The Ambush – NFL Week 7 DFS plays from Steve Renner

NFL DFS Week 6

Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week.

WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS?   These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays.    In some cases, they’re locks in cash, in some cases they’re locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups.

Last Week:   Cousins (Just OK), CMC (Horrible), Crabtree (Money), Reed (WTF), Bengals D (Dagger)

 

WEEK 7 INTRODUCTION

Holy smoke balls, what a set of late breaking news we had at the end of this week with the Cleveland Browns sending Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville on Friday and it immediately sent everyone into a zombie frenzy of over-reaction to the news as if we now have a #1 running back that is going to light the world on fire for min price in Nick Chubb.   Chubb is very talented, comes from a good program for RB at Georgia and should become the feature back for the Browns along side Duke Johnson as a pass catching RB going forward.  The Browns this week are facing the laughing stock of the league defensively in the Tampa Bay Bucs who fired their DC Mike Smith (RIP #Smitty, you will always have a place in the Hall of Fame for all the yards you have allowed to Drew Brees) earlier this week after another horrific showing defensively against the Falcons last week.

So now everyone is all over Chubb.  Stop.   Just stop.

First off.  The match-up is not amazing for Chubb.  Tampa is so much of a funnel defense to the run it’s not crazy.  They’re top 5 overall statistically against the rush in raw yards but near the bottom in DVOA.  The reason for the gap?  They are ATROCIOUS in the secondary and everyone thrashes them through the air.  So this means that even if they’re not a stone wall defensively up front they’re not gonna likely turn around and hand off to Chubb 20+ times this week.  Furthermore, I was on and remain on Duke Johnson, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku as viable options for Cleveland this week.  Let’s break these guys down for a moment here.

  1. Jarvis Landry at only 6500 this week on FanDuel is in a fantastic spot.  He saw 10+ targets vs the Bucs last year and should see 10+ again this week and should do a better job catching against the Bucs secondary than last week vs the Chargers.  Lets lock him in for 7+ catches and 80 yards here.   He is the #1 target in this offense.
  2. David Njoku is only 5700 on FanDuel and faces the WORST defense against Tight Ends and is increasing his volume now that Baker has taken over the QB role in Cleveland.  Njoku at a week position is going to be 50%+ in cash and likely 40%+ in tournaments this week.  He’s the #2 target in this offense.
  3. Duke Johnson is the pass catching RB and someone to consider in tournaments this week if we go heavy on this game to play for a shootout (which I’m not high on) or decide to play TD variance and fade Landry/Njoku.  Johnson’s skill set on the road should help Baker on third down situations.

All three of those guys are in GOOD positions this week and I’ll admit that Chubb is about equal to Johnson in terms of how good of a spot he is in.  So the reasons for the love affair with Chubb are as follows

  1. People are sheep
  2. People want to believe in a rookie, the new shiny toy, the guy who had 2 huge runs vs the Raiders a couple weeks ago (and nothing else)
  3. He is dirt cheap at 4800 on FanDuel (which really isnt that cheap honestly) and 3800 on DraftKings (where almost everyone is close this free week — TODD GURLEYS PRICE WENT DOWN!, but I’ll get to DK in a moment)

So lets stop here for a minute….   Folks are saying Chubb is a MUST play in cash because of his price.  He is a “free square” that opens everything up for you…

Uhhh.  Well, I already had two high priced RB and a high priced WR in my cash lineup — but okay.  What’s he gonna open up now?   Ask yourself this on in a cash lineup.

  1. Are you playing Jarvis Landry, the #1 target in the Browns offense and a PPR machine against the worst secondary in the league?
  2. Are you playing David Njoku, the #2 target in the Browns offense and facing the worst defense against TE in the league?
  3. Are you correlating them with Baker Mayfield who isn’t that expensive in his own right?

If you answered yes to 2 of the 3 or even all 3 … then stop … You want to make it 3 or 4 Browns in cash?  A team that is not built to blow teams out?   Yes?  Do you think Cleveland (a road dog, who hasn’t won a road game in ….. how long???) is going to go into Tampa (honestly not an easy place to play at 1pm) and win 41-3?  31-10?  31-28?   I don’t…  But let’s say they do.  Lets say they blow them out 41-10.   You get a TD from everyone, you did it.  You nailed the Cleveland Browns stack……   In cash……   Cool.   You also just played the chalk in a tournament.

Orrrrrrrrrrrrr….  Maybe it’s a shootout on both sides and it’s that last score, the 31-28 type….   Well.  The other side of this game is 2% owned.  And the other side is ONE SIDED on the passing attack as their ground game will do NOTHING this week.  So why aren’t you playing Winston, Evans, Godwin, Jackson, Brate????

Play the game out.  Don’t be a sheep.

But he is so cheap!!!!   Sure.  The guy could have just an okay day and still get you 2x or 3x even on DK.  I get that.  But you just threw away a spot thinking that it allows you to spend up elsewhere and that’s the wrong way to think about this.  Identify the optimal lineup and for me I find that there’s a TON of value at Wide Receiver this week and the sure thing 20+ guys are at running back this week and those don’t include Chubb.  So do I really wanna throw away a high upside position like RB this week with a guy just because he is cheap and now he will go from 2 carries to 12 carries?

No.  I don’t.

 


THE AMBUSH PLAYS

RB – Alvin KamaraImage result for alvin kamara animated gif

LG Andrus Peat is out. The most critical component to the Saints offense are the Guards. Always have been. The rushing game takes a hit with this. Brees vertical game takes a hit. He will be throwing everything out to the edges. The ball will be out quick.  Brees may throw 40 times this week with most being short passing game throws.   So why am I recommending a RB in a spot where the running game won’t be working?  Simple, with Ingram back the role of Kamara does change slightly but in a POSITIVE way for him.  Now he gets matched up more against LB or slot corners or even against the outside CB — as I think he will on the very first play of the game.   There are three higher priced RB this week in addition to AK41, and they are Gurley, McCaffery and Elliott and Gurley/Zeke are going to be the heavy chalk plays making CMC and AK41 slightly lower owned.  But I want AK41 coming off a BYE and in a spot where I expect the Saints to have to throw the ball a ton which really boosts his PPR value on a site like DraftKings this week.

WR –  Stefon Diggs (Couldn’t Find a cool GIF of him anywhere on the internet.  Weird…)

The Vikings air game should be able to control the game this week against the Jets and we all know how great Thielen has been getting 100 yards every single week.  This is not an indication that Thielen isn’t a good play this week, but more that I think Diggs is equal to him for 1k+ less.  Stefon Diggs has become the road target for the Vikings for whatever reason.  He’s hauled in 10, 11, 9, 8 receptions in their last four road games dating back to last season compared to just 3, 4, 3 and 6 in his last four home games dating back to last season.  While matchup does explain some of it, this isn’t a spot where the match-up is bad.  So Diggs should definitely be able to eat this week with Thielen having to draw attention and Dalvin Cook once again being out (more passing!!!!!!!).  I just pray Rudolph doesn’t vulture his TD this week in the red zone.   10 catch / 100 yard day for Diggs to beat out Thielen this week.

TE – David Njoku

Eating the chalk here this week.  The Tampa defense has yielded the most points to Tight Ends this season by a country mile and David Njoku has been the most reliable blanket lately for Baker Mayfield.  I expect Jarvis to be popular as well but don’t let that take you off Njoku this week on your main lineups at TE.  The guy is in a fantastic spot this week and I pray that folks are playing Chubb and now getting cute and taking themselves off Njoku.

DEF:  Jacksonville Jaguars

DeShaun Watson has been hit 70+ times this year.  Jacksonville is angry and back at home.  They should compile tons of sacks here this week, turn the ball over and I honestly think they have a shot at 20+ points this weekend.

QB – Jameis Winston

I am listing him last for a reason.  He’s definitely the least confident of all the AMBUSH plays considering what my notes and thoughts early in the week were.  But with the whole world losing their ever loving mind for a Hue Jackson led team in Cleveland, I am really really really loving the prospects of the Winston and Tampa side shocking everyone who is flocking like sheep to Best Buy on Black Friday to purchase a 65″ TV that has shitty resolution but is on sale for only $199 where it was supposedly listed for $599 before.  BUT HEY.  IT HAS APPS ON IT.  ITS THIN.  ITS LIKE 500%% OFF.  THIS TV EVEN HAS REAL TIME AIR YARDS STATISTICS AND HAS A NEXT GEN STATS ALERT THAT POPS UP WITH COMMENTARY FROM SOME MIMOSA DRINKING DOUCHEBAG ANALYST THAT DOESNT WATCH THE GAMES WHENEVER A PLAYER WHO HAS A WICKED SPARQ SCORE IS ACTIVATED AND COMES INTO THE GAME TO RUN 80% OF HIS ROUTES FROM THE DIRTY SLOT……   SHEEP!!!   DONT BE SHEEP!!!

Continue reading below for my real thoughts on Quarterback this week BTW….

 


THOUGHTS ON GAMES THAT DO VERY LITTLE FOR ME

TEXANS at JAGUARS … There’s some logic in thinking that this game could be a sneaky high scoring game.  Why?  Well, Bortles should be able to get the ball to Westbrook and Cole this week and they can run circles around the Texans secondary and this is a game where the Jaguars defense should get to Watson a ton and hand the ball back to the Jaguars frequently.  The late news about Carlos Hyde getting traded to Jacksonville does nothing to downgrade the Jaguars rushing attack in my mind for this week but it’s very interesting moving forward.  That said, I won’t be going to the offensive skill players here, there’s too many risks and I can’t trust Watson to step up and beat up the Jags defense this week because he doesn’t have a strong running game to rely upon.  But I will have a longshot lineup that has some Watson-Hopkins with Westbrook on the other side.  This is not a main lineup play outside of the Jags D who should get 4-5 sacks this week.

PATRIOTS at BEARS … I think this is a ground and pound game between Sony Michel and yes, Jordan Howard.  Take the under here.

LIONS at DOLPHINS … Call me when Kerryon Johnson has two games where he rushes for over 100 yards in consecutive weeks then we can talk.  I like the Lions D and that’s it.  Brocktober is over.

BILLS at COLTS … Like Shady McCoy a lot I do.  Hate Kelvin Benjamin too.

 


 

MY POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN

Bold plays are the guys I am heaviest on in their specific position/tier…

QUARTERBACKS

Okay, Winston is NOT someone I am using on my main lineup this week, let’s be honest about that.  CJ Beathard for his price is someone I’m really in love with here this week and the best “GOOD” ………  sigh, yeah, okay, he’s OKAY, ….. Quarterback is Kirk Cousins who should throw for 300 and 2 scores this week without any issues.   That said, it’s a week to not overthink Quarterback too much.  If you got a guy you love, play him….

My bold pick here this week (not really that bold I guess) is that no Quarterback returns 30 points on the main slate.  In fact, I would not be shocked if everyone was under 25 points this week but also think most QB will be above 15 points.  So if we’re all in that 16 to 24 range — and the pricing is pretty atrocious as it is on DraftKings — then we really aren’t going to have much of a difference maker here this week.  It’s a okay spot to play Quarterbacks naked — even in tournaments.

  1. CJ Beathard – Price value play on both sites.   Fine for main lineup because the Rams are on their third straight road game this week and this is a BAD spot for the Rams.  Beathard to Goodwin and Kittle could be a HUGE game this weekend.  This is my cash Quarterback.
  2. Kirk Cousins
  3. Carson Wentz
  4. Jameis Winston — Ambush GPP play

 

RUNNING BACKS

RB who I expect to hit 20 and could hit 30-35 this week…

  1. Akvin Kamara … All in Kamara who should come in under 10% owned at his price which is laughable.
  2. Todd Gurley III … No need to explain him here.  I’m okay fading with the idea that you go AK and Zeke
  3. Ezekiel Elliott

MID RANGE … Guys I want 15 to 20 upside from.

  1. Shady McCoy … Shady is either going to go out in the 1st quarter with some shitty injury which leads to the Derek Anderson folks getting theirs or he’s going to have his final GREAT game in the NFL this weekend.
  2. Jordan Howard … Yep.  The guy you all SHIT on all last week is going to be the focal point for Chicago this week.  He gets in the box.
  3. Duke Johnson, not Nick Chubb … HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD
  4. Corey Clement … Sneaky play here as I am not on CMC but I am on this game heavily so Clement is the one RB to consider for me.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Guys to carry your lineup and to start your build around at WR.

  1. Stefon Diggs … Love the Diggs pivot off Thielen for much less this week.  Gimme 8 for 140 and 2 scores Diggy….
  2. Adam Thielen
  3. Jarvis Landry
  4. Robert Woods … How do pivot off Gurley?  Not by going blind and fading the whole Rams offense — even though they are on their THIRD straight road game and will LOSE this week.

MID RANGE

  1. Robert Woods … How do pivot off Gurley?  Not by going blind and fading the whole Rams offense — even though they are on their THIRD straight road game and will LOSE this week.
  2. Marquise Goodwin … Correlation with Beathard and also with Woods or Gurley on this game.
  3. Chris Godwin … Evans will likley draw Ward which really opens up the field for Godwin and DJax
  4. John Brown .. Brown is the big play guy on Baltimore that can torch the Saints this week.
  5. Willie Snead … Snead is the steady 5 catches for 56 yards and maybe a lucky red zone TD this week.
  6. Dede Westbrook

LONGSHOTS

  1. DJ Moore .. Has been featured more and more in the Panthers offense and was a Philadelphia High School stand out.  He’s had ball control issues a little bit but is a dynamic threat that can take the top off a bad Eagles secondary and is dirt cheap.
  2. Jordan Matthews … I was higher on Agholor early this week but I’m kinda shifting to JMatt and Clement for the Eagles along with Ertz.
  3. Laquon Treadwell

 

TIGHT ENDS

  1. David Njoku … I have killed this horse by now.  Play him.
  2. Kyle Rudolph
  3. George Kittle
  4. Zach Ertz

LONGSHOT / VALUE (DK)

  1. Dallas Goedert
  2. Ben Watson
  3. Charles Clay

 

DEFENSES

  1. Jaguars … High sack upside this week.
  2. Lions … Brocktober ends folks.
  3. Colts
  4. Saints

 

STACKS

  1. Minnesota Vikings — Cousins, Thielen, Diggs, (R.Anderson)
  2. Tampa Bay Bucs — Winston, Godwin, Jackson (J. Landry, D. NJoku)
  3. San Francisco 49ers — Beathard, Breida, Goodwin, Kittle (Gurley or Woods)

Milli-Maker Types

  1. Philly Eagles — Wentz, Clement, Ertz, Goddert — DOUBLE TE ACTION … (Moore, CMC)
  2. New Orleans Saints — Brees, Kamara, Ingram (J.Brown)

 

FADES and BOLD Calls

  • Zach Line vultures a Kamara touchdown
  • Lions roll over the Dolphins
  • Alvin Kamara finishes 1st or 2nd among RB
  • Nick Chubb finishes 9 carries, 47 yards, 0 TD and 1 fumble.
  • Tampa Bay wins 33-27 in OT
  • Fading …………………….
    • Kerryon my Wayward Son Johnson
    • Bears WR and T.Cohen
    • Bills WR
    • Nick Chubb — DUH
    • Peyton Barber … Seriously folks, passing game here.
    • Lat Murray
    • Water … Let the record indicate … I was on this before OBJ … But I only fade water on Sundays…..

 

About Steve Renner 631 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.