Scouting the NBA – 11/14/17

 

Plays of the Day

 

Value: Joe Harris is one of several Nets players who will be asked to step up with D’Angelo Russell on the shelf and he could fly under the radar given his modest production this season.

 

Fade: Al Horford has been great over his past several games and carries a solid floor into a plus matchup against Brooklyn, but the Celtics are balanced enough to score in other ways against the second-worst defense in the league and Horford is far from a sure bet to grab double-digit rebounds.     

 

Point Guard
 

Spencer Dinwiddie – (4,800 DK/5,800 FD)

Point guard is likely the best position at which to save some salary on this short slate and Dinwiddie leads a troop of values in Nets uniforms with the teams’ leader in scoring and assists, D’Angelo Russell (knee), inactive. The Colorado product will start for Russell and is averaging a solid 0.97 FPs per minute with him off the floor this season. Isaiah Whitehead ($3.6k, $3.9k) figures to see extra run behind Dinwiddie and he posts a 26 percent usage rate with Russell off the floor, but Dinwiddie is by far the more reliable option and worth deploying despite a tough matchup against the Celtics elite defense.

 

Potential Value

 

Dejounte Murray – (4,600 DK/4,400 FD)

Murray’s been a very risky play lately, but he matches up well against the Mavericks young backcourt and could exceed value tonight.

 

Longshot

 

Kyrie Irving – (8,200 DK/8,400 FD)

Kyrie could be active tonight while wearing a protective mask, and he could torch the Nets weak defense in a fast-paced matchup.


Shooting Guard

James Harden – (12,300 DK/12,500 FD)

At his lofty price tag, it’s tough to fit Harden into a balanced lineup, but it’s also very tough to fade him on a 3-game slate. The Beard is certainly an MVP candidate once again with a league-leading 53% assist rate and 3.2 Win Shares, as he’s orchestrating the Rockets offense with Chris Paul (knee) on the shelf. The Raptors are giving up an above average 40.61 FPPG and 23.42 PPG to opposing SGs this season and Harden averaged 34.5 PPG on 51.3% FG shooting over two meetings with Toronto last year, as if you needed any extra reasons to play him

Potential Value

 

Marcus Smart – (6,300 DK/6,200 FD)

Smart remains a preferred play on FanDuel, where steals/blocks count for 3 FPs, and he should rack up some turnovers in a matchup against the fast-paced Nets.

 

Longshot

 

DeMar DeRozan – (8,000 DK/8,100 FD)

DeRozan should go right back at Harden tonight in a battle of below average defenders.

 

Small Forward

 

DeMarre Carroll – (5,800 DK/6,200 FD)

He’s actually the Nets player with the greatest increase in usage rate (+6% to 24.9%) with D’Angelo Russell off the floor this year and Carroll is reasonably priced despite the absence of Brooklyn’s primary option. The “Junkyard Dog,” is a good candidate to produce in what should be a helter skelter matchup between the fast-paced Nets and young and athletic Celtics and he’s been much better at home in averaging 16.3 PPG while shooting 45.5% from downtown over four appearances at Barclays this year.


 

Potential Value

 

Joe Harris– (3,500 DK/3,400 FD)

Harris should step up on the wing with D’Angelo Russell out for Brooklyn.

 

Longshot

 

Harrison Barnes – (6,100 DK/6,900 FD)

Barnes is a viable play in any format with Kawhi Leonard (quad) out for the Spurs, but beware of a potential blowout.


Power Forward

LaMarcus Aldridge – (8,500 DK/8,700 FD)

While the Spurs (-6) are only slightly favored tonight against a 2-12 Mavs team that ranks 26th in defensive rating, they could win easily on the road. Yet Aldridge should remain a safe play even in a blowout and he has more upside than any other forward on this short slate, as he leads his team with a 27.6 percent usage rate and is posting the best true shooting percentage (.565%) of his career. Dallas gives up the second-most FPPG (52.62) to opposing PFs this season and LMA represents a mismatch for the Mavs under sized front line.

 

Potential Value

 

Trevor Booker – (4,400 DK/4,300 FD)

Booker’s appeared limited by a back injury over the past week, but if he’s relatively healthy he’ll be a good bet to produce a double double and exceed value against Boston tonight.

 

Longshot

 

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – (6,400 DK/7,500 FD)

RHJ is far more affordable on DK and worth a look in any format tonight with D’Angelo Russell out and the Nets searching for offense from other sources.

 

Center

 

Clint Capela – (7,100 DK/7,500 FD)

Al Horford should be the chalk play tonight, especially if Kyrie Irving remains out, but Capela is a great pivot to consider in any format. The Rockets should put Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas in PnR and run circles around him, leading to plenty of lob dunks for Capela, who has been excellent in playing off double teams of Harden to lead the league in FG shooting (.696%) this season. He’s rolling with 46 points, 44 boards and 8 blocks over his last three appearances and it’s no coincidence that his spike in production has come along with Harden’s eruption.

 

Potential Value

 

Serge Ibaka – (5,200 DK/5,300 FD)

If JoVal struggles to defend the Rockets Harden-based attack, Ibaka may wind up playing the bulk of minutes at the 5 for Toronto.

 

Longshot

 

Salah Mejri – (3,300 DK/3,400 FD)

Mejri has apparently passed Nerlens Noel on the depth chart and he’s a longshot value to consider tonight against the Spurs. 

 

 

About Nate Weitzer 114 Articles
Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He’s been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA advice while continuing to build his bankroll on several sites. He is also a season-long king and has won several leagues over the years.Weitzer is a sports journalist with a Masters from Boston University’s College of Communication. When he’s not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.