Scouting the NBA – 11/16/17

 

Plays of the Day

 

Value: Marcus Morris is a versatile forward capable of playing the 3 or the 4 and he’ll be needed for the Celtics tonight in a matchup against the world champion Warriors. If he can stay out of foul trouble while guarding Draymond Green and/or Kevin Durant, he’ll likely exceed value once again.

 

Fade: Devin Booker can score with the best of them and may seem to have a great matchup tonight against James Harden, but the Rockets should slide veteran defender Trevor Ariza over to guard him and potentially contain the young stud.

 

Point Guard

Kyrie Irving – (8,100 DK/8,300 FD)

The center of the NBA universe is in Boston tonight and all eyes will be on Masked Kyrie as the Celtics go for their 14th straight win against the world champion Warriors. He draws a decent individual matchup against Steph Curry, who missed Monday’s tilt with a sore quad and might not be one hundred percent, while the Warriors are playing at the fifth-fastest pace and giving up the ninth-most APG (24.2) in the NBA this season. Kyrie’s taken control of the Celtics offense during their winning streak and is now rocking a 32.7 percent assist rate in addition to a 29.7 percent usage rate, and we know how “Playoff Kyrie” can perform in games with a playoff-like atmosphere.

 

Potential Value

Mike James – (4,100 DK/4,700 FD)

James could bounce back after a couple of slow games as he faces a potentially rusty Chris Paul (knee) tonight.

 


Shooting Guard

James Harden – (12,700 DK/12,500 FD)

While he didn’t even play well in actual basketball terms, Harden still met the value of his lofty price tag with 38 points, 11 assists and 62.5 DK points on Tuesday, although he turned the ball over 9 times in a loss to Toronto. Now he faces a pathetic Suns defense that gives up the most PPG (115.1) while playing at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season. Harden’s owned the Suns with averages of 33 PPG and 11.3 APG over his last three meetings with them and is obviously the prized play to pay up for in a game with a 228-point over/under.

Potential Value

Eric Gordon – (6,200 DK/6,100 FD)

Gordon is a great cash play to use if you can’t afford Harden because you’re opting to stack Celtics-Warriors.

 

Longshot

Marcus Smart – (5,500 DK/5,800 FD)

Smart is a good bet to lead the Celtics in minutes tonight as he matches up well against the small-ball Warriors.

 

Small Forward

T.J. Warren – (6,500 DK/7,200 FD)

Warren’s production has been bankable and his price tag remains relatively reasonable on DK despite the fact that he’s dropped 78 points and 106.25 DK points over his last three appearances. He draws a good matchup tonight against a fast-paced Rockets team that ranks 24th in opponents FG shooting (.465%) this season. Warren’s usage rate has skyrocketed to 26.3 percent this year (was 19.2% last season) and he’s been much more productive on the glass as well, averaging 9.5 RPG despite playing just 29.1 MPG this season, but his playing time has spiked considerably under new HC Jay Triano. 

 

 

Potential Value

Marcus Morris – (4,900 DK/5,000 FD)

Morris should see plenty of run tonight against the Warriors as his scoring would help the Celtics keep pace with the champs.

 

Longshot

Andre Igoudala – (3,500 DK/4,000 FD)

If this is truly a big game for the Warriors in Boston, then Iggy should play more minutes than he has on a regular basis this season.


Power Forward

Draymond Green – (7,300 DK/8,200 FD)

In a potential slugfest with the top-ranked Celtics defense, Green may actually have a higher floor than superstar scorers Kevin Durant and Steph Curry. While he doesn’t have the same ceiling as those MVP candidates, he’s been racking up peripheral stats as always with averages over 9.2 RPG, 7.9 APG and 2.8 STL/BLK per game while his scoring is up to 13.1 PPG and he’s posting the highest FG percentage (.520%) of his career thus far. The weak point of the Celtics defense remains down low and if their guards sell out to try and guard the three-point line, Green should make his money driving down the lane for high-percentage looks.

 

 

Longshot

Marquess Chriss – (4,000 DK/4,500 FD)

Chriss has plenty of upside for the Suns if he can avoid the foul trouble that’s plagued him all year.

 

 

Center

 

Clint Capela – (7,200 DK/7,400 FD)

Capela and Al Horford are basically the only options at center once again after finishing close to each other in FP production on Tuesday’s short slate. While Capela only logged 29 minutes in a decisive loss to Toronto, he should see more run tonight against the spry young Suns and represents a matchup nightmare for slower centers Alex Len and Tyson Chandler. Phoenix gives up the sixth-most RPG (17.21) to opposing centers this year and the pace of play in this contest almost assures Capela will achieve a double-double bonus, while Horford could struggle to keep up with the Dubs. 

 

About Nate Weitzer 97 Articles
Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He’s been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA advice while continuing to build his bankroll on several sites. He is also a season-long king and has won several leagues over the years.Weitzer is a sports journalist with a Masters from Boston University’s College of Communication. When he’s not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.