG (330.7) and PPG (31.7) through three games this year and they’re weakest at linebacker with defensive captain Dont’a Hightower still questionable to play this Sunday.

FLEX Andre Ellington $3,800 vs. SF – The Cardinals could hardly get anything going on the ground while watching a brief lead evaporate to the Cowboys last Monday night. In their collapse, it became evident that Ellington was a far more versatile back than veteran Chris Johnson, as he turned ten touches into 81 yards while CJ plodded his way to 17 yards on 12 carries. Head coach Bruce Arians said that Johnson would retain his role as lead back, but Ellington is certain to mix in and prove more valuable in PPR formats, especially if the Cardinals wind up in a close contest with a 49ers team that has new life under HC Kyle Shanahan.

D/ST DAL $2,500 vs. LAR – While they’ve beaten up on some poor competition, the Rams are still the Rams. Jared Goff remains turnover prone, Todd Gurley is posting a weak 3.8 YPC despite feasting on that poor schedule, and both Sammy Watkins and Tavon Austin are in the concussion protocol. The Cowboys discovered a fierce pass rush led by DeMarcus Lawrence on Monday night and have Sean Lee to shadow Gurley and potentially shut down the run game. Plus, they’re home favorites and have the NFL’s best running game to chew up clock and make it easier to stay fresh.

Here's our lineup this week:

  • QB Trevor Siemian $5,200 vs. OAK
  • RB Kareem Hunt $8,500 vs. WAS
  • RB Leonard Fournette $6,700 @ NYJ
  • WR Stefon Diggs $7,100 vs. DET
  • WR Larry Fitzgerald $6,100 vs. SF
  • WR DeAndre Hopkins $6,400 vs. TEN
  • TE Ed Dickson $2,800 @ NE
  • FLEX Javorius Allen $4,700 vs. PIT
  • DST Cowboys $2,500 vs. LAR
Matt De Lima
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