NFL DFS: Week 7 Cash Breakdown

NFL CASH BREAKDOWN

CASH Game Strategy Reminders

The first thing to discuss with regards to cash games is contest selection.  What?  Yes, contest selection matters for cash games as well.  Let’s walk through the type of cash game contests that I would focus on for NFL DFS.

Find large Contests.

The 11 man double-ups might seem great as 5/11 will place and you only have to beat 6 people.  Then you really notice the chalk and that two or three “pros” have the exact same lineup minus one player.  It’s not that all of them are sharing lineups, but its that they’ve done this long enough that they have a trusted process that will lead them to the same spot.  Can you beat them?  Yes.  Is it annoying to sweat in an 11 man contest?   Yes.   Go for the larger contest.  Sort by the size of the contest descending and then go from there.

  • 50/50‘s….  Simple math, they’re the best in terms of the pay-line with 50% of the field cashing.  You aren’t pulling back a full 2x but you will want to target the largest 50/50’s you can find.
  • Double-Ups … Same logic here on the size of the contest, find the bigger ones and preferably the ones with SINGLE ENTRY into them.
  • 3-man … Some will enjoy a 5 man contest or even the 10 man leagues, but one alternative to the normal cash games will be the 3 man contests.  Look for ones that arent full close to lock as those generally will give you better variance on the players in them.

BALANCE, BALANCE, BALANCE

  • Remember to focus on trying to get a balanced lineup in cash games.  We take a little less risk with game stacks in cash, but like tournaments we are seeking the best plays each week.  Sometimes with cash we get suckered into playing “must own” plays and when there isn’t obvious value it really makes things risky.  Try to focus on a balanced lineup each week with guys who are going to come through.

IDENTIFY WEAK POSITIONS

  • Each week look at the rankings and determine if the top ranked players are premium players or not.  For example, if you don’t see Gronkowski, Ertz, Kelce, etc. listed as top TE plays then it’s likely a position to pay down for that week.

 

 

WEEK 7 CASH GAME PLAYS

Each week we are going to post these CASH game plays early in the week.  It’s often a good indicator of the early week rankings but things will change with late week injuries or late scratches.  Monitor the Optimizer and Scout Rankings for updates as the week moves on.

All prices listed below are FanDuel prices.

 

QUARTERBACKS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Baker Mayfield – $7,100
  2. Carson Wentz – $7,600
  3. CJ Beathard – $6,400
  4. Joe Flacco – $7,500
Carson Wentz (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,600): Wentz looks ready to deliver an impact game in TDs with plenty of supporting yards. Over his last three starts, Carson passed for 937 combined yards with seven TDs while gaining over 20 yards on 12 plays. Two QBs passed for 300 yards against the Panthers in the last three games while showing risk vs. WRs (15/218/1 and 17/285/1) and TEs (9/109 and 8/84/1) in two of those games over this span. Overall, Carolina allows 7.6 yards per pass attempt with QBs passing for two TDs or more in their last four games. The Week 7 Million starts with Carson behind the steering wheel.

Baker Mayfield (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,100): Mayfield averaged 44.3 pass attempts over his last three games, but his completion rate (52.7) has weak over this span. His number two WR (Antonio Callaway) has 37.5 catch rate with weaker success over his last three games (33 percent). Baker has four TDs and five Ints over his last three starts while averaging 292 pass yards per game. Tampa allowed over 300 yards passing in every game this year with QBs tossing 16 TDs. Of all the teams the Bucs have faced, the Browns may have the lowest upside in receiving talent. Mayfield comes into Week 7 with an ankle issue, but he’s expected to play. There are five weeks of data that suggests that Baker should be in play in this high scoring matchup.


RUNNING BACKS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Todd Gurley – $10,200
  2. Ezekiel Elliott – $8,400
  3. Alvin Kamara – $8,200
  4. LeSean McCoy – $6,200
  5. Kerryon Johnson – $6,500
  6. Jordan Howard – $6,200
Todd Gurley (DK – $9,800/FD – $10,200): After six weeks of action in the NFL, Gurley is on pace to score 472 Fantasy points in PPR leagues (29.50 FPPG). As great as he’s been, he only holds a small edge (3.32 Fantasy points per game) over Alvin Kamara (28.60), Melvin Gordon (27.08), and Saquon Barkley (26.18). Todd has 11 TDs while averaging 145 combined yards and 3.5 catches per game. On the year, Gurley receives 25 touches per game or 1.18 Fantasy points per touch. Last year the Rams gave him 22.9 touches per game. In his only game against the 49ers on the road in 2017, Todd gained 149 combined yards with three TDs and five catches. San Fran struggles to defend the Chargers’ RBs at home (215 combined yards with nine catches and two TDs), which points to another explosive outing for Gurley. Overall, the 49ers are 23rd in the NFL defending RBs (825 combined yards with seven TDs and 40 catches). Look for Gurley to be active in the passing game in Week 7 with another 30+ Fantasy game on the horizon.

Ezekiel Elliott (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,400): After six games, Elliott is the sixth highest scoring RB in PPR leagues (20.20 FPPG). The Cowboys have given him 23.3 touches per game, which led to 752 combined yards, four TDs, and 23 catches. His biggest step down in value from the top tier RBs in 2018 is the scoring ability by the Cowboys. This season Dallas has 11 TDs on 66 possessions compared to 21 TDs in 56 chances for New Orleans and 23 TDs in 62 tries by the Rams. Last season in Washington, Elliott had 154 combined yards with two TDs and one catch. The Redskins are about league average against RBs (672 combined yards with four TDs and 34 catches) with their worst game coming against the Saints (112 combined yards with three TDs and five catches). For the record, Ezekiel averages 86.6 Fantasy points per touch. A neutral matchup with a good recent history vs. Washington.

Kerryon Johnson (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,500): Over the last three games, Johnson gained 251 combined yards with one TD and five catches while receiving 14 touches per game. Kerryon averages 5.7 yards per carry, which should invite more playing time. Over his last four games, the Lions had Johnson on the field for 44.2 percent of their plays. Detroit continues to rotate in three RBs with Theo Riddick stealing most of the pass-catching chances and LeGarrette Blount being the goal line thief at least in the last game. Riddick came out of the bye with an injury, which may be a good sign for Johnson in this matchup. The Dolphins allow the fourth-most Fantasy points to RBs (1,043 combined yards with seven TDs and 42 catches). Hopefully, the Lions saw the light over the last two weeks pointing a nice gain in value for Kerryon this week. If Riddick can’t go, Johnson is a live value play at this level.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
Top:

  1. Jarvis Landry – $6,500
  2. Adam Thielen – $8,700
  3. Stefon Diggs – $7,600
  4. Robert Woods – $7,700

Mid Range:

  1. Keelan Cole – $5,500
  2. Nelson Agholor – $6,000
  3. Marquise Goodwin – $5,500
  4. Willie Snead – $5,400

Value

  1. Jermaine Kerase – $5,000
Stefon Diggs (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,600): So far this season, Diggs has one impact game (9/128/2), two good games (11/123 and 10/91), one steady game (3/43/1), and two poor showings (4/17 and 3/33). He remains on pace to set career highs in catches (107), yards (1,160), and targets (157). His last TD came in Week 2. The Jets played the last two games without their top CB Trumaine Johnson. If he’s out again this week, Diggs will have an even bigger edge in this matchup. New York has to be game planning to slow down Adam Thielen, which could be a big win for Stefon in this matchup. Top player who is due to score. Playing a WR2 behind an elite WR tends to be a winning plan in multiple weeks in the daily games.

Jarvis Landry (DK – $7,300/FD – $6,500): Landry continues to have a great opportunity in targets (11.2 per game) with two good games (7/106 and 8/103). Over his last three games, Baker Mayfield failed to get Jarvis rolling (4/34/1, 5/69, and 2/11 on 31 targets). The Bucs struggled in four games vs. WRs (NO – 23/268/1, PIT – 20/200/2, CHI – 10/147/4, and ATL – 19/278/1) leading to the 31st ranking in WR defense. CB M.J. Stewart will allow plenty of TDs with high completion rate, which gives Landry a chance at an impact game. Excellent value at Fanduel while still being in play for me at DraftKIngs. Possible double-digit catches with over 100 yards and at least one TD.

Keelan Cole (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,500): Cole now has four straight short games (5/40, 2/15, 4/70, and 4/41) after his only impact outing (7/116/1). On the year, Keelan averages 6.5 targets per game. Last year he had a great game at home vs. the Texans (7/186/1 on nine targets). Johnathan Joseph is an older CB who will give up big plays. I expect Cole to have an impact game with the Jaguars needing a win in a big way. Excellent value in Week 7.

Nelson Agholor (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,000): In three of his last four games, Agholor has five targets or fewer. His only game of value came in Week 2 (8/88/1). The Eagles gave him double-digit targets in three of his six games, but two of them came when Alshon Jeffery wasn’t in the starting up. His yards per catch (9.5) remains behind his 2017 season (12.4). CB Caption Munnerlyn won’t pose a big problem, but he remains the third option in the passing game for the Eagles. Reasonable price and Carson Wentz is one of the top QB options this week in the daily games.

 

 

TIGHT ENDS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. David Njoku – $5,700
  2. Kyle Rudolph – $5,900
  3. Zach Ertz – $7,500
  4. George Kittle – $6,400
  5. Ben Watson – $5,200
David Njoku (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,700): Njuko has been at least relevant in the season-long games over his last three starts (5/52, 6/69, and 7/55/1) with Baker Mayfield behind center. David has seven targets or more in five of his six games with 29 chances over his last three starts. He’s on pace for 72 catches for 653 yards and three TDs on 120 targets. The Bucs are last in the NFL vs. the TE position (36/486/3 on 44 targets) with three teams scoring over 20 Fantasy points from the TE position (PHI – 15/151, PIT – 5/119/1, and ATL – 9/71/1). Tampa allowed a TD to the TE in their last three games. Excellent upside gamble at this level.

Zach Ertz (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,500): Ertz failed to get double-digit targets last week for the first time this season, but he did score a TD for the second straight game. Zach averages eight catches for 80 and just over 11 targets per game or 18 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. He ranks 1st at TE, 11th at WR, and 10th at RB in scoring average in PPR leagues with two impact games (10/112 and 10/110/1). The Panthers allowed the sixth-most Fantasy points to TEs (28/297/2 on 38 targets) with two teams having nice games at TE (CIN – 9/109 and WAS – 8/84/1). Great opportunity with a favorable matchup should lead to another 20+ point game while trending forward in TDs.

 

DEFENSES

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Jaguars – $4,400
  2. Colts – $4,100
  3. Redskins – $3,500
  4. Browns – $3,200
Jaguars – The Jags draw the Texans who have let DeShaun Watson get hit 71 times this year.  This is a great floor game for the Jags D to bounce back after getting torched in Dallas last week.

 

About Steve Renner 630 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.