Scouting the NBA – 11/9/17

 

Plays of the Day

 

Value: Ryan Anderson is a solid value tonight since Cleveland’s coughed up the most 3PTM per game (13.4) at the highest percentage (.419%) this season and the Rockets is posting the best effective FG percentage (.590%) of his career right now.

Fade: DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis continue to pile up huge stat lines, but their price tags are rising accordingly, and Boogie is particularly risky to target against a Raptors team that can hold its own down low.   

 

Point Guard

 

De’Aron Fox – (4,900 DK/5,400 FD)

It’s preferable to roll with James Harden at PG where eligible on DK, or find other values on FanDuel tonight because there are several non-traditional PGs worth paying up for in LeBron James, Ben Simmons and Harden. Fox is a nice source of salary relief with a decent floor-ceiling combination that’s heightened by his matchup, as he faces the turnover-prone young Sixers at home. The rookie’s sporting an impressive 34.2% assist rate and averaging 10 assists per 100 possessions, while he starred as a defender in college and should be able to pile up steals as the season progresses.

 

Potential Value

 

T.J. McConnell – (5,000 DK/5,400 FD)

McConnell will be forced to fill in for the Sixers with Jerryd Bayless (wrist) and Markelle Fultz (shoulder) ruled out.

 

Longshot

 

John Wall – (9,500 DK/10,000 FD)

Wall didn’t flash much upside in a matchup with the Lakers earlier this season but he could have a huge game at home tonight.

 


Shooting Guards

James Harden – (10,700 DK/11,200 FD)

Taking Harden tonight against the worst rated defense in the league is an obvious choice tonight. He dropped a career-high 56 points against the fourth-ranked Jazz defense on Monday and remains relatively affordable on DK. Cleveland’s hemorrhaging FPs to all positions and the backcourt in particular, as the Cavs allow the most APG (11.27) to opposing PGs and sixth-most PPG (25) to opposing SGs this season. Harden plays a combination of the two as the primary scorer and facilitator for a Rockets team that is ranked fourth in offensive rating.

J.J. Redick – (4,600 DK/4,900 FD)

Redick played 35 minutes in a win at Utah and is averaging 32.4 MPG, which is a marked jump from the 28.2 MPG he logged with the Clippers last year. He’s more involved as a playmaker as well with a 15.4% assist rate and draws a good matchup tonight against a Kings team that ranks 22nd in opponents three-point shooting (.373%) this season. Redick averaged 21 PPG on 52.6% FG shooting over three meetings with Sacramento last year and comes into this contest 11-for-19 from deep over his last two games.

 

Potential Value

 

Dwyane Wade – (4,700 DK/4,700 FD)

Wade remains a bit under priced as the primary scorer off the bench for a Cavs team that needs to find offense somewhere while its defense continues to struggle.

 

Longshot

 

Eric Gordon – (6,500 DK/6,300 FD)

Gordon is actually a very safe play against the weak Cavs defense tonight and he has enough upside to warrant GPP consideration as well.

 

Small Forwards

 

LeBron James – (10,800 DK/11,800 FD)

At $600 cheaper on DK than he was on Tuesday night, LeBron is an easy choice to pair with James Harden for a superstar stack in Houston tonight. With a 228-point Over/Under and the Rockets (-5) slightly favored, this is a contest to target on both sides of the ball and even though Houston’s posted a much better defensive rating, the Rockets still have no answer for King James along with the rest of the NBA. His improved post game will make it brutal for skinny Trevor Ariza to try and stop him and despite the Cavs overall struggles, LeBron’s been transcendent with a career-best .673% true shooting percentage and 45.8% assist rate.


Robert Covington – (5,500 DK/6,400 FD)

It’s hard to recommend Redick based on his three-point shooting prowess and ignore Covington in the same matchup. The Sixers wing is 14-for-25 from deep over his last three appearances and has a much higher floor than Redick with averages of 5.7 RPG and 1.5 SPG on the season. His responsibilities increased a bit with Joel Embiid resting on Monday, and he came through with a double double, but that’s not outside of the realm of possibilities in a fast-paced matchup at the Kings tonight.

Potential Value

Jerami Grant – (3,400 DK/4,100 FD)

Grant is a low-upside punt play to consider as his athleticism will be needed in a matchup against the young Nuggets.

 

Longshot

 

Otto Porter – (6,700 DK/6,700 FD)

Porter mysteriously disappeared down the stretch in his last meeting with the Lakers, but is quite capable of producing against an inexperienced team that’s on the second half of a road B2B set.

 


Power Forwards

 

Ben Simmons – (9,000 DK/9,900 FD)

The Sixers big names are very appealing tonight against a Kings team that’s been brutal on both sides of the ball this year. Sacramento gives up the seventh-most APG (9.10) to opposing PGs this season and Simmons is running the show for Philly with a 36.1% assist rate. He’s an excellent rebounder with his 7-foot wingspan and the defensive stats are starting to come for Simmons, who has topped 51 DK points in four of his last five outings.

 

Ryan Anderson – (4,400 DK/4,300 FD)

Again there are two games that really beg to be targeted tonight and one involves a Cavs team that’s ranked 30th in defensive rating but third in offensive rating to produce games with tons of DFS goodness. Cleveland’s coughed up the most 3PTM per game (13.4) at the highest percentage (.419%) this season and Anderson’s a sharpshooter, who is posting the best effective FG percentage (.590%) of his career right now. He matches up well against
 

Potential Value

Julius Randle – (4,800 DK/4,500 FD)

Randle dropped a double double and was the best big on the floor for the Lakers last night, so perhaps he’ll earn more playing time ahead of this matchup.

 

Longshot

 

Markieff Morris – (4,400 DK/4,500 FD)

Like his twin brother, Markieff should start to see more playing time as the season progresses and he could exceed value in a plus matchup against the Lakers.

 

Center

 

Nikola Jokic – (8,600 DK/10,000 FD)

Another under priced star on DK, Jokic is somehow cheaper than he was on Tuesday after posting a monstrous line with a career-high 41 points against the Nets. Oklahoma City’s a far superior defensive club, but Jokic averaged 19.7 PPG, 9.3 RPG and 5.3 APG over three meetings against slower center Steven Adams last year. It took a couple of weeks for him to gel with new frontcourt mate Paul Millsap, but The Joker seems to be hitting his stride as the point center of a very good offensive club.

 

Potential Value

Jonas Valanciunas – (4,900 DK/4,900 FD)

JoVal is beginning to round a corner after missing time with an ankle injury, as he managed a double double over 21 minutes in his last appearance.

 

Longshot

 

Joel Embiid – (9,000 DK/9,600 FD)

Embiid draws the best matchup imaginable for a talented young center but his minutes restriction creates some concerns for a player at this price tag. 

About Nate Weitzer 97 Articles
Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He’s been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA advice while continuing to build his bankroll on several sites. He is also a season-long king and has won several leagues over the years.Weitzer is a sports journalist with a Masters from Boston University’s College of Communication. When he’s not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.