NFL DFS: Week 9 Cash Breakdown

NFL CASH BREAKDOWN

CASH Game Strategy Reminders

The first thing to discuss with regards to cash games is contest selection.  What?  Yes, contest selection matters for cash games as well.  Let’s walk through the type of cash game contests that I would focus on for NFL DFS.

Find large Contests.

The 11 man double-ups might seem great as 5/11 will place and you only have to beat 6 people.  Then you really notice the chalk and that two or three “pros” have the exact same lineup minus one player.  It’s not that all of them are sharing lineups, but its that they’ve done this long enough that they have a trusted process that will lead them to the same spot.  Can you beat them?  Yes.  Is it annoying to sweat in an 11 man contest?   Yes.   Go for the larger contest.  Sort by the size of the contest descending and then go from there.

  • 50/50‘s….  Simple math, they’re the best in terms of the pay-line with 50% of the field cashing.  You aren’t pulling back a full 2x but you will want to target the largest 50/50’s you can find.
  • Double-Ups … Same logic here on the size of the contest, find the bigger ones and preferably the ones with SINGLE ENTRY into them.
  • 3-man … Some will enjoy a 5 man contest or even the 10 man leagues, but one alternative to the normal cash games will be the 3 man contests.  Look for ones that arent full close to lock as those generally will give you better variance on the players in them.

BALANCE, BALANCE, BALANCE

  • Remember to focus on trying to get a balanced lineup in cash games.  We take a little less risk with game stacks in cash, but like tournaments we are seeking the best plays each week.  Sometimes with cash we get suckered into playing “must own” plays and when there isn’t obvious value it really makes things risky.  Try to focus on a balanced lineup each week with guys who are going to come through.

IDENTIFY WEAK POSITIONS

  • Each week look at the rankings and determine if the top ranked players are premium players or not.  For example, if you don’t see Gronkowski, Ertz, Kelce, etc. listed as top TE plays then it’s likely a position to pay down for that week.

 

 

ORIGINAL Cash game Breakdown is published on Friday’s.

Updates as of Sunday Morning are listed in RED

 

WEEK 9 CASH GAME PLAYS

Each week we are going to post these CASH game plays early in the week.  It’s often a good indicator of the early week rankings but things will change with late week injuries or late scratches.  Monitor the Optimizer and Scout Rankings for updates as the week moves on.

All prices listed below are DraftKings prices and players in BOLD on the left are who we project to be the highest owned players in cash games (double check close to Sunday lock for accuracy)

QUARTERBACKS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Cam Newton – $6,600
  2. Jared Goff – $6,000
  3. Ryan Fitzpatrick – $5,500
  4. Drew Brees – $6,100
We may have the highest ownership on any one Quarterback this week as Cam Newton, who is the normal cash chalk QB, gets to face the Tampa Bay “2x” defense where everyone seemingly starts their day with 2x value against them every week.

Cam Newton (DK – $6,600/FD – $8,600): Newton doesn’t have the sexiness of the next generation QBs, but he still ranks 3rd in QB scoring after eight weeks. Cam has at least two passing TDs in six straight games while adding nice value in most weeks in the run game (62/309/4). He’s on pace for 39 combined TDs with 4,468 combined yards. Last week we saw the emergence of D.J. Moore (5/90 with two runs for 39 yards plus Curtis Samuel is getting closer to being a relevant receiving option. The Bucs continue to rank last in the NFL in Fantasy points allowed to QBs. They allow 8.8 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 20 passing TDs and gaining over 300 yards in five games. Great matchup with Newton having the tools to deliver a special game.

Drew Brees (DK – $6,100/FD – $8,400): Brees settled into his 2017 path in three of his last four road starts (217/0, 212/2, and 120/1) and the Saints won each game. Drew has three special games at home (439/3, 396/3, and 363/3). New Orleans hasn’t run the ball as well as last year (3.9 yards per rush), but they do have 12 rushing TDs with RBs doing plenty of damage in the passing game (59/472/3). Brees still lacks secondary WRs to support impact TDs in the red zone. The Rams are 5th in the NFL against QBs with one impact game (MIN – 422/3). LA will beat up on weaker offenses with their pass rush, but an experienced QB will use that aggressiveness to his advantage. This game is going to be wide open with plenty of scoring, but the Saints will score rushing TDs. Brees tends to have a high floor at home, and this matchup sets the stage for an even higher ceiling. Tough sitting on the sidelines with no piece of this game.

Jared Goff (DK – $6,000/FD – $8,400): Goff came off two short games (201/0 and 202/2) with Todd Gurley carrying the way in the Rams’ offense. After a slow start in the first half vs. the Packers, Jared finished with 295 yards and three TDs. Goff has 12 TDs in his four home starts compared to five TDs on the road in four games. New Orleans allows the 3rd most Fantasy points to QBs with two QBs delivering impact games (TB – 417/4 and ATL – 374/5). The Saints allow 8.7 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 15 TDs. New Orleans plays well vs. the run (3.2 yards per rush), which points to Goff leading the show this week with his right arm. With Cooper Kupp back this week, LA has all their tools to produce an impact game. Live option in Week 9.

Value Option:  Ryan Fitzpatrick


RUNNING BACKS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Todd Gurley – $9,500
  2. Kareem Hunt – $7,700
  3. Christian McCaffrey – $7,800
  4. Alvin Kamara – $7,300

MID RANGE:

  1. Adrian Peterson – $6,000

VALUE:

  1. Nick Chubb – $4,500
  2. Alex Collins – $4,600
  3. Isaiah Crowell – $4,200
Todd Gurley see’s his price go DOWN on DraftKings in a game where the total is 60 and Kareem Hunt saw his price go UP going on the road into Cleveland.  How?  Why?  It makes no sense for one to go up and the other to go down.  But here we are.   Gurley on FD is someone we can fade just because of his huge 11k price and we’re really needing some other value to open up this week, but on DraftKings he should be the first player put into your cash game lineups.

Todd Gurley (DK – $9,500/FD – $11,200): Gurley has four straight games with over 30 Fantasy points in PPR leagues while leaving a TD on the table last week. Todd has been a rock-solid foundation RB in the season long and daily games every week this year. He’s now on pace for 2,302 combined yards with 30 TDs and 62 catches while averaging 25 touches per game. The Saints rank 6th in the NFL defending RBs with no team scoring over 27 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. New Orleans has been surprisingly good against the run (3.2 yards per rush), but RBs do have six TDs. The best RB that the Saints faced in 2018 is Saquon Barkley who finished with 100 combined yards with a TD and six catches. New Orleans will be tested in all areas on defense, and the Rams will win on many plays leading to a high scoring game. Sometimes it’s more about the TD chances than that matchup. Gurley should score multiple TDs this week with plenty of chances in the passing game.

Christian McCaffrey (DK – $7,800/FD – $7,900): After eight weeks, McCaffrey is the 8th highest scoring RB in PPR leagues, but he never seems to dazzle in all areas in any game. Christian has fewer than 100 combined yards in four straight games despite being on the field for 252 of 254 plays run by the Panthers. Last week he did score two TDs to help him post his third game with over 20 Fantasy points. McCaffrey is on pace for 1,446 combined yards with 88 catches and six TDs. Tampa allowed over 30 Fantasy points to RBs in four of their seven games while showing more failure against the run in three of their last four games (31/139, 23/119/1, and 27/138/2). The Bucs already have two disaster games vs. RBs in the passing game (NO – 9/112/1 and CHI – 7/121/1). The best matchup of the year for him and he should be pair with Cam Newton this week.

Adrian Peterson (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,500): With Chris Thompson hurt over the last three games, Peterson gained 360 combined yards with one TD and two catches. His day last week (26/149/1) was set up a 64-yard TD. Over his last three games, Adrian averaged 26.3 touches. The Falcons allow the second-most Fantasy points to RBs with every team scoring over 25.0 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. Atlanta allowed 4.8 yards per rush with RBs scoring seven rushing TDs. The stats suggest Peterson is a strong play this week with much more upside if the Redskins use him more in the passing game where the Falcons have more downside (62/476/2 on 76 targets). Volume back with scoring upside as well.

With Chris Thompson out AP should see a safe volume for cash games this week.  His price is very attractive which makes him a chalky cash game option this week.

Mark Ingram (DK – $5,000/FD – $7,400): Over three games, Ingram gained 207 yards with two TDs and seven catches while being receiving 16 touches per game. Mark’s gaining only 3.6 yards per rush while being on the field for 50 percent of the plays run by the Saints. Ingram has value on all three downs, but the key to his upside is scoring TDs.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
Top:

  1. Michael Thomas – $7,600
  2. DeAndre Hopkins – $8,300
  3. Adam Thielen – $8,900
  4. Julio Jones – $7,900
  5. Keenan Allen – $7,300

Mid Range:

  1. Cooper Kupp – $6,000
  2. Jarvis Landry – $6,500
  3. Devin Funchess – $5,600
  4. Kenny Golladay – $5,500

Value

  1. Sammy Watkins – $4900
  2. Paul Richardson Jr – $3,800
  3. Tre’Quan Smith – $4,200
  4. Courtland Sutton – $3,900
There are some value plays at WR this week due to trades with Courtland Sutton and Kenny Golladay seeing a little boost with the trades of DeMaryius Thomas and Golden Tate from their respective teams.  You’ll likely want a piece of action in the NO-LAR projected shootout and Michael Thomas ranks as our #1 overall WR this week — but do not ignore the value that comes with Tre’Quan Smith at $4200 in the Saints passing attack.

Adam Thielen (DK – $8,900/FD – $8,900): Last week Thielen had a season-low seven targets, but he was able to catch all of his chances for 103 yards while extending his scoring streak to five games. Adam even added a 15-yard run. He has over 100 yards receiving in games with a huge step up in opportunity this year (12 targets per game). Thielen is on pace for 148 passes for 1,950 yards and 12 TDs. Last year he had 13 catches for 148 yards on 19 targets in two games against the Lions. Detroit has the seventh best defense vs. WRs (68/1027/9 on 98 targets) with only one WR gaining over 100 yards (Davante Adams – 9/140/1). CB Nevin Lawson isn’t a great corner, but he has played well so far in 2018. Star player who is on a great run.

Stefon Diggs being out only helps Thielen even more.

Michael Thomas (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,600): Thomas gave away his big WR lead in Fantasy points over his last four games (4/47, 4/74, 7/69/1, and 5/81) while averaging only six targets per game over this stretch. Michael was the best WR in the game over the first three weeks (38/398/3 on 40 targets). His stats and opportunity should rebound over the next month with three of the games at home. The Rams are 13th against WRs (84/1248/11 on 131 targets) with three teams having success (MIN – 25/338/3, DEN – 13/230/2, and GB – 14/263/1). LA will try to use CB Marcus Peters against him who gives up big plays and TDs while trying to cheat on defense by looking in the backfield. Thomas should score this week with a nice rebound in targets. An excellent upside in this high scoring game.

Cooper Kupp (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,800): The Rams expect to have Kupp back in the starting lineup this week after missing the last two games with a knee injury. Over his first four and a half games, Cooper has 30 catches for 438 yards and five TDs on 41 targets. He was on pace for 96 catches for 1,402 yards and 16 TDs. This week Kupp will be matched up with CB P.J. Williams who has disaster risk in catch rate, big plays, and TDs. An excellent matchup with impact upside.

Devin Funchess (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,400): Funchess has fewer than 80 yards receiving in each game with three TDs while averaging 7.1 targets per game. Devin doesn’t have a game with over 20 Fantasy points in 2018. The Bucs allow the second-most Fantasy points to WRs (115/1379/13 on 150 targets). Five WRs have over 100 yards receiving against Tampa (Michael Thomas – 16/180/1, Taylor Gabriel – 7/104/2, Julio Jones – 10/143, and Tyler Boyd – 9/138/1). Tampa has risk in all areas in pass coverage. Like his upside in this game, but I can’t trust his explosiveness. Cam Newton is the top QB this week meaning Devin may be along for the ride.

Courtland Sutton (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,500): Sutton is going to be an attractive low-end WR this week after being awarded the WR2 job for the Broncos after Demaryius Thomas was traded to the Texans. Over eight games as the WR3 for Denver, Courtland caught only 17 of his 37 targets for 324 yards and two TDs. Big play WR with scoring ability, but the Broncos need to get him into more favorable situations to catch the ball. Not quite a lock at this level for the daily games.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Travis Kelce – $6,600
  2. Kyle Rudolph – $3,600
  3. Greg Olsen – $4,700
  4. David Njoku – $4,600
  5. Austin Hooper – $3,800
  6. OJ Howard – $4,300
The TE pricing on FanDuel is tough this week as alot of the mid range guys are priced up to the point where you just wanna take Olsen or Kelce for higher priced security or consider a punt option.  Here’s the top overall cash game plays this week at TE, which is not a dominant spot this week.

OJ Howard … With Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, OJ Howard has seen an increase in his targets and should be a high volume target this week against the Panthers.  The last three weeks teams have attacked Carolina with TE’s but we should caution that the three teams (Washington, Philadelphia and Baltimore) are three of the higher TE usage teams in the league.  That said, expect the Bucs to be trailing here and Howard becomes a good cash game floor option.

Also consider David Njoku for only 5200 on FanDuel

DEFENSES

Scout RankingsPicks of the week
  1. Bears – $4,100
  2. Panthers – $3,200
  3. Vikings – $2,900
  4. Texans – $3,000
  5. Broncos – $2,300
Even on the road the Chicago Bears against Nathan Peterman and the Bills putrid offense is a tempting play in all cash games this week.  There’s good value though with the Broncos at $2300 who at home against the Texans could rack up a decent volume of sacks this week.

Bears — Mack is back and Peterman is starting for Buffalo.  High upside play here in cash.

Ravens — The Ravens D has struggled the last two weeks but at home for 3500 on FD this week they offer a nice salary pivot down off the higher priced Bears at 5400.

 

About Steve Renner 631 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.