Week 11 TE Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Travis Kelce (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,500): Kelce has a TD in three straight games. He has five games with seven catches or more and three games with over yards receiving. Travis has three impact games (8/103/1, 7/111/1, and 7/133/1) while averaging 7.6 targets per game. The Giants are the worst team in the NFL defending TEs (50/632/10 on 75 targets). New York allowed a TD in each game this season, but no TE scored over 20 Fantasy points or scored more than one TD. The two-top active TEs were Jason Witten (7/59/1) and Zack Ertz (8/55/1). Elite matchup with chance to deliver an impact score especially with the Giants defense having plenty of quit in them.
Rob Gronkowski (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,200): Gronkowski is on pace for 76 catches for 1,166 yards and ten TDs on 126 targets, which is in line with his success in 2014 (82/1124/12) and 2015 (72/1176/11). Rob has three strong games (6/116/1, 8/89/1, and 6/83/2). He averages just under 7.9 targets per game. The Raiders are 23rd vs. TEs (45/525/3 on 62 targets) with five teams scoring between 15 and 24 Fantasy points. Two teams gained over 100 yards from the TE position against Oakland (LAC – 6/106 and MIA – 8/126). Favorable matchup and he's due for a playable game after being relatively quiet in his last three starts (3/51, 5/57/1, and 4/74). Nice fade play with most being drawn to Travis Kelce at the top end.
Evan Engram (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400): Engram has a TD in four straight games leading to four steady games (5/82/1, 6/60/1, 4/70/1, and 6/31/1) while averaging 9.5 targets per game. Evan has four catches or more in eight of his nine games, but he doesn't have over six catches in any game. His growth in opportunity was created by the injuries to Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall. The Chiefs are league average defending TEs (31/551/0 on 54 targets). No TE has a TD against Kansas City, but three teams gained over 100 yards receiving from the TE positions (6/107, 5/110, and 6/107). Big play type matchup, but a TD will be the toughest part of the equation.
Jared Cook (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,600): Cook has been an important part of the Raiders' passing game over the last three contests. Over this span, Jared has 18 catches for 290 yards and no TDs on 21 targets. He is on pace 70 catches for 887 yards and two TDs on 98 targets. This would be his best season in his career. Cook averages 6.1 targets per game. The Patriots struggled over the first six weeks defending TEs. Five teams scored between 17 and 20 Fantasy points. New England has been much improved vs. TEs in the last three games (ATL – 1/6, LAC – 4/36, and DEN – 2/6). Overall, TEs have 43 catches for 424 yards and five TDs on 60 targets against the Patriots. Steady game for Cook with more upside if he scores a TD.
Vernon Davis (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,200): Davis will have the whole show at TE for Washington in Week 11 with Jordan Reed having another setback. Over the last two games, Vernon has 13 catches for 148 yards on 20 targets. He has over 55 yards receiving six of his last seven games, but his only TD to came in Week 2. The Saints are 7th in the NFL against TEs (29/308/5 on 51 targets) with one team scoring over 13 Fantasy points (NE – 7/121/1). Nice floor in most weeks, but this isn't a great matchup unless he breaks his scoreless streak.
Kyle Rudolph (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,400): Rudolph has five catches or more in five straight games while averaging 7.8 targets per game. Even with a bump in chances and catches, Kyle has fewer than 50 yards receiving in each game. The Rams rank 9th in the league vs. TEs (33/366/3 on 58 targets) with only the Giants having a high level of success (6/91/1). More of the same.
Cameron Brate (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,500): Brate has back-to-back poor games (1/9 and 1/10) after a string of five good games (4/80/1, 5/68/1, 6/76/1, 6/60, and 4/64). Cameron averages 5.7 targets per game. Miami has plenty of risk vs. TEs (56/484/6 on 74 targets) with the last six opponents scoring double Fantasy points (12.30, 20.60, 15.50, 14.70, 11.80, and 22.20). The Dolphins had the toughest time vs. TEs (ATL – 10/101/1, TEN – 10/62/1, and OAK – 8/93/1). Priced to payoff, which makes sense as I played him a lot last week.
Charles Clay (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,300): In his first game back in the starting lineup, Clay caught two of his three targets for 13 yards while being on the field for 29 of 48 plays. Over his first five games, Charles had three steady game (4/53/1, 6/39/1, and 5/112) while averaging 5.6 targets per game. The Chargers are 2nd in the NFL against TEs (33/412/1 on 54 targets) with the Patriots having the most success (6/70/1). A change at QB vs. a defense with minimal upside in TD scoring for TEs points to avoid in the daily games.
Hunter Henry (DK – $3,500/FD – $5,200): Henry was a none factor in the passing game over the last two games (2/11 and 1/7) with only four combined targets. He now has five games with empty stats with three mid-teen games (7/80, 3/42/1, and 5/90). Hunter has out snapped Antonio Gates by a wide margin in five straight games (59 to 41, 54 to 37, 47 to 18, 35 to 25, and 45 to 26). The Bills held TEs to 15.10 Fantasy points or lower in eight games with one disaster game (TB – 12/158/2). Overall, TEs have 47 catches for 512 yards and two TDs on 63 targets. Weak opportunity despite high upside in scoring ability. The Bills were drilled in the run game last week so a play action TD to the TE position is a likely outcome in Week 11.
Eric Ebron (DK – $3,300/FD – $5,400): Ebron has three catches or fewer in seven straight games. He's looked better in his last three games (2/58, 3/35, and 2/39/1) while receiving only 13 targets. Eric is on pace for only 36 catches for 416 yards and four TDs on 69 targets. All of these stats are well below his expected value set after a nice 2016 season (61/711/1). Chicago ranks 3rd in the league against TEs (40/401/2 on 58 targets) with only one TE having success (Austin Hooper – 2/128/1). Better than his results, but he still lacks opportunity.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (DK – $3,100/FD – $4,600): Fiedorowicz was on the field for 63 of 68 plays run by Houston in Week 10, but he only had two catches for ten yards on six targets. The Texans TEs have 35 catches for 435 yards and one TD on 61 targets in 2017 with only one game of value (Week 3 – 6/75/1). Arizona is 24th in the league against TEs (44/404/4 on 69 targets) with three teams having success (PHI – 9/82/1, TB – 8/96/1, and SEA – 6/27/2). Not ready to be a starter in the daily games.
Tyler Kroft (DK – $2,900/FD – $5,300): Kroft had his worst game of the season in Week 10 (1/4 on six targets). Over the last seven games, Tyler has one game of value (6/68/2) while averaging 4.9 targets per game. The Broncos fell to 31st in TE defense (55/746/6 on 77 targets) with six teams scoring 19 Fantasy points or more (DAL – 10/97/1, BUF – 7/70/1, NYG – 6/88/1, KC – 7/133/1, PHI – 5/80/1, and NE – 8/123/1). This matchup is favorable and the Broncos have talent at WR suggesting Andy Dalton will need to use Kroft a lot in this matchup. Viable.
Ben Watson (DK – $2,800/FD – $4,900): Over the last eight games, Watson has 38 catches for 261 yards and two TDs on 48 targets. His only game of value came in Week 2 (8/91) while receiving a season high ten targets last week (7/41). The Packers have the best TE defense in the NFL (35/343/0 on 51 targets). Poor matchup even with a dirt-cheap salary.
Julius Thomas (DK – $2,800/FD – $5,000): Thomas has a TD in two straight games after failing to find the end zone over the first seven games of the year. Julius has three catches or fewer in eight of his nine games. His only game of value came in Week 9 (6/84/1). On the year, he averages 4.6 targets per game. Tampa is 10th in the league against TEs (34/388/3 on 48 targets) with one team having success (NYG – 8/73/1). Tough to trust.