The Ambush – Thanksgiving DFS plays from Steve Renner

NFL DFS - Thanksgiving

Thank you to everyone who sent me some kind thoughts regarding my Father, it did not go un-appreciated and it meant a lot to me.

THANKSGIVING FOOTBAAAAAAAAAL

Was gonna be at the Falcons-Saints game but circumstances changed that, so instead I’ll be able to watch all the football I want on Turkey Day this year which is not the worst trade off and we have what I think will be three pretty good games.

On the Turkey Day slate, you can DEFINITELY still play cash games but you should understand that ownership % should be viewed a little bit more like tournaments on a slate like this.  A pivot off an 80% guy over another 15% guy might not be the worst move on a short slate like this in cash games because we do need something to differentiate.

For tournaments, I would try to avoid the MME if you are doing one main lineup, but also really look at doing two different single entry contests if you want this week to diversify with two lineups.

Let’s first clear up some news and notes on what you need to know on the games tomorrow

 

INJURY NEWS / GAME THEORY

Chicago at Detroit

OUT:  Mitchell Trubisky (Bears), Kerryon Johnson, Marvin Jones (Lions)

Chase Daniel immediately becomes the super value QB play on this slate on both sites as he is $6,000 on FD and $4,400 on DK.  A decent backup QB who really has hardly played much in his long career despite being on some really good teams and having a pretty good career overall.  Daniel used to be someone who was mobile enough to extend plays but likely won’t be doing much of that tomorrow against the Lions.  He is absolutely in play in DFS terms as his salary relief helps you load up on skill position studs and we’re only talking about a major fade off Brees who we can get exposure too through Thomas and Kamara by going Chase Daniel.  He is someone to strongly consider in my mind.

For Detroit, the Kerryon Johnson injury is a bummer and it means we get more LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick this week as Marvin Jones is also out again.  Both are super strong value plays on both sites and expect Theo to be a DK chalk play again this week.

Washington at Dallas

OUT:  Alex Smith, Chris Thompson (Redskins).  Tavon Austin, Geoff Swaim & Sean Lee (Cowboys).  Trent Williams is questionable for Washington

Prior to the Trubisky news it was Colt McCoy who was going to step in as a cheap QB punt play on Turkey Day.  McCoy — who is of course from Texas — will try to fill in for Alex Smith and many think he should have no problem diong such considering Smith isn’t someone dynamic enough to make defenses alter their game plan.  The Dallas defense has been stout of late and should continue to have a good day here today but watch out for Jordan Reed finally breaking out against a team he has had good games against in the past.

Atlanta at New Orleans

OUT:  Deion Lewis (Falcons), Terron Armstead (Saints)

These are the biggest injuries going into this game.  Both Calvin Ridley and Tre’Quan Smith are banged up and are guys that I am likely avoiding here this week.  The Deion Jones injury is the biggest as the NOLA native had some huge games against the Saints and always has picked off Drew Brees.  Without him, expect the Saints to have their way with the Atlanta defense.

 

MY AMBUSH CALLS

RUSHING QB — DAK PRESCOTTImage result for dak prescott animated gif

It’s come down to Matt Stafford and Drew Brees as the Quarterbacks I want to consider for upside this week but neither really stand out as being fantastic 30 point type plays this week.  Brees’ biggest issue is that the Saints are in a fantastic spot to run the ball a ton against Atlanta.  With Ingram, Kamara and Taysom as a three headed monster New Orleans should control the clock and pick up big chunks of yardage against Atlanta on the ground.  Thus I don’t see a 350 yard game for Brees here but make no mistake — it’s a home primetime game for New Orleans against a divisional rival.  Expect Brees to throw it plenty but not have the same type of game he had in Atlatna earlier this year from a DFS perspective.  So, my next big 30 point concern is Stafford and against the Bears the only way I see him destroying that number is if Detroit pulls off a couple HUGE passing plays in this game (the type where he gets 60 yards and a TD on one play TWICE).  And so in that regard I will just get exposure through Golladay.  This leads us to the mix of the rest of the group.   I love the value that Chase Daniel and Colt McCoy bring, but specifically between the two its Chase Daniel all day for me.  However, if I want someone who I think can steal the spotlight today at low ownership then its gotta be DAK PRESCOTT.  If he rushes one in you are gold as he’s going to give you a nice safe score and I think this is the most competitive game of the day with Dallas winning 23-20.

Honorable Mention:  Chase Daniel Drew Brees

 

CANT GUARD MIKEImage result for michael thomas animated gif

Michael Thomas will dominate the Falcons for years until they change their defensive philosphy.  Atlanta likes to play quick and has never been physical enough to stop Michael Thomas and his slant.  The Saints have known this and love to focus their attack through Thomas who in three of the last four meetings has 10 catches a game against Atlanta.  The one he did not was when he got injured in the walk through the night before.  Outside of that Thomas has gone for 10 and 100+ in the other three games the last two seasons.

Lots will jump on Kamara and Brees and might find it hard to fit in Thomas as well, that’s a HUGE mistake in my mind here as with Brees you could legit fade him at his price knowing he would need to throw for 4 TD or rush one in to hit that and I think lots of Saints damage is done on the ground.  But the numbers with Thomas do not lie and he is the guy I want to lock in from New Orleans.

 

Image result for taylor gabriel bears animated gifBEARS 1-2 PUNCH:  TARIK COHEN & TAYLOR GABRIEL

The Bears offense has been really good this season with Trubisky but many feel they take a step back with Chase Daniel.  I see no reason for the Bears to change up their offense today and the offense really does cycle through Gabriel and Cohen when they have big games this season.  Look for Daniel to be able to run everything Trubisky has run this season and the Bears will hit the Lions with a couple big plays from their speedsters on the turf in Detroit today.  I don’t wanna touch the Jordan Howard chalk this week and I think you should 100% avoid it as well and going these two guys from the first game with Kenny G. on the other side is a nice way to get early exposure before passing out and waking up for the nightcap.

 

 

OVERALL RANKINGS

QB:  

  1. Dak Prescott … Dak is my main Lineup #1 QB.  Im looking for 3 total TD with one being a rushing TD.
  2. Chase Daniel … Lineup #2 for me is Chase Daniel and Bears stack
  3. Drew Brees … Most points on the slate but not the best pt/$, so that’s why he is lineup #3 for me
  4. Matt Stafford …. Lineup #4 for me is Stafford-Kenny G

RB:  

  1. Alvin Kamara … RB vs Atlanta.  Duh.  No reason to fade on a main lineup outside of simply fading ownership %.  Short week they could limit him some which I do think will happen, but without Deion Jones Atlanta is really thin here.
  2. Ezekiel Elliott … I don’t mind playing Zeke with Dak.
  3. Tarik Cohen … Detailed him and Gabriel above.
  4. Mark Ingram … TD Variance between him and Kamara at home is impossible to predict these days.  That said, Ingram is 1 TD shy of passing Deuce McAllister for all time leader in Saints history for rushing TD.  Would be a cool gesture to break it at home, so if he scores one early he is getting that second TD late.
  5. Tevin Coleman … Coleman is the main Falcon who should get the most consistent usage this week if they are smart.  You can throw to the RB against New Orleans (not very well) but the way the Saints D-Line has been playing compared to the lack of pass blocking Atlanta will have, it’s the better option to check down underneath and Coleman and Ito Smith should both be involved for [Team who had a Marta Bus troll them], however it’s Coleman getting the PPR volume here.

WR:

  1. Michael Thomas … Atlanta has NOBODY physical and good enough to stop Thomas.  Everyone thinks Kamara is the Falcon killer but the truth is that Thomas is the guy who feasts here on the roasted Falcons.
  2. Kenny Golladay … Only real big play threat in the offense for Detroit.  I don’t wanna touch Blount and Theo Riddick that much, so Kenny G is the guy for me.
  3. Taylor Gabriel … Detailed him above.  He scores
  4. Allen Hurns … Gut feel he scores, but Gallup is a better overall player.  With Cooper likely seeing Norman (who sucks but forces QB to go elsewhere), he and Beasley would see an increase.
  5. Mohamed Sanu … Lattimore will be hyped up to see Julio again and Sanu can create some mis-match problems here.  He was a good play last time they met it was just Ridley who got the big plays.

TE:

  1. Trey Buron … Would pair him in a full Bears stack with Cohen and Gabriel.
  2. Jordan Reed … Hold your nose, but Reed should be the only Redskin option you want today.
  3. Ben Watson / Dan Arnold … Hold the phone, I don’t think its a Josh Hill game.

DEFENSE:

  1. Saints … Sacks and turnover upside here and at a huge discounted price.
  2. Cowboys
  3. Bears

 

 

TONIGHTS SHOWDOWN PLAY:  TAYSOM HILL

This is a Taysom Game ladies and gentlemen (wait, aren’t they all you say?).  Nope.  This one in particular.  The Saints should ground and pound all night long against Atlanta and with Deion Jones out Taysom might even hit a play action pass overt the middle to Josh Hill or Austin Carr which would completely make my day.  Look for Taysom to get more traditional runs this week as the Saints on a short week will need all the bodies they can get on the ground.  I am predicting two scores from Taysom rushing and his first HUGE run for a score.

 

About Steve Renner 655 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.