Scouting The NBA – 10/23/17

Plays of the Day

Value: Dillon Brooks followed up his breakout game with a solid line (9 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, steal, block) over 32 minutes against the Warriors despite battling foul trouble. Clearly the rookie’s role is secure ahead of a matchup against similarly fast-paced Houston.

Fade: James Harden is quite expensive once again and might not be worth the money in a brutal matchup against the defensively sound Grizzlies. He’s averaging 19.2 PPG in his career against Memphis and will see tons of attention in PnR sets while elite defender Marc Gasol prevents him from throwing easy lobs to Clint Capela for assists.

 

Point Guards

Steph Curry – (8,700 DK/9,200 FD) – He’s far more appealing at a very reasonable price tag on DK, where you also get a bonus for each 3PTM. Curry really started to heat up late on his way to a game-high 37 points on 9-of-17 FG shooting (6-of-11 from 3PT range) in a loss at Memphis on Saturday and that was enough for him to exceed value. He remains quite cheap ahead of a matchup against undersized guards J.J. Barea and Yogi Ferrell or a hobbled Dennis Smith Jr. (knee), making the former MVP well worth the investment.

Mike Conley – (7,700 DK/7,900 FD) -With Patrick Beverley in a Clippers uniform and Chris Paul (knee) on the shelf, Houston’s soft perimeter defense is much more vulnerable and a capable PG like Conley should carve them up in a fast-paced contest. Houston ranks 29th in opponent’s 3PT shooting (.440%) and has given up the third-most APG (24) in the NBA thus far, so Conley will likely find shooters all evening while improving on his own scoring line after struggling with his shot in a win over Golden State on Saturday.

Potential Value

Jerryd Bayless – (4,000 DK/4,300FD) – Bayless is getting starters’ minutes while rookie Markelle Fultz learns the ropes and is making the most of his opportunities thus far.

Longshot

Reggie Jackson – (5,800 DK/6,800 FD) – Jackson is still a bit underpriced given his high-usage role as a creator for the Pistons.

 

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal – (7,300DK/8,000FD) – The Wizards offense clearly runs through Wall and Beal, while the latter remains the more affordable at a more difficult position to fill. He’s dropped 25 points in consecutive games to open the season and is surprisingly contributing defensively with 10 boards, 4 blocks and 3 steals during that span. Tonight he’ll face a Nuggets team that’s allowed the third-most FPPG (42.72) to opposing SGs over the last two seasons and Beal averaged 24.5 PPG over two meetings with Denver last year. At the very least, he’s a high-floor play worth deploying in cash games.

J.J. Barea – (5,000DK/5,000FD) – He’s not a great consideration and a stacked PG position on FanDuel tonight, so perhaps Wes Matthews ($4800) is the preferred choice at SG on FD, while Barea can plug into your lineups at either guard spot on DK. The Mavs are banged up with Seth Curry (leg) out, while Dennis Smith Jr. (knee) and Devin Harris (personal) are questionable, leaving Barea and Yogi Ferrell to log the bulk of minutes in the backcourt. Ferrell is getting more run, but the veteran is far more trustworthy in a matchup against the defending champs since he’s so experienced and never backs down from a challenge. With 28 points, 13 dimes and 4 3PTM over 2 appearances since Smith Jr. became inactive on Friday, Barea’s established a solid floor.

Potential Value

Marco Belinelli – (3,900 DK/3,900 FD) – Belinelli is a sharpshooter, who just needs an opportunity to fire away and the Hawks are giving him one this season.

Longshot

Devin Booker – (6,800 DK/7,200 FD) – Booker has tremendous upside in a battle between inept defensive teams out in Phoenix, and he could lead a Suns team that will rally around an interim coach after Earl Watson’s quick firing.

 

 

Small Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo – (10,900 DK/12,200 FD) -Giannis is leading the NBA at 38.3 PPG and filling up the stat sheet as per usual with 29 boards, 15 assists and 8 steals (also a league best) through 3 games. He was clutch down the stretch in a win over Portland on Saturday and faces a Hornets team tonight that will be without top defender Nic Batum (elbow) and young wing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (personal). Antetokounmpo averaged 20.3 PPG on 57.8% FG shooting over 3 meetings against Charlotte with Batum in the lineup last year and Charlotte’s struggling to defending opposing centers so far, indicating a lack of length that will make it tough to stop the rangy and versatile young stud.

Dillon Brooks – (4,600 DK/4,400 FD) – Brooks continued his solid NBA debut by fearlessly attacking the rim, defending and going toe-to-toe with the defending champions to help Memphis earn a home win over Golden State on Saturday. Grizzlies HC David Fizdale is giving him such steady run because the rookie’s been such a pleasant surprise and Brooks followed up his breakout game with a solid line (9 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, steal, block) over 32 minutes against the Warriors despite battling foul trouble. Clearly his role is secure ahead of a matchup against similarly fast-paced Houston.

Potential Value

Kelly Oubre Jr. – (4,200 DK/5,300 FD) – Oubre is often the first man of the bench for Washington and he’s seeing heavy usage with the Wizards second unit.

Longshot

Tobias Harris – (6,200 DK/6,800 FD) – Harris bounced back in a plus matchup against the Knicks on Saturday and he’s in an even better spot tonight at home against the Sixers.

Power Forwards

Ben Simmons – (7,700 DK/8,000 FD) – Simmons and Giannis are both pricey on FanDuel (and only available as PFs) for good reason, as they’ve been consistently piling up peripheral stats and can’t shoot jumpers anyways, so there’s no real concern about a cold shooting night destroying their value. The Sixers rookie is averaging 15.7 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 6 APG with plenty of potential for defensive stats with his 6-foot-10 frame and 7-foot wingspan. Unlike teammate Joel Embiid, Simmons is not playing while wrapped in caution tape as he’s played 33-plus minutes in his first few career games and tonight he draws a matchup against Detroit that’s not particularly intimidating.

James Johnson – (6,300 DK/5,900 FD) – Hassan Whiteside (knee) might be cleared to return to action tonight, but if he remains out, Johnson would likely see around 30 minutes as he did on Saturday. Even in just 19 minutes in his season debut, the peripheral stat stud produced 11 points, 8 assists and 4 rebounds to exceed value and he draws a plus matchup tonight against a Hawks team that moved on from underrated defender Paul Millsap. Atlanta’s giving up 21 PPG and 50.63 FPPG to opposing PFs so far this season and Johnson is Miami’s best rebounder aside from Whiteside.

Potential Value

Kyle Kuzma – (4,900 DK/4,800 FD) – The Lakers continue to experiment with a bunch of new pieces and Kuzma could get more run than the 18 minutes he played to meet value in his NBA debut last night.

Longshot

Ben Simmons – (7,500 DK/7,700 FD) – Another extremely promising rookie, Simmons is a great tournament play at PG/SF on DK and has a solid floor on FD given his well-rounded output in his season debut.

Center

Dwight Howard – (6,700 DK/7,400 FD) – Howard has grabbed a matching 15 boards in each of his first two appearances with Milwaukee and he’s on pace for a career-best 36.1% defensive rebounding rate. The Bucks biggest weakness is down low, where they rotate unproven young bigs in John Henson and Thon Maker. Howard averaged 15.3 PPG and 11 RPG over 3 meetings with Milwaukee last season and Milwaukee ranks 22nd in rebounding so far this year.

Lucas Nogueira – (4,000 DK/5,000 FD) – He’s likely to start tonight with Jonas Valanciunas (ankle) ruled out and Nogueira is clearly a stark value on DK that can help you afford studs at other positions. While he’s quite limited offensively, the Brazilian native was on pace 22.5 points, 20.3 rebounds, 4.5 steals and 4.5 blocks per 36 minutes in his first appearance this year and 2.9 blocks per 36 minutes last season, so his value is found on the defensive end of the floor, where he’ll be needed to slow down the surging LaMarcus Aldridge. Expectations should be tempered as he prepares to share time with Jakob Poeltl ($4000/$4500), but both players are worth exposure while JoVal is out.

 

Potential Value

Tyson Chandler – (4,000 DK/4,000 FD) – Chandler continues to produce steadily for a horrible team and will be a double double threat if the Suns can keep it close at home against the lowly Kings.

Longshot

Nikola Jokic – (8,300 DK/8,600 FD) – Jokic is due for one of his monstrous lines after opening the season quietly and his versatility should present problems for big Wizards center Marcin Gortat.

 

Louis Cangiano
About Louis Cangiano 88 Articles
Louis Cangiano (NBA, NFL, MLB) has been an avid DFS player since his freshman year of college where he attended the University of Rhode Island. Louie’s major wins include 6th place at the DraftKings 2016 WFBBC in Toronto and 34th place at the 2017 FanDuel WFBC in Miami. Now a three-time live finalist, Louis is a full-time DFS professional residing in New York City, specializing in MLB, NBA and NFL GPP plays.