NFL Week 10 DFS Recap

NFL DFS RECAP

Accountability and Credibility go hand and hand and here at Scout we need to recap the recommendations each week so that not only can we properly assess and evaluate the results of a week but also help you identify going forward where the recommendations are coming from and how to best use the winners on a week to week basis.

QUARTERBACKS

Top Recommended Plays:   Tom Brady, Mitchell Trubisky and Philip Rivers

Mitchell Trubisky (4th and GOAL) ended up stealing the show at Quarterback yesterday finishing as QB1 overall for the day going 23-30 for 355 yards 3 TD and 1 rush TD (which he seems to do every week at home) against the Lions.  Trubisky was documented not only on the 4th and AMBUSH podcast by Chris Rose but was listed as his top overall QB of the week.

“Trubisky – He’s been great at home, and gets a Detroit defense that’s giving up over 350 yards per game. Detroit should be able to score and keep this game close, giving Mitch plenty of opportunities to throw this week. He gets Robinson back as well this week, so he has healthy set of skill guys. ” — 4th & GOAL

Top Overall Finishers:  Trubisky (39), Brees (28.9), Wilson (27.24), Bortles (24.6), Ryan (24.5)

Of the top five overall picks only two (Trubisky and Brees) came from winning Quarterbacks and only Mitchell was the home Quarterback in these spots.  Proving that with Quarterbacks it often pays to have a QB who is going to have to play from behind to amass yardage stats as best possible and unless a QB is going to get a rushing TD like Brees and Trubisky both did then they’re likely going to have a hard path to getting stats via touchdowns since they only get 4 points per passing TD.

The difference between the 4th overall QB (Bortles) and the 14th overall QB (Barkley) was only 7 points.  That 7 point difference is equal to a 10 yard rushing touchdown from RB.  While we want to find the #1 overall QB, what we really need to remember is that the majority of the Quarterbacks are going to finish within the same relative range each week and thus the QB spot is not one to overthink many weeks.

Bad Recommendations:  Alex Smith & Tom Brady (Both in the AMBUSH)

It was not a good QB week for me in the AMBUSH article at QB as both Brady and Alex Smith failed to have big days.  With Smith I was looking for a 2nd or 3rd TD but the offense was set back 10 years between Washington and Tampa.  There’s no explaining the Brady performance as he was able to get 40 passing attempts but only 254 passing yards and zero TD last week against a Titans defense coming off a short week.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Top Recommendations:   David Johnson, Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon

As bad as The AMBUSH was at Quarterback this week, we outlined a few solid Running Back options — especially in the mid range outlining David Johnson’s matchup against the Chiefs on the 4th and AMBUSH podcast and jumping on Mark Ingram and Aaron Jones as plays in the top overall RB recommendations this week.  One big miss was going Duke Johnson over Nick Chubb in the Browns ground game, but the Mark Ingram bounce back pick ended up being one of the better plays on the board

“MARK INGRAM … Yes, I am going RIGHT back to my boy Ingram this week, on the road he will be the lead back this week with Kamara being the PPR target that we know and love, but I don’t see the TD upside for either guy this week to feel that they are must plays.” — The AMBUSH

Top Overall Finishers:   Chubb (38.9), Da.Johnson (37.3), Jones (35.2), Ingram (28.2), Gurley (28)

Paying up for Todd Gurley continued to be a safe way to get solid points into your lineup but we saw three RB dominate in match-ups that were ideal for the ground game with Ingram, Jones and Chubb all finishing at the top and being the best value plays on the board.  Ingram and Jones combined cost only $100 more than Gurley himself on DraftKings this week and both outscored Gurley.  In the case of Mark Ingram he did it without a rushing TD as he got that screen pass TD that I predicted a week ago.

Bad Recommendations:  James White

It was just a terrible day all around for most of the Patriots as the entire ground game was whiped out as well with the team trailing most of the game but Sony Michel being active didn’t help here either.

 

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Top Recommendations:   Allen Robinson II, Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay

Wide Receiver is always very spread out but two things that we like to encourage is correlating with your QB in tournaments and Allen Robinson II came through big time with Trubisky yesterday while Mike Thomas and Davante Adams both dominated with 2 TD each and in the case of Adams he came in at very low ownership.  Neither player had huge yardage games but getting in the box twice is worth their price any week.

Top Overall Finishers:   Hill (35.7), Robinson II (34.3), Cooks (29.9), Davis (28.5), Thomas (27)

Bad Recommendations:   Mike Evans

TIGHT ENDS

It’s hard to say that anyone dominated Tight End yesterday outside of Eric Ebron and Austin Hooper.  Both went over 20 total points and in the case of Ebron he had 3 total targets converted into 28 fantasy points.  Ebron did benefit greatly from a 2 yard rushing TD as well, and the tilt got even higher when Mo Alie-Cox got a receiving TD as well and Jack Doyle wasn’t getting in on the endzone action for the Colts yesterday.  Hooper was the main beneficiary of Matt Ryan airing the ball out a ton yesterday and went overlooked int he Falcons passing attack by many.

Top Recommendations:   None

Top Overall Finishers:   Ebron (28.1), Hooper (21.6), Smith (13.5)

Bad Recommendations:   None

When there are only 7 total TE touchdowns and they came from Ebron, Hooper, Jonnu Smith, Tyler Higbee, Alie-Cox, Everett and Vannett it’s not a scenario where picking a TE who didn’t score killed you in many cases.  The combined ownership on everyone not named Ebron was drastically low in every format yesterday.  Continue to seek out a TE who has that touchdown upside in tournaments and in cash look for the guys who are going to get consistent volume like Kelce (46 yards on 7 targets), Trey Burton (40 yards on 4 targets) and Jared Cook (52 yards on 9 targets).  The top overall yardage for TE yesterday was Ebron, Hooper, Cook, Reed, Seals-Jones, O’Shaughnessy, Kelce

 

DEFENSES

Top Recommendations:   Packers, Saints

“We should be starting our research with defense every week.  You should be locking in your defense and THEN build your lineup.  The reason is that we have more options at WR and FLEX that dont have the variance of missing the right defense and while we got lucky EARLY in the season with defenses, we’re starting to see that flip as some teams start to punt entirely on offense and we get less ideal offensive conditions.  Make sue you are smart about defenses this week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS … The Packers are getting 2+ sacks every game + the Dolphins are giving up 2+ sacks per game.  So lets lock in three sacks (Steve math folks).  Next.  Brock Osweiler.  Okay cool, that’s two turnovers.  Throw in that Miami is not scoring more than 10 points this week and they could score?  Love the Packers this week and that’s why we aren’t playing Rodgers.” — The AMBUSH

Top Overall Finishers:   Redskins (17), Packers (14), Chargers (13), Bears (12)

Washington, Green Bay and Los Angeles all fall into the category of good teams that had the benefit of playing bad teams going in the wrong direction.

Bad Recommendations:   Jets (-3), Patriots (1), Jaguars (1)

 

Once again as I referenced above.  Your decision to pick the Jets Defense (-3 points) over the Packers Defense (14 points) was equally as big of a mistake as choosing Tom Brady over Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Russ Wilson or Drew Brees.   This was something we tried to focus on this week in our analysis and in the AMBUSH Breakdown the Packers made the list as the top defense to lock in this week.   Going forward, make sure the defense you pick is the foundation of your lineup as much as the Quarterback you try to hitch your wagon too.

 

 

 

 

About Steve Renner 657 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.