Scouting the NBA 1/10/18

Plays of the Day

Value: Jawun Evans leads a group of Clippers guards that should provide solid value tonight. Along with C.J. Williams and Tyrone Wallace, the rookie will see extended run with Austin Rivers (heel) and Milos Teodosic (foot) out, while everyone in a Clippers uniform will see more usage with Blake Griffin (concussion) out tonight.

Fade: Nikola Jokic is coming off a triple double against the Warriors and may seem like a tempting option against the Hawks, but with Dewayne Dedmon back from a leg injury, Atlanta’s been better defensively and could hold the big man in check.

 

Point Guards

 

Chris Paul – (9,700 DK/10,300 FD)

Paul is averaging 20.8 PPG, 10.8 APG and 6.8 RPG over five appearances since James Harden (hamstring) suffered his injury. The Blazers are a solid defensive team overall, but take a hit on that end with Shabazz Napier starting at PG instead of Damian Lillard (calf), so give CP3 a boost if Lillard sits out both ends of this B2B set for Portland and consider him in cash games regardless as a reliable source of peripheral stats with a high usage rate in an uptempo system.

Jawun Evans – (4,700 DK/4,700 FD)

Evans has a great chance to exceed value as a starter on an injury-plagued Clippers team. Milos Teodosic (foot) is unlikely to play tonight and Austin Rivers (heel) has been ruled out for a couple of weeks, while Blake Griffin (concussion) will also sit tonight. In their absence, Evans produced 13 points, eight rebounds, four assists and four steals over a solid 39 minutes of run on Sunday and he should see plenty of court time whether this game is close or not.

 

Potential Value

Shabazz Napier – (6,200 DK/4,200 FD)

Napier is a stunning value on FD and will be a great option if Damian Lillard (calf) is inactive.

 

Longshot

Goran Dragic – (6,500 DK/6,500 FD)

Dragic led Miami to a close win last night and should keep rolling against a weak Pacers defense with Tyler Johnson (shoulder) and Dion Waiters (ankle) out.

 

Shooting Guards

Lou Williams – (8,100 DK/7,900 FD)

While there’s certainly a chance for a blowout loss at Golden State tonight, the Clippers will lean on Lou Williams for as long as this game remains close. The prolific reserve is averaging an incredible 33.1 PPG over his last nine appearances and he’s being asked to do even more with Rivers, Teodosic and Griffin inactive. With those three players off the floor, Lou Will boasts a 36.5 percent usage rate and averages 1.25 FPs per minute, so he’s worth a look against a high-scoring Warriors team that will give up points with the confidence that they’ll be able to match.

C.J. McCollum – (7,500 DK/7,800 FD)

McCollum remains an excellent cash option with a high floor due to his scoring ability and his price tag remains relatively low with Lillard questionable. He’s rocking a 33.1 percent usage rate and averaging 0.65 points per minute with Lillard off the floor this season and the Rockets fast style of play can seriously benefit a guard with his skill set. Eric Gordon is a below average defender and Houston gives up the ninth-most FPPG (43.95) to opposing SGs over the last month, while CJM is averaging 23.5 PPG over his last four meetings against the Rockets with Lillard soaking up a ton of shots.

 

Potential Value

C.J. Williams – (3,900 DK/4,400 FD)

Williams had a big game against the Hawks on Sunday and is another Clippers value to consider along with Tyrone Wallace.

 

Longshot

Tyreke Evans – (8,300 DK/8,300 FD)

Evans is always worth a look on a Memphis team that’s starved for offense and he draws a great matchup against his former team in the Pelicans.

 

Small Forwards

Jimmy Butler – (8,700 DK/9,700 FD)

After dominating LeBron James and the Cavs on Monday, Butler will look to stay hot against a struggling Thunder team. He needed just 27 minutes to exceed value with 21 points, eight rebounds, nine assists and three steals on Monday and he’s going to play plenty of minutes tonight in an effort to contain Russell Westbrook and/or Paul George. The Thunder gives up the ninth-most PPG (24.14) to opposing SGs over the last month and that may have something to do with Andre Roberson (knee) missing time.

 Josh Richardson – (6,300 DK/5,600 FD)

With Dion Waiters (ankle) out and Tyler Johnson (doubtful), Richardson should continue to log heavy minutes for the Heat. He established a very solid floor with double-digit points in 14 consecutive games prior to last night’s letdown in a tough spot at Toronto. Tonight Miami hosts a Pacers team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating, so Richardson could bounce back in a game more favorable to offenses.

 

Potential Value

Joe Harris – (4,400 DK/4,000 FD)

Harris remains a reliable value with DeMarre Carroll (knee) out and Caris LeVert (groin) limited for Brooklyn.

Longshot

Otto Porter – (6,100 DK/6,100 FD)

Porter is back from a hip injury and could flash his upside against a weak Jazz defense.

Power Forwards

Aaron Gordon – (8,000 DK/7,600 FD)

Even when forced to come off the bench for disciplinary reasons, Gordon still met value with 19 points and 8 rebounds over 32 minutes last night. He’s the main source of offense for Orlando and far more reliable than pure scorer Evan Fournier or Elfrid Payton, who lost work to D.J. Augustin in a loss at Dallas on Tuesday. Tonight the Magic face a Bucks team that ranks 25th in defensive rating and dead last in total rebounding this year, so AG is a good bet for a double double as he’ll likely move back into the SLU.

Jordan Bell – (4,300 DK/4,400 FD)

You could feel comfortable predicting a blowout win for the Warriors at home tonight against an injury-depleted Clippers team and that would mean more run for young guys such as Bell. He would likely start if Draymond Green (knee) can’t go and will match up against slow-footed PF Montrezl Harrell instead of Blake Griffin (concussion). Kevin Durant (calf) is also iffy for this contest as is Andre Iguodala (rest), so the Warriors bench mob offers solid upside and salary relief.

 

Potential Value

 

Bobby Portis – (4,700 DK/4,900 FD)

Portis would become a great play if Nikola Mirotic (illness) is still under the weather.

 

Longshot

 

Tobias Harris – (6,900 DK/6,700 FD)

Harris continues to provide a solid floor with surprising upside on the Pistons, who will face a weak Nets defense tonight.

 

Centers

 

Andre Drummond – (8,700 DK/9,300 FD)

Drummond proved that he’s over his rib injury as he produced 16 points and 14 boards in a close loss to the Pelicans Monday. Now he’ll face a Nets team that plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA and coughs up the third-most FPPG (55.19) to opposing centers this season, so he’s clearly worth a look at a slightly diminished price tag.

Marc Gasol – (7,600 DK/8,200 FD)

With Anthony Davis (ankle) questionable, Gasol could be contrarian play as the masses gravitate towards DeMarcus Cousins tonight. The Grizzlies big man produced a well-rounded line with 17 points, 11 rebounds, five assists and five blocks in a close loss to Washington last Friday and he’s playing on four full days of rest. Gasol averaged 20 PPG and 6.6 RPG over five appearances on 3-plus days of rest last year and he’s been a tough matchup for Cousins throughout their careers.

 

Potential Value

 

Bam Adebayo – (3,800 DK/3,700 FD)

Adebayo broke out with a double double last night and could see more run if Hassan Whiteside (knee) needs extra rest on the second half of a B2B set.

 

Longshot

 

Jusuf Nurkic – (6,600 DK/7,200 FD)

Nurkic remains a bargain on DK with increased upside while Damian Lillard (calf) is out.

 

Fuego Steve
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Fuego Steve has rapidly become one of the best DFS players in the industry for MLB, NBA, and the NFL. Just over the past year he has won numerous GPPs, including three qualifiers. Fuego was a live finalist at the 2017 & 2018 Fanduel Basketball Championships. Mainly a tournament player, he specializes in multi and single-entry gpps, roster construction, game theory, qualifiers, short slates and has a knack for projecting ownership percentages.