Scouting The NBA – 12/4/17

Plays of the Day

Value: Mason Plumlee produced 12 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists over 31 minutes in a start against the Lakers. With The Joker ruled out Monday, Plumlee stands to meet or exceed value in another plus matchup, as the Mavericks allow the sixth-most APG (4.33) and eighth-most RPG (16.29) to opposing centers this year.

Fade: LeBron James continues to dominate in another MVP-worthy campaign, but the Cavs (-9) should be even more heavily favored tonight against a Bulls team with the worst record in the NBA, so LBJ might take this game as an opportunity to get some rest down the stretch.

 

Point Guards

Jrue Holiday – (6,300 DK/6,700 FD)

The popular and seemingly obvious play with Anothony Davis (groin) out is center DeMarcus Cousins, while Holiday might slip under the radar as an under priced guard with plenty of upside. His usage rate rises to 23.6 percent and he averages 0.53 points per minute with AD off the floor this season and Holiday’s been consistent regardless with double-digit points in 10 consecutive games. He’s facing a Warriors team tonight that’s on the second half of a B2B set and always plays with enough pace to help opposing players meet value whenever their games stay close.

 

Tomas Satoransky – (4,100 DK/4,800 FD)

Apparently, Tim Frazier’s stint as the fill-in starter with John Wall (knee) on the shelf will be short lived, as Satoransky has played circles around the initial starter. The 6-foot-7 guard combined for 29 points and 12 assists over 52 minutes of run in his last two appearances and draws a plus matchup tonight in Utah. The Jazz defense has been poor on the perimeter all year since adding Ricky Rubio and the absence of Rudy Gobert (knee) makes them far more vulnerable down low, potentially providing Satoransky with a clear lane to the basket in this matchup.

 

Potential Value

Jarrett Jack – (3,900 DK/4,800 FD)

Jack continues to provide veteran leadership and solid production as the Knicks PG and could see an expanded role with the Knicks two leading scorers out tonight.

Longshot

Elfrid Payton – (6,000 DK/7,400 FD)

Payton is a bit under priced now that he’s back from his hamstring issue and he could face backup PG Michael Carter-Williams if Kemba Walker (shoulder) can’t go.

 

Shooting Guards

Devin Booker – (7,800 DK/7,000 FD)

The contest in Philly is clearly worth targeting with a 228-point over/under and Booker is clearly the player to target in a Suns uniform. The sharpshooter stayed hot with 38 points over 39 minutes against Boston’s top-rated defense on Sunday and he draws a plus matchup tonight against a Sixers team that gives up the eighth-most PPG (23.57) to opposing SGs this year. He’s also seemingly under priced on both main DFS sites.

 

Dwyane Wade – (5,600 DK/6,500 FD)

Wade remains a solid mid-tier option and he deserves strong consideration tonight as he faces his hometown Bulls. While he played for the franchise last year, the Chicago native should remain motivated to show out for friends and family and it certainly helps to face a rebuilding team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating this year. The veteran certainly isn’t pressing as the leader of the Cavs second unit and it’s led to proficient FG shooting (52.7%) over his last six appearances while scoring in double figures in each of those games.

 

Potential Value

Jamal Murray – (5,100 DK/5,600 FD)

The Nuggets offense is shifting with Nikola Jokic (ankle) out and that contributed to Murray dropping 28 points in a win over the Lakers on Saturday.

 

Longshot

Donovan Mitchell – (6,900 DK/7,500 FD)

Sleep on electric rookie Donovan Mitchell at your own risk, because he’s the real deal and remains the main source of offense for a struggling Jazz team.

 

Small Forwards

Kelly Oubre Jr. – (5,100 DK/4,900 FD)

This is still a position at which you can save, especially if you target teams that are dealing with injuries to some of their star players. Oubre Jr. cooled off a bit with 8 points on 2-of-10 FG shooting in a win over Detroit but he should bounce back tonight against a Jazz team that ranks 23rd in opponents’ 3PT shooting (.375%) this season. Utah’s vulnerable on the wing and Oubre is a talented young scorer capable of slashing for hoops or knocking down open looks when the defense rotates towards Bradley Beal.  

 

Michael Beasley – (3,500 DK/5,000 FD)

With Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (leg) out, the Knicks put their fate in the hands of the mercurial Michael Beasley, and he rewarded them by going 10-of-19 from the floor for 21 points in a close loss on Sunday. You have to like a volume shooter with no conscious in this price range, as Beasley’s sporting a 23.7 percent usage rate and averaging 0.45 points per minute with both The Unicorn and THJ off the floor this season. The Pacers give up the eighth-most PPG (108.3) and rank 28th in opponent’s 2PT shooting (.534%) this year, so Beasley will definitely be worth a look along with center Enes Kanter ($6.8k, $6.2k) in a plus matchup tonight with the Knicks desperate for scoring options. 

 

Potential Value

Luke Babbitt – (4,000 DK/4,500 FD)

Seemingly over his back issue, Babbitt is a good bet for production while playing a full slate of minutes against the porous Nets defense.

 

Longshot

David Bertans – (3,000 DK/3,500 FD)

Bertans could serve as a true punt play if Kyle Anderson (knee) and Rudy Gay (heel) both remain out for the Spurs.

 


Power Forwards

Ben Simmons – (9,800 DK/10,500 FD)

T.J. McConnell (shoulder) appears unlikely to return anytime soon from an AC joint sprain and that’s forced even more on Simmons’ plate. The likely Rookie of the Year after “red-shirting” last season, he averages 1.21 FPs per minute with McConnell of the floor and is rocking an impressive 31.7 percent assist arte overall. Phoenix allows the most FPPG (52.96) and third-most RPG (7.04) to opposing PGs, and Simmons is obviously an elite rebounder for a guard at 6-foot-10 with a wingspan of over seven feet. 

 

Aaron Gordon – (7,900 DK/8,400 FD)

Despite struggling on Sunday afternoon against the Knicks, Gordon should be able to dominate the Hornets PF duo of Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky while continuing to show off his improved three-point stroke. He was 15-for-30 from downtown and 30-for-56 from the field over his three appearances prior to an of game Sunday afternoon. Charlotte is giving up the fifth-most RPG (13.08) and tenth-most FPPG (47.75) to opposing PFs over the last month and Gordon went for 17 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 defensive stats in a meeting with the Hornets earlier this season.

 

Potential Value

Kenneth Faried – (4,800 DK/5,500 FD)

Faried is seeing consistent run with Nikola Jokic out and faces a Mavericks team that’s been well below average in the rebounding department.

 

Longshot

Dario Saric – (5,600 DK/6,400 FD)

Saric is snapping out of his prolonged funk and couldn’t ask for a better matchup at home tonight against the Suns.

 

 

Centers

Dwight Howard – (7,700 DK/7,400 FD)

Orlando’s starting center Nikola Vucevic is a particularly poor defender with a subpar 15.4 percent total rebounding rate this season. Howard averaged 13.8 PPG and 13.8 RPG over four meetings with the Magic last year and this year he’s playing with renewed energy to post a 25.6 percent usage rate and 32.2 percent defensive rebounding rate. D12 is an easy bet to produce a double double in a matchup against the fast-paced Magic.

 

Mason Plumlee – (4,300 DK/5,800 FD)

An obvious value option on DK, Plumlee should continue to fill in at center Nikola Jokic (ankle) on the shelf after producing 12 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists over 31 minutes in a start against the Lakers. With The Joker ruled out Monday, Plumlee stands to meet or exceed value in another plus matchup, as the Mavericks allow the sixth-most APG (4.33) and eighth-most RPG (16.29) to opposing centers this year. Plumlee is a capable passer, who averaged 5.1 assists per 36 minutes during his last full year as a starter in Portland, so he’s a strong play in this price range.

 

Potential Value

Enes Kanter – (6,200 DK/6,600 FD)

Kanter remains a good bet for increased production with Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. out.

 

Longshot

DeMarcus Cousins – (11,000 DK/11,000 FD)

Cousins is definitely worth paying up for in some GPPs despite drawing a potentially difficult matchup against the small-ball Warriors.

 

Louis Cangiano
About Louis Cangiano 88 Articles
Louis Cangiano (NBA, NFL, MLB) has been an avid DFS player since his freshman year of college where he attended the University of Rhode Island. Louie’s major wins include 6th place at the DraftKings 2016 WFBBC in Toronto and 34th place at the 2017 FanDuel WFBC in Miami. Now a three-time live finalist, Louis is a full-time DFS professional residing in New York City, specializing in MLB, NBA and NFL GPP plays.