36 Expert Picks
A team returning home down 0-2 in the series is very much a system play that I have to trust. These Game 3 situations tend to get the group as motivated as they'll ever be to avoid falling into an 0-3 hole. These two teams met last season in the first round. Carolina took the first two games at home, the series went to New York, and the Islanders won Game 3 5-1. I am bumping this down to a .5u play because the way Game 2 ended could just be so demoralizing for the Isles, but I'm expecting a spirited and aggressive effort to make this a series.
Bryce Harper is back from the paternity list and ace Zack Wheeler is on the hill for the Phillies. Anytime I can play the Phils' first five and avoid their still very shaky bullpen is just fine by me. Wheeler took a no-hitter into the eighth inning last time out but that almost doesn't count because it was against the White Sox. He has a 2.98 ERA career vs. the Reds.
End of a seven-game trip for the Brewers so a natural letdown spot ahead of a return home for one of the series of the season vs. the Yankees. A couple of regulars are getting the day off and Christian Yelich remains out injured. Just found out the Pirates are the only team in the majors this season to not lose a game where they scored at least four runs. Starting pitcher Mitch Keller is is 8-4 with a 3.09 ERA in 16 starts at PNC Park since the beginning of last season. That home ERA since the beginning of last year is the ninth-best in all of MLB among pitchers with at least 100.0 innings.
By this point, the White Sox must be feeling like the old Washington Generals, as almost every opponent might as well be the Harlem Globetrotters. It's now losses in 21 of 24, and of the last 18 defeats, 15 of those have been by more than one run. A recovery on Thursday with ex-Brave Michael Soroka on the mound seems remote with Soroka having posted a 7.50 ERA and 1.79 WHIP, and the host Twins looking for a four-game sweep. Minnesota also can't wait for another look at Simeon Woods Richardson, making his first start since April 13 vs. the Tigers, when allowing just one run and two hits in 6 IP of a 4-1 win. Play Twins on Run Line
The Cavaliers took care of business at home, winning the first two games of this series. The Magic were only 18-23 on the road during the regular season. Things now shift to Orlando, where the Magic had a stellar 29-12 home record. These two teams are too evenly matched for the Cavaliers to put the Magic on the brink of being swept. Play the home team to win.
Nestor Cortes Jr. has logged at least seven innings in two of his last three starts. Both of those games came at home, where he had a 1.18 WHIP last year. On the road, he had a 1.35 WHIP. This is a great spot for him to give the Yankees some length again, given that the Athletics have the third-worst OPS in baseball. The Athletics will also likely be without their best hitter Zack Gelof (oblique), who might land on the injured list.
Beena few days since he hit one to the second deck but Alex Wood will give him a chance to duplicate that tonight. The Bronx crowd is loving on Soto every chance it gets and he has two bombs in 17 career ABs against this struggling starter and I smell a pullside HR over the short porch in left. Lefties have a 1.057 OPS vs Wood who is getting smoked but allowing just 3 HRs thus far ... But he ain't in that huge park in Oakland tonight.
Freddy Peralta has been electric and he is anything but a slow starter. He's been on coming out of warms every start this season and this is a lineup he has dealt with in the past. His numbers through the first 5 innings of games have been ridiculous - a 0.90 ERA allowing just 9 hits in 72 batters faced, with an opposing slashline of: .132/.181/.213. That's a 394 OPS, folks. Brewers have been one of MLBs best clutch teams with runners on base and Adames, Contreras, Turang and Wiemers have combined for 4 HRs in 33 career ABs vs Mitch Keller, allowing a .286 BA in innings 1-5 with a 4.68 ERA
Nikola Jokic averaged 26.4 points over 35 minutes per game during the regular season. Now that the playoffs are here, Jokic will spend even more time on the court. He logged at least 39 minutes in both of the first two games of this season. That enabled him to score 32 points in Game 1 and 27 points in Game 2. The Lakers need a win to have any chance of making a comeback in this series, so expect this to be a close battle. That should lead to enough minutes and shot attempts for Jokic to hit this over.
I have some issues with the Phillies bullpen and games can get turned around quickly in this tiny stadium and the Reds have some mashers, but I like the chasm in quality between these starting pitchers and scratching out a few early runs can cash for us here. Wheeler has been special, allowing a .157/.208/.213 slashline in innings 1-5 with a 1.44 ERA. I don't think the Reds starter can keep pace
The Royals are not a big strikeout team, but this is also not a very high total. Berrios has 6 Ks or more in 4 of his 5 starts and he does own the biggest bat in this lineup, getting Sal Perez 9 times in 40 career ABs. Berrios is pitching at a supremely high level, the ball will be tougher to pick up in the daytime and there likely won't be any quick hooks here. Royals offense has been down lately and I'm expecting some - held to 3 runs or less in 4 straight - and expecting some chase early in count with guys pressing. Bottom line is Berrios has ace stuff right now and could go 7+ today
I liked the Knicks going into this series, but it was plain to see that they could have easily lost both of their home games. Now the Sixers get their home crowd and perhaps the benefit of some 'home cooking' from the officials as it was pretty clear there were some missed calls down the stretch of game 2. The Sixers have played very good defense in spurts and that has led to some erratic play from Jalen Brunson among others. I suspect we see more of the same in Game 3. Great spot for the Sixers to pull away.
If the Islanders are going to get one, it figures to be this one. The Canes lost one of their top defenseman, Brett Pesce, to an injury in the Game 2 comeback win. Winger Jesper Fast missed the first two and not expected back. The Isles are giving Ilya Sorokin his first shot in net of the series. He didn't have a typically great year but historically has been money at home. The Islanders are in an identical situation to last year, trailing 2-0 in the series to the Hurricanes, and they responded with a 5-1 win in Game 3 on home ice. The Isles also ended the regular season with five straight road wins. And we don't even need that.
The Islanders might have needed some psychological counseling after blowing a onetime 3-0 during Game 2 at Raleigh, with the last three Canes goals coming in the final 2:15, turning around what had been a very late 3-2 Isles lead. The takeaway from the first two games, however, is that New York is hardly outclassed, as the Islanders have been skating with the Canes. New York also solved Carolina goalie Frederik Andersen, at least to a degree, on Monday, with Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, and Anders Lee all scoring goals. Patrick Roy has made one important switch for tonight, as Ilya Sorokin will be in the Islander goal after Semyon Varmalov likely a bit shell-shocked after Monday's late loss. Play Islanders on Money Line
The Duquesne Incline is moving at a faster speed the past ten days than the Pirates offense, which has scored all of 17 runs across a nine-game span. Seven of those have been losses, including a 3-2 setback to the Brew Crew on Wednesday when Bucs batters could only muster four hits. We don't expect things to get much better on Thursday vs. Freddy Peralta, who has been dynamite early this season and especially so his last two starts vs. the Cards and O's, allowing just 1 run and 9 hits across 12 IP, with 18 Ks and only one walk. The pressure is on Mitch Keller to keep the Bucs close until the later innings. Play Brewers on Money Line