EROD – we’ve been targeting lefty pitchers against Baltimore for over a week. ERod has been very good in terms of batting average on the road limiting righting to .174 average and lefties to a .118. He also holds a 27.4% k rate on the road including an insane 52.9% to lefties……see ya Chris Davis. (Risk factor 4)
Gray – Better on the road of course than at Coors, with a 4.73 era, the main blemish that sticks out is his trouble with LHB. Lefties hit him the hardest at 45% on the road, but they also strike out more at 23.8%. There is some risk, but philly is also cold at the moment and also come in with the highest k rate vs rhp at 26.9% (Risk factor 5)
Mikolas – You should know by now my love for Mikolas. Nasty at home with a 1.28 era and .205 average. Top that with his 57.4% ground ball rate at home and 0.85 whip. Over the past week San Diego has hit just .237 against RHP. (Risk factor 4)
Folty – Folty as home is good Folty. Whopping 32.9% k rate and almost a 50% ground ball rate. Over his past 2 starts he’s struck out 19 in 14 innings while only allowing 7 hits and 2 runs. The Mets are in shambles right now, and the only guy hitting at the moment is Frazier. Good spot here for Folty and we should expect him to go deep into this game. (Risk factor 4)
Other serviceable arms
Dodgers – They could come in very sneaky considering some of the chalk on this slate. The human potato has been horrific against RHB allowing 13 home runs, with 10 of those coming in the road. Righties are hitting him at a 53.5% hard contact and 2.45 HR/9.
Minnesota – hardy gives it up to lefties at home .333 average, 54.6% hard contact and 45.5% fly ball rate. Kepler hits over .300 against the split, while daily Dozier is always a threat against a lefty. Mix in Rosario who’s mashing both sides.
White Sox – Plutko is not good, don’t let the numbers fool you. Lefties are beating his head in with a 51.9% hard contact, .309 avg and 2 Hr. Against LHB they’re only striking out 8.8%. Moncada and Palko homer here today, maybe even Yolmer.
St. Louis – bullpen day for San Diego, and right off the bat they see a lefty. Last year Strahm Gave up 5 homers on the road all the RHB. Should the Cards get through top 9 batter one will homer. My guess is the blistering hot JMart.