NHL DFS: The Point Shot – 11/6

Top Goalies

 

Frederik Andersen (TOR)

Love this spot at home for Freddy against a Vegas team that have not fully hit their stride offensively just yet. We should see enough volume from Andersen and I would expect him to come away with a win.

 

Sergei Bobrovsky (CBJ)

Bobrovsky has been very underwhelming early on this season. He faces the Stars at home who just played into overtime last night in Boston before coming up short. I expect a good performance from Bob tonight at home where the Jackets are better as a team.

 

Carey Price (MTL)

Price is a great value tonight for the Canadiens as they take on the Rangers in Madison Square Garden. Price is looking to bounce back after allowing four goals in back to back games and I think we see a big night from the Canadien netminder.

 

Others to consider: Jack Campbell (LA), Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB)

 

Key Three Skaters

 

John Tavares (TOR)

While Auston Matthews continues to sit out, JT has seen an increase in ice time and has been productive. He has four points in his last four games with a goal and three assists over that span. Tavares leads the league in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and 13th in shots per 60. The Leafs are home where they have been sub-par, but they host the Golden Knights who are just 2-5 on the road. Toronto is seventh in goals per game (3.43) and has the fourth-best power play (30.8 percent success rate) in the league. Expect Tavares to be a factor in all situations tonight.

 

Brendan Gallagher (MTL)

He should have his way up front against the Ranger defense who decide to never hit anyone in front of the net. He’s generated 12 shots against the blue shirts in his last two games against them and is top-ten this season in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. Gallagher is the type of player that gives the Rangers trouble with a strong net-front presence and his ability to score in traffic.

 

Jeff Carter (LA)

Carter centers the “that 70’s line” once again as they’ve been reunited with the firing of John Stevens as head coach. In his last two games, Carter has a goal and an assist in each and has 10 shots in his last three games. The Ducks comes into tonight having allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to centers, including 17 goals, 21 assists, and 179 shots. With time on the top power-play unit, Carter’s value, ice time, and matchup have me liking him tonight.

 

Favorite Line Stacks

 

Blue Jackets First Line

Panarin – Dubois – Atkinson

PLD has been hot of late with four goals in his last five games. Unfortunately, Panarin and Atkinson have done nothing over that span leading one (myself) to believe that can only change. The Stars just played a hard-fought overtime game last night in Boston against the Bruins, a game in which they lost in the extra period. Now they fly to Columbus to face a Blue Jackets team that has been solid at home over the last two seasons. Panarin is too good to be held down (15 points in 14 games) much longer and as I’ve said, he’s gone pointless in each of his last four. Atkinson, similar to Panarin, is ice cold but that’s to say that he doesn’t have his opportunities. Atkinson averages 5.56 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes and is 10th with 12.55 shots per 60. I fully expect this line to show up tonight.

 

Blues First Line

Schwartz – O’Reilly – Tarasenko

Ryan O’Reilly has been on fire of late with points in each of his last seven games tallying four goals and eight assists over that span. ROR moves up to the first line tonight with Brayden Schenn missing this game due to injury. Vladimir Tarasenko, as I mentioned a few days ago was due to start lighting the lamp and he has done so to the tune of four goals in his last five games with 18 shots over that span. With 14.07 shots per 60 minutes (third-most in the league) and an average of 18:49 ice time per game, Vlad should see plenty of chances to keep his hot stretch up tonight. Jaden Schwartz adds some good value to this line at $5,100 on DK and $5,300 on FD.

 

Sharks First Line

Evander – Joe Thornton – Joe Pavelski

Kane, Thornton, and Pavelski come in as a great value line, especially Thornton and Pavelski who skate on the top power-play unit. Kane is a high volume shooter facing the Wild who have allowed an average of 33.4 shots per game. Thornton, recently back from injury, had a goal in his last game and Pavelski, who moved over to wing with the return of Thornton has points in three of his last four games against the Wild.

 

Others to consider: Devils first line (Hall – Hischier – Palmieri), Lightning first line (Miller – Stamkos – Kucherov)

 

Top Positional Plays

Players not mentioned in “key three” or “favorite line stacks” sections.

 

Center

 

Connor McDavid (EDM) – He doesn’t suck.

Nico Hischier (NJ) – The Senators have allowed the second-most fantasy points to centers this season and Hischier is among the leaders in high-danger scoring chances.

Dylan Larkin (DET) – Two goals and six assists over his four-game point streak.

Elias Pettersson (VAN) – Bursting on the scene as the favorite right now to win the Calder trophy. He has 10 goals and nine assists on the season and four goals with three assists in his last three games.

William Karlsson (VGK) – In a high-paced game against Toronto who allows a lot of scoring chances, Wild Bill is underpriced on DK at $5,000.

Logan Couture (SJ) – He’s a score-first type of center with points in each of his last nine games.

Brayden Point (TB) – Quietly has eight goals and nine assists in 14 games this season.

Mika Zibanajad (NYR) – Good matchup against the Canadiens playing on a back to back and who have allowed 19 goals and 24 assists to centers in 14 games.

Anze Kopitar (LA) – I mentioned the Ducks’ inefficiencies against the center. Kopi is a crazy value at $5,400 on DK with points in each of his last three games.

Sebastian Aho (CAR) – After recording a point in every game to start the season, Aho has gone pointless in his last two. Expect him to get back on track against the Blues who have allowed 20 goals and 23 assists to centers thus far.

Nazem Kadri (TOR) – Good value and getting more playing time in important situations with the absence of Auston Matthews.

 

Wing

 

Taylor Hall (NJ) – Has six points in his last three games against Ottawa who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to left-wingers.

Jonathan Marchessault (VGK) – You’ll have to pay for him but his line-mate William Karlsson’s salary on DK will offset his hefty price tag as an upside mini-stack.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) – As long as he skates with McDavid he’ll be in play, even in a tougher matchup against Tampa.

Mitch Marner (TOR) – Among the leaders in the league in primary assists per 60 minutes. He’s been more than a point-per-game player thus far and his salary is justified in a high-pace game in which he will generate plenty of scoring chances at even strength and on the power play. He’s shown to gel well with John Tavares.

Timo Meier (SJ) – Meier is third among forwards in high-danger chances per 60 minutes, average 11.52 shots per 60, and is first with 2.52 goals per 60.

Rickard Rakell (ANA) – Two goals in his last three games against the Kings and has four points in his last three games as he starts to turn things around after a horrific start.

Reilly Smith (VGK) – Still very underpriced on DK skating on the first line and top power-play unit.

Anthony Mantha (DET) – Big body up front that isn’t afraid to shoot skating on the first line and top power-play unit.

Ilya Kovalchuk (LA) – Skates on the second line and top power-play unit with Carter.

Dustin Brown (LA) – Has two goals and two assists in his three games this season. Skates with Kopitar on the first line and top power-play unit.

Tyler Toffoli (LA) – At $3,900 on DK his speed is an x-factor as well as his ability to get pucks to the net.

 

Defense

 

Drew Doughty (LA) – Doughty has four points in his last three games and averages the most ice-time of any defenseman. The Ducks have allowed 25 points in 14 games to blueliners this season.

Seth Jones (CBJ) – Has a goal and two assists in his last three games and should continue to generate chances from the back end against the Stars tonight. In seven games he has two goals, two assists, 18 shots, and 12 blocks as he continues to ascend as one of the better young defensemen.

Brent Burns (SJ) – Quietly has 16 points in 13 games this season which, for his standards, is pedestrian.

Dougie Hamilton (CAR) – Leads all defensemen by a longshot with 12.98 shots per 60 minutes.

Cam Fowler (ANA) – After his hat trick the other night, his salary has jumped up a bit, but he’s blocking shots, getting pucks to the net, and has a good matchup.

Morgan Rielly (TOR) – He’s an offensive force that isn’t afraid to pinch in down low and rely on his speed to get him back on defense. Rielly has six goals and 12 assists, including two goals and two assists in his last three games.

Zach Werenski (CBJ) – Way underpriced on both sites, especially DK at less than 5K.

Oscar Klefbom (EDM) – Points in three of his last four games with 17 shots over that span.

Shea Theodore (VGK) – Among all defensemen, he’s top 10 in shots per 60 minutes. The Leafs have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to defensemen.

Sami Vatanen (NJ) – Shoots and blocks shots effectively and the Senators have allowed the most fantast points to defensemen this season.

 

Value

 

Jake Gardiner (TOR) – Always a viable option on a team that pushes the pace.

Jeff Petry (MTL) – Petry is basically free on FanDuel and a good value on DK also against the Rangers who have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to defensemen.

Darnell Nurse (EDM) – Underpriced for the offensive upside he brings. One factor to consider here in no power play time, though.

John Klingberg (DAL) – Not used to seeing him as a value, but on DK he’s uner 6K which is a big drop off for a guy with 12 points and 40 shots in 14 games this season.

Matt Dumba (MIN) – Very offensive-minded with four goals, three assists, and 36 shots in 13 games.

Will Butcher (NJ) – I mentioned Ottawa’s struggles with the position and Butcher showed the ability he has last night offensively. Major plus here is that he sees time on the top power-play unit.

 

Favorite Center – Wing Combos

 

Kings – Carter, Toffoli

Leafs – Tavares, Marner

Golden Knights – Karlsson, Marchessault

Oilers – McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins

Sharks – Couture, Meier

Red Wings – Larkin, Mantha

 

GOOD LUCK!

 

About Rob Geriak 131 Articles
Rob Geriak (MLB, NHL) has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years shifting his focus over to DFS a few years back. Geriak started out posting daily thoughts and analysis in the Scout Fantasy message boards and has contributed across the industry in many different areas providing top-notch content including on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio. Geriak presents his content in a simplified, straight to the point form with a mix of advanced and common data assisting all fantasy sports players from the casual, novice player to the avid, experienced player. You can follow Rob on Twitter @TheRobGeriak