39 Expert Picks
The Pale Hose may be the worst team in modern MLB history. It really is that bad. Thet don't do anything well and lack quality everywhere. They are facing a rested Rays team and they are facing their ace in Zach Eflin, who looks like TB latest ridiculous discovery. Chris Flexen has an ERA around 7 and shouldn't be starting games for anyone. Get this: the Sox have been shutout in 4 of his 5 starts and scored 1 run in the other. They have a Run Differential of 37-1 in his starts. This probably should be 2.5 runs by now. Ride this while we still can
The O's lineup has few holes 1-8 these days, they have been an excellent team at home for 2 years now and they are refreshed after a day off at home Thurs following a road trip, while the A's battled in the Bronx. Corbin Burnes is overdue for a true ace outing and should provide length here with BAL middle-innings guys a problem. Ross Stripling has been pretty bad (5.34 ERA) and Orioles have all top arms in pen available. Could get ugly
Austin Reaves is a much better shooter at home and I like him to clear his scoring prop for the first time this series. Since the start of March, he's gone Over this total in nine of 12 home games. Reaves is getting an average of 35 minutes in this series, so the opportunity should be there.
We generally do not get odds feeds of alternate totals, etc. on any sport, but we are getting one from Bet365 on this total -- hence the crazy juice (on 5.5 goals, the Under is -115). I'll be surprised if this goes Over 6.5 barring a 3-3 regulation tie, so I'm going to take the rare opportunity.
It's set and forget time in this Edmonton-Los Angeles series, I'm betting the over in every game unless it goes to a Game 7. You can find a flat 6 at a reasonable price, so feel free to do that if you'd like to cover a potential push, but after a 7-4 and 5-4 game, I don't see this pace slowing down. This marks the 16th playoff matchup over the past three years for these teams, and nine of the 15 so far have seen 7+ goals, including five straight going for nine or more. Give me the over, and load up some Adrian Kempe props while you're at it, the man seems to be contractually obligated to shoot the puck against Edmonton.
Won't be playing look-ahead totals very often but the winds are expected to be blowing in at Comerica Park for the Friday matinee and KC starter Seth Lugo has a 2.03 ERA. The Tigers are hitting just .214 at home. Their pitcher, Reese Olson, has made just one home start this year and it was quality. I think this will close at 8 across the board so wanted the hook now.
We saw a glimpse of what this series could become with Thatcher Demko out of the net, and it's not pretty for Vancouver. On just 15 shots, Casey DeSmith allowed three goals for a putrid save percentage of .800. Nashville won 4-1 thanks to an empty netter, and now returning home, they seem set to take control of this series. I was a believer in the value on the Preds before this series began, and I'm surprised we're getting such a reasonable price on their moneyline at home on Friday. Count me in.
I make the Royals 54 percent winners in this road matchup which implies a moneyline price of -117. 24-year old Reese Olson is going to be a fine pitcher at some point, but I don't like the hard contact against this lineup.
If I had any Pirates gear, I would be in mid-burn after their bullpen blew a sure runline cover this afternoon. Can't end the day like that. Oakland's Alex Wood has been one of the worst pitchers in the American League at 0-2 with a 7.89 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. Aaron Judge has not faced him, but it sure feels like a guy Judge would take deep (if Judge is healthy that is). New York's Nestor Cortes has not allowed an earned run in two home starts spanning 15 innings.
The Magic can't possibly score less/shoot worse at home than they did the first two games in Cleveland, and they were a tremendous 29-12 in Orlando during the regular season. Might be a bit easy for the Cavs to be a bit asleep at the wheel with two such easy wins so far -- they haven't even TRAILED. Cleveland did lose four of its final five regular-season away games.
Kawhi Leonard figures to be a bit more in rhythm with a game under his belt as well as a few practices, while the Mavs will be without Tim Hardaway Jr. and are listing starting big Daniel Gafford as questionable Friday. Since about March 20, the Clippers have been much better on the road than at home. Overall this season, LA was first in the NBA on the road in three-point shooting (39.8%) and in free-throw shooting (82.8%).
Think the Canucks are toast in this series with No. 1 goaltender Thatcher Demko ruled out for Friday after also missing Game 2 with an injury -- and it sounds like he will not return this series after winning the opener. Casey DeSmith is a solid No. 2 but a massive downgrade as we saw in Game 2 when he allowed a goal on Nashville's first shot as the Preds won 4-1 in Vancouver. DeSmith also struggled some at the end of the regular season. Really tough break for the Pacific Division champs.
The Sunshine State series is being conducted in close quarters, with plenty of tight checking and not much room for the respective snipers to operate. Defense has been the name of the game as each of the first two games landed 3-2 in Florida's favor, and both goalies (Sergei Bobrovsky and Andrei Vasilevskiy) looking sharp beat. If there might be an edge with the series shifted to Tampa, it's the absence of Panthers forward and catalyst Sam Bennett, out at least a week with what appeared a wrist injury suffered in Game 2. In a series of such tight margins, the absence of a key cog like Bennett looms large, and the Lightning will play with real urgency tonight. Play Lightning on Money Line
Are the Knicks better than everyone thought...or are they simply tempting fate? Leaving it late as in Game 2 suggests that maybe it's the former, as even with Jalen Brunson shooting only 29% from the floor in the series (and just 7 of 28 in Game 2), New York still forged a 2-0 lead at MSG vs. the Sixers. Or, are the Knicks standing on the precipice, risking everything collapsing if Brunson doesn't begin to ignite like he did prior to the playoffs, when scoring nearly 36 pg in the first half of April? There are plausible explanations both wasy, but we do know both previous games cleared 204, and each was trending strongly "over" prior to Monday's game. Play Knicks-Sixers "Over"
A team returning home down 0-2 in the series is very much a system play that I have to trust. These Game 3 situations tend to get the group as motivated as they'll ever be to avoid falling into an 0-3 hole. These two teams met last season in the first round. Carolina took the first two games at home, the series went to New York, and the Islanders won Game 3 5-1. I am bumping this down to a .5u play because the way Game 2 ended could just be so demoralizing for the Isles, but I'm expecting a spirited and aggressive effort to make this a series.