Scouting The NBA – 12/6/17

Plays of the Day

Value: Ersan Ilyasova is the best bet for frontcourt production with both John Collins (shoulder) and Dewayne Dedmon (leg) out over the next couple of weeks. Luke Babbitt continues to struggle with a back injury and Mike Muscala (ankle) has been ruled out, so even if he draws a tough matchup against strong young Aaron Gordon, Ersan has a great chance to meet value. Orlando gives up the third-most FPPG (50.59) to opposing PFs this season and has been horrendous overall on the defensive end.

Fade: LeBron James failed to meet value in an easy win over Chicago and faces another inferior opponent at home tonight in the Kings. You can probably avoid paying up for him at this lofty price tag.

 

Point Guards

Elfrid Payton – (6,500 DK/7,600 FD)

Payton could wind up outscoring his adversary in Dennis Schorder at a much cheaper price tag on DK tonight. He’s over his hamstring injury and producing with averages of 14.9 PPG, 6.3 APG and 5.1 RPG over his last seven appearances. While not as porous as Orlando’s defense, Atlanta ranks 26th in defensive rating and gives up the sixth-most PPG (108.6) this year. The Hawks also give up the third-most APG (28.6) and Payton is dominating dimes on his team with a career-high 37.5 percent assist rate thus far.

 

Rajon Rondo – (5,500 DK/6,000 FD)

Rondo is playing a full slate of minutes and that’s resulted in him routinely exceeding value. He should continue to feed DeMarcus Cousins for easy assists and might have Anthony Davis (back) for a matchup against the Nikola Jokic-less Nuggets tonight. Denver ranks 22nd in defensive rating and 29th in opponents FG shooting (48%), which bodes well for Rondo’s ability to crave up another unit in a fast-paced contest at home.

 

Potential Value

Jamal Murray – (5,100 DK/5,400 FD)

Murray is seeing increased usage with Nikola Jokic (ankle) on the shelf.

 

Longshot

Jrue Holiday – (6,600 DK/7,100 FD)

Holiday will remain a strong cash play and could be worth a look in any format if Anthony Davis (groin) misses another game.

 


Shooting Guards

Victor Oladipo – (8,900 DK/9,400 FD)

The Bulls defense has been pitiful and shouldn’t be expected to improve anytime soon, making this road tilt against the fast-paced Pacers a great game to target on a full slate. Oladipo is posting a career-high 30 percent usage rate with his best shooting percentage (.483%) this year and shouldn’t have much trouble ripping through a Bulls team that ranks 25th in opponents FG shooting (47%) this year. Dipo went for 25 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists in a meeting with Chicago earlier this season and is rolling right now while shooting 58 percent over his last five outings.

 

Andrew Wiggins – (6,700 DK/6,100 FD)

Lou Williams is drawing all the attention for carrying the Clippers offense in the absence of Blake Griffin (knee), but an overlooked factor is the Clips deteriorating defense with Lou-Will on the floor next to Austin Rivers for extended minutes. Wiggins and fellow guards Jeff Teague and Jimmy Butler are all worth a look in GPP formats since they may match up against Williams, one of the worst defenders in the league. The Clippers are now allowing the most FPPG (45.26) to opposing SGs this season and Wiggy is capable of piling up points with the best of them. 

 

Potential Value

Danny Green – (4,600 DK/4,500 FD)

Green should see plenty of usage and minutes with Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Anderson ruled out for the Spurs.

 

Longshot

Nic Batum – (5,700 DK/6,500 FD)

Batum is ramping up and there’s a chance he holds his own tonight against Kevin Durant and the Warriors.

 

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant – (10,100 DK/10,000 FD)

While he won’t necessarily force the issue now that he’s within a significantly more balanced offensive system, we could see Kevin Durant play like he used to as a superstar in OKC with Steph Curry on the shelf. He posts a 33.2 percent usage rate and averages 1.35 FPs per minute with Steph off the floor this year and is taking on a Hornets team that’s vulnerable on the wing with Nic Batum (elbow) clearly not back to full speed.

 

Andre Iguodala – (4,100 DK/4,000 FD)

Iguodala could serve as an unconventional PG for at least one game with Shaun Livingston suspended in addition to Curry’s injury. He sees a two percent rise in usage with those players off the floor and is averaging 8.6 points, 5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per 36 minutes this year. Due to these circumstances, Iggy could play over 30 minutes tonight and he’s facing a Hornets team that gives up the fifth-most FPPG (43.65) to opposing SFs this season.
 

Potential Value

Rudy Gay – (5,200 DK/6,200 FD)

Gay produced a double double over 32 minutes on Monday and will clearly play a bigger role with Kyle Anderson (knee) out and Kawhi still a few days away from returning.

 

Longshot

Lance Stephenson – (4,400 DK/4,500 FD)

His production’s been steady and Lance could find plenty of room to operate tonight against the Bulls porous defense.


Power Forwards

LaMarcus Aldridge – (8,100 DK/8,300 FD)

Aldridge will have to carry the Spurs offense for a few more games until Kawhi Leonard returns from his mysterious quad injury. Miami has a great defensive reputation but is far more vulnerable down low when Hassan Whiteside is unavailable, and actually gave up the most FPPG (58.22) and PPG (27.75) to opposing PFs this past week. Aldridge is averaging 26 PPG on lights out 53.3 percent FG shooting over his last five appearances and is a great bet to lead the Spurs in scoring at home.

 

Ersan Ilyasova – (4,800 DK/5,300 FD)

While he was strangely ineffective in a 20-point loss to Brooklyn on Monday, Ilyasova remains the Hawks best bet for frontcourt production with both John Collins (shoulder) and Dewayne Dedmon (leg) out over the next couple of weeks. Luke Babbitt continues to struggle with a back injury and Mike Muscala (ankle) has been ruled out, so even if he draws a tough matchup against strong young Aaron Gordon, Ersan has a great chance to meet value. Orlando gives up the third-most FPPG (50.59) to opposing PFs this season and has been horrendous overall on the defensive end.

 

Potential Value

Kenneth Faried – (5,000 DK/5,600 FD)

Faried’s become a relatively safe play with Jokic on the shelf and would benefit if Anthony Davis can’t play tonight.

 

Longshot

Aaron Gordon – (8,100 DK/8,300 FD)

Gordon is a strong play on the other side of the ball as he prepares to match up against Ilyasova.

 

Centers

Andre Drummond – (9,100 DK/9,500 FD)

The best player on the Pistons, Drummond draws another juicy matchup tonight in facing the Bucks for the third time this year. He averaged 18.5 PPG and 15.5 RPG over two meetings with Milwaukee so far this season and obviously stands to dominate a front line that only features skinny John Henson and young Thon Maker as options at center. The Bucks rank dead last in total rebounding as a result of that questionable roster construction and Drummond leads the league at 15 RPG.

 

Mason Plumlee – (4,700 DK/5,800 FD)

Plumlee was eventually forced off the court and failed to meet value over 19 minutes against the Mavs on Monday, but he is still a solid value on DK. His price tag remains low ahead of a matchup that could lead to boom-bust results considering he’ll likely get into foul trouble or play far more minutes in a matchup against DeMarcus Cousins and the Pelicans. Especially if Anthony Davis returns, Plumlee and Kenneth Faried will be forced to play next to each other for long stretchs as Denver looks to match up with New Orleans down low.

 

Potential Value

Willy Hernangomez – (3,600 DK/3,900 FD)

Hernangomez could continue to thrive if the Knicks are missing franchise centerpiece Kristaps Porzingis (ankle).

 

Longshot

Marc Gasol – (8,000 DK/8,500 FD)

Conversely, Gasol could benefit if Porzingis is out and the Knicks are shorthanded down low.

 

Louis Cangiano
About Louis Cangiano 88 Articles
Louis Cangiano (NBA, NFL, MLB) has been an avid DFS player since his freshman year of college where he attended the University of Rhode Island. Louie’s major wins include 6th place at the DraftKings 2016 WFBBC in Toronto and 34th place at the 2017 FanDuel WFBC in Miami. Now a three-time live finalist, Louis is a full-time DFS professional residing in New York City, specializing in MLB, NBA and NFL GPP plays.