Kluber – bounce back spot for him, and he’s priced down a little bit. I still think there’s something off with him, especially with how bad he’s been in his last 5 starts. But, he does get a Detroit team who’s struck out 4th move over the past week at a 24.8% clip. (Risk factor 4)
Musgrove – DID YOU SEE WHAT THE METS THREW OUT TODAY?!?!?!? Gooooooooood lord, if Musgrove doesn’t mow through these guys he needs to be sent down. (Risk factor 3)
Rodon – he’s been nasty in July and even better at home. 1.77 home era to go with a .164 average. He’s average a strikeout an inning in July, while giving up just one home run in 21 innings. (Risk factor 4)
Happ – first start in New York so we’ll take this as a “road” start for stats purposes. 2.60 era and a 27.5% k rate. KC is not scary, especially with Whit Merrifield as their clean up hitter today. (Risk factor 4)
Philly – One of the hottest teams in the league right now, who’s even better now with Asdrubal in the lineup. Castillo struggles against lefties, and Rhys is mashing everything he sees.
Yankees – righties are hitting him at a 47% hard contact rate, while also hitting fly balls around 47%. Stanton moved into the 2 hole after the Aaron Judge injury. If you remember last year, when Miami moved him there, he went on to hit 47 home runs. Expect a home run today
Miami – Miami lit him up for 8 earned and 2 home runs last time he saw them. Justin Bour has a ridiculous 72.7% hard contact rate over the last 7 days, and he’s extremely cheap. This could be one of the last games Realmuto plays in Miami, so there a little bit of narrative there as well.
Dodgers – Newcomb has had a rough July with a 7.00 era and 5 home runs given up in 18 innings. This team is as dangerous as anyone against a lefty.
Cleveland – Granted they’re not at home, but I think Zimmerman was pitching over his head earlier this year. He’s not good, and the lefties will expose him today. JRam, Alonso and Kipnis are my favorites.