Scouting the NBA 12/28/17

Oct 30, 2017; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks center Kristaps Porzingas (7) takes a shot while being defended by Denver Nuggets forward Wilson Chandler (21) during the second half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

 

Plays of the Day

 

Value: Terry Rozier is a quintessential Celtics player right now and he’s seeing extended run with Jaylen Brown (knee) and Marcus Morris (knee) out. If both players sit tonight against the fast-paced Rockets, look for Rozier to exceed value once again.

Fade: Ben Simmons is really struggling to produce offensively as teams adjust to his inability to shoot the ball. Portland ranks third in defensive rating this year and should do a good job of corralling the limited PG to hold him in check.

 

Point Guard

 

Ish Smith – (4,900 DK/5,500 FD)

Smith will take over as the Pistons starting PG over the next month with Reggie Jackson (ankle) out and he’s an easy value option tonight against a Magic team that gives up the most FPPG (50.59) to opposing PGs this season.

 Damian Lillard ($8.4k, $8.8k) definitively under priced after missing a couple games with a hamstring injury and Lillard is apparently ready to go full throttle in an appealing matchup against the fast-paced Sixers. Give him a look as a strong tournament play. T.J. McConnell ($4.2k, $4.6k) is a great value on the other side of the ball in that game since he should be tasked with guarding either Lillard or C.J. McCollum for extended minutes.

Eric Bledsoe ($7.1k, $7.3k) is a solid cash option against the smaller Jeff Teague and Chris Paul ($8.8k, $9.8k) would become a great GPP play on DK if he’s able to return from his injury for a showdown against the Celtics.

Also, Elfrid Payton ($6.8k, $7.4k) is a good bet for production as one of the few starters left standing for Orlando.

 

Shooting Guard

Terry Rozier – (4,300 DK/3,700 FD)

Another great value at the guard position, Rozier should see extended run tonight against the high-scoring Rockets as long as Jaylen Brown (knee) is unable to return. The second-year man has produced 31 points, 11 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals/blocks over his last two appearances to exceed value by a wide margin in both.

James Harden ($11.4k, $12.5k) simply isn’t worth his price tag on FD, but he’s a solid option on DK, especially if Chris Paul sits this game out.

You can use Reggie Bullock ($4.0k, $4.4k) and Stanley Johnson ($4.1k, $4.6k) as low-cost options for the shorthanded Pistons while Avery Bradley (groin) remains out.

 

Small Forward

 

Tobias Harris – (6,600 DK/7,400 FD)

He’s never a reliable option, but you can count on Harris bringing the motivation into a road game at his former team in Orlando. It certainly helps to note that the Magic play at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA and have given up a whopping 111.4 PPG since November 1, while they could be missing PF Aaron Gordon (calf) and will be without Nikola Vucevic (hand) tonight.

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10.9k, $11.9k) continues to get cheaper on DK and he’s definitely worth a look in cash games at this price tag. He’s more reliable than Ben Simmons at this point in their respective careers, since the Sixers combo guard can’t shoot whatsoever.

Jayson Tatum ($5.5k, $5.7k) remains a reliable option with Marcus Morris (knee) out and Jaylen Brown (knee) questionable tonight.

P.J. Tucker ($4.7k, $4.8k) should see a bump in playing time and grab a few more rebounds with Clint Capela (face) out for Houston.

 

Power Forward

Kristaps Porzingis – (7,900 DK/9,300 FD)

While this game could get out of hand with the Knicks (+11.5) checking in as heavy underdogs in San Antonio, Porzingis has a great chance to exceed value at a modest price tag on DK. LaMarcus Aldridge is an average defender and obviously The Unicorn has a versatile skill set that makes him a tough cover for any team, even the disciplined Spurs.

Aaron Gordon ($7.6k, $7.4k) appears close to making a return and he’d be worth a look in any format tonight if he starts and likely carries the offense with Vucevic out indefinitely.

Dario Saric ($6.0k, $6.2k) shot the ball very poorly on Christmas but will pay solid dividends at this price tag if he can find the range in Portland. Al-Farouq Aminu ($4.8k, $4.6k) is a solid value in that game against the Sixers.

 

 

Center

 

Karl-Anthony Towns – (8,900 DK/10,000 FD)

This is the position at which you must pay up tonight and it probably makes sense to spring for two elite centers on DK with Joel Embiid ($9.6k, $10.7k) and Andre Drummond ($9.4k, $9.5k) also possessing monstrous upside as double double threats. Towns faces the weakest rebounding team on the slate, as the Bucks are giving up the second-most RPG (16.47) and fourth-most FPPG (55.53) to opposing centers this season.

Al Horford ($7.1k, $7.3k) is a sneaky contrarian play to consider against a Rockets team that will be without its starting center, while Bismack Biyombo  ($4.6k, $5.5k) is the best punt play to consider as Orlando’s starter with Vucevic out.

 

 

About Nate Weitzer 128 Articles
Nate Weitzer is a successful DFS player with numerous tournament wins in NBA and NFL contests. He’s been writing about DFS for several years, specializing in NBA advice while continuing to build his bankroll on several sites. He is also a season-long king and has won several leagues over the years.Weitzer is a sports journalist with a Masters from Boston University’s College of Communication. When he’s not playing DFS, Weitzer is often covering high school sports in the greater Boston area for outlets such as The Boston Globe or playing basketball himself. Follow Nate on Twitter @Nweitzer7.