PITCHING (Sale is the top arm today with a very good matchup against Detroit)
Happ – 2.60 road era, and gets a terrible Baltimore team. Comes in with a 27.5% is rate on the road. He’s been battle tested in July, but should turn it around today. (Risk factor 4)
Folty – destroyed this Washington team the last time he faced them in a complete game, 11 strikeout outing. Little bit of a risk with how he’s been pitching, but double digit k upside is there again. (Risk factor 6)
Odorizzi – has pitched better on the road with a 4.01 era, and does get a bit of a positive park shift. 24% k rate on the road to go along with a 33% hard contact. He’s not a flashy pick, but should have a 25-30 point floor today. (Risk factor 4)
Archer – 3rd game back from the DL and should be able to go a little bit deeper in this game. Tough on righties at home with a 30% k rate. Miami can be pesky, but if Realmuto, Bour or Dietrich sit it’ll favor Archer considerably. (Risk factor 5)
Tampa Righties – Richards gives up a .328 average and 4 homers to RHB. He also owned a 5.94 road era.
Toronto lefties – Cashner off the DL with a neck strain, he’ll probably irritate it watching balls fly out today. Smoak my favorite, Granderson will be chalky.
Cincinnati lefties – Nova has given up a .330 average and 8 home runs to lefties on the road. Scooter is due for a big game, Winker I like as well.
Pittsburgh lefties – Harvey has pitched well recently but also hasn’t gone deep into games. So we could get the pen in the 5th. Top 3 in the lineup will do the damage.
Dodgers – Suter has given up 12 home runs to righties (7 being at home). We’ve been waiting for a huge game from this team since Manny was traded so today could be it.