49 Expert Picks
Dodgers got to Zack Thompson a year ago in a relief outing for 2 runs in 2/3 of an inning, Not sure how much longer he will last here, or if he becomes an opener, but he's not good. Dodgers were 7th in MLB in wRC+ vs lefties last season and their elite left-handed bats will get plenty of cracks at righties in this middling STL pen. Dodgers are already more tuned up after trip to Korea and Ohtani seems intent in taking out his recent, um, issues shall we say, on the baseball. Bobby Miller might be the next great Dodgers starter - he has that kind of pedigree, with a ridiculous lineup behind him allowing the kid to pound the zone.
Can't figure this number out but I'm not fighting it. HOU, trying to force way into play-in, just destroyed Utah and dropped 147. HOU 13-1 ATS last 4 with 7 in a row (covering all by 3.5+ points). Vegas keeps low-balling them as they have covered by an average of 9.1 points during those 14 games. UTA is 22-15 ATS at home ... but 2-8 ATS last 10 at home. HOU 2nd in +/- this month (12.1); UTA -10.2 (28th). Maybe I am missing something here but not sure what it is. Rockets injury report looks good, Just beat OKC. Haven't let up against bad teams; instead try to score 130+ on them and run it up. UTA lost 7 in row all by 7+
NYK covered 3 straight big lines lately as they play some of the best ball in the NBA. They are 2nd in net rating and 3rd in +/- (11.0-) this month; SA in 20th net rating. NYK 3rd in road +/- since ASG; SA 21st at home in that span. NYK 10-4 ATS as a road favorite; SA 13-16-1 ATS as home dog. NYK 35-25-1 ATS after day off and barely had to play anyone important in second half of blowout win at TOR. NYK pushing for playoff position and I suspect they bottle up Vassell and SA outside game (7th vs 3 ball since ASG), while also allowed second-fewest points in paint since ASG. Defense travels.
Clippers coach opined recently about their lack of identity and they indeed seem to struggle with who they are what they do best. Defense has really sagged the last 6 weeks or so and they can't cover lately; 1-6 ATS last 7 and 2-8 last 10. Some tough travel lately. ORL hasn't been as stout at home lately (10 points in 1st qtr vs GS) but also haven't failed to cover 3 in a row at home all season. We've made good $ on then at home and they are 24-11 ATS at home; LAC 18-19 on road ATS. I expect Magic to get it together Friday
Splitting my bet between the under and the Ms. The weather should be cold and the pitching rested.
I’m gonna split my bet between the Ms and under. Luis Castillo has been good early in the season, the bullpens are obviously fresh and the Red Sox are simply not great
Basically a push afternoon -- bullpens, man! The Brussels sprouts of baseball: Gross/why even exist? Very much looking forward to us having first five props soon. Brayan Bello can certainly throw six shutout innings here, but that Boston lineup looks really weak overall. Seattle appeared to upgrade its offense this offseason and starts ace Luis Castillo. Note that rain is possible.
It’s the home opener for the World Champs…who for the first time ever reside in Arlington. The crowd plus Nate Evaldi make this a solid play.
Alabama can flat out score. We know that. We don't, however, know if they can beat a top-ranked team (the Tide had only one win over a ranked opponent during the regular season), or slow down North Carolina big man Armando Bacot. I am going to lay the points here and back the Tar Heels, who rank near the top of the country in defensive efficiency.
The Rockies are terrible, again, and are routinely far worse on the road than at home. For example, they were 22-59 on the road last season with a -127 run differential. D-backs ace Zac Gallen will control the Rockies' offense while the D-backs' offense has been injected with power (Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson) to join Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte. Arizona will win and it's hard to see a close game, frankly, so let's ride the run line (-1.5, -105) for better value than the moneyline.
The Cubs were third in the NL in runs last season and there's reason to believe they'll be better this year. The Rangers were the best AL offense by many measures and there are reasons to believe they'll be better. This ballpark is incredibly conducive to offense. Even with two All-Stars starting on the mound, we'll see plenty of scoring, even if it has to happen once the bullpens take over.
There no secret Alabama’s defense is not the greatest. However, they’re going to push the pace to get their points. The Tar Heels went down by 12-points early to Michigan State and fought their way back to an easy cover. Alabama comes off a game where they shot 8-31 from three, so they could be in for some positive regression and if they aren’t falling early, they’re still going to shoot. The Crimson Tide have athletic players down low to compete with Bacot and Ingram to get some much-needed stops.
With chilly temperatures in Seattle and both bullpens fully ready to go, I'm not sure how easy runs will be to come by. Kenley Jansen and Andres Munoz are formidable closers and Seattle especially has some solid setup men. Brayan Bello finished the spring with two outings of five or more innings, allowing only one run in each and Luis Castillo has steadily shown his ace status leading into this season. Despite stumbling to the finish line in 2023, Castillo is undoubtably a star and you may remember he went six shutout innings on Opening Day for the Mariners last year. This game should be at seven instead of 7.5 in my opinion and since we still win at seven runs, I like the under.
Few teams were as impressive as Purdue over the opening weekend, and what the performances — wins of 28 and 39 points — highlighted the surrounding parts that make the Boilermakers a more well-rounded title contender than a year ago. The guards are older, the transfer additions have hit and the team fits well around Edey structurally on both offense and defense. Gonzaga has been playing like a different team since March 1, but Purdue has been playing a higher level all season and that will be on display on Friday night.
There will be some three-point regression from going 14-of-28 from behind the arc in a blitzing effort against JMU, but the fact that the Blue Devils have one of the best catch-and-shoot players around in Jared McCain remains. Duke has shooters that can make an aggressive Houston defense pay when it gambles, and the Cougars can be challenged if it has to keep up with a hot shooting night on the other side. The Blue Devils have not always done a great job maintaining their edge in the wake of strong performances, but if Jon Scheyer can get this team dialed again they’re good enough to win, and definitely cover.