The Fuego Pit – Week 1 NFL GPP plays

QUARTERBACKS

Marcus Mariotta – This game has the second highest total of the week with the potential for a shoot-out. Mariotta faces a poor Oakland defense and should have no problem moving the ball. He also has new touchdown machine, Erik Decker at wide receiver. Add him to the mix with Delanie Walker, Rishard Mathews and Demarco Murray and Mariotta has plenty of weapons. He is one of the few QBs I would play naked without a WR or TE stack. He could get 4 touchdowns mixed all over including running one in.

Matt Ryan – Coming off a devastating Super Bowl loss, Ryan is probably stewing to get back on the field. Traditionally Super Bowl losers don’t do too well the next season. I am not buying in to that narrative just yet. Ryan should be lower-owned than most of the big name QBs with just as much upside

Andy Dalton on DraftKings – Dalton had two just ok games against the Ravens last season. He only threw one touchdown in each meeting. However, Tyler Eifert is healthy and should get in the end zone this week. In addition, Baltimore will have a tough time defending A.J. Green who too should find the box. I think Dalton is a safe play this week if looking to save money at QB.

HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD

Mathew Stafford – Everyone is talking about the other QB in this game Carson Palmer. He should do well, but I think Stafford can equal or better him this week. This game has an O/U of 48 with only a 2.5 spread favoring the Cardinals. We could see another shoot-out here with Stafford being very low owned.

Other QBs in play – Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins

 

RUNNING BACKS

DeMarco Murray – All the Derrick Henry talk I have been hearing is a little premature in my mind. Murray handled around 80% of the workload last year, and I expect that to continue barring injury. He also played a key role in the passing game, catching over 50 passes last season. With a lot of ownership going towards the “Big Two”, David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell. Murray is in a great spot to equal their production at lower cost and ownership. I wouldn’t even mind pairing him with Mariota in this game.

LeSean McCoy – Once again this year McCoy is priced $1000 or more lower than the Big Two running backs. We saw last season he had similar ceilings to both. He will go much lower owned than he should especially with a lot of ownership going to Mariotta. Play him for his ceiling.

Devonte Freeman – Freeman had seven games last year with over 20 DK points. Here is another running back with a big ceiling, going against a less than stellar Bears defense. The Falcons should win this game, and Freeman will help them get the lead, then keep the lead late.

HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD

Darren Sproles on DraftKings – Only $3900 on DK, Sproles should be able to pay that price back easily. LaGarrette Blount didn’t look comfortable in this offense during the preseason and won’t be in the game when the Eagles are throwing. DraftKings is a full PPR site, so that should give Sproles a decent floor, as I see him catching at least 4-5 balls. If he could somehow sneak in to the end zone, could really pay off.

Other RBs in play – Carlos Hyde, chalk on DK for a reason, he is only $4600. Todd Gurley will be chalky for sure facing the porous Colts defense. Isaiah Crowell, if the Browns can keep it close, he will be heavily involved.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

AJ Green – My best stud WR play of the week is AJ Green. He has a great history against rival Baltimore and I don’t see them stopping him on Sunday. This isn’t the Ravens defense of old and they have trouble with the deep ball. Green should eat against the Baltimore secondary this week.

Rishard Mathews/Erik Decker – The hard part here is picking which Titans wide-out will have the better game. Mathews was littered with targets last season, including 32 over the last three weeks. Decker is a touch down scoring threat every time he steps on the field. I think you could play either one and expect a decent game, especially if it shoots out like expected.

Michael Crabtree/Amari Cooper – I like Crabtree over Cooper this week versus the Titans. He was the main red zone threat in Oakland last season and should be again. Although he led the league in drops last season, his red zone production was double that of his teammate. I like Cooper slightly less, but he has the explosiveness and speed over Crabtree.  As usual Crabtree is the cheaper option with similar production.

HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD

Terelle Pryor – Pryor comes to the Redskins with high expectations this season. But how quickly does he mesh with his new QB Kirk Cousins? It could happen this week as Pryor has a good matchup versus cornerback Jalen Mills. He also has a significant height advantage and if can take advantage could break out week one.

 

Other WRs in play – Jordy Nelson, Doug Baldwin, Pierre Garcon, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Sterling Shepard if OBJ is out

TIGHT ENDS

Zach Ertz – Criminally underpriced, he is almost a must play on DraftKings at only $3500.

Delanie Walker – Walker is also underpriced on DK at $4300 almost $2000 less than Greg Olsen. As I mentioned before, the Titans have a lot of weapons including Decker who may take targets from Walker.

HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD

Eric Ebron – Ebron became one of Matt Stafford’s favorite targets last season with 11 games with five or more. My biggest concern is he had zero touchdowns last year. I am betting some regression is coming and some of those targets turn to TDs.

 

DEFENSE

Jacksonville –  Fanduel only – Another miss priced player, they are close to a lock for me on Fanduel at only $4100. There are only three teams lower than them and by only $100. Yet, on DraftKings, they are the third most expensive defense at $3700. We always need to spot big price differences on each site and take advantage of them when we can. They should be a much improved defense  and are facing basically a rookie in Tom Savage

LA Rams – One of the chalk defenses this week, but they are in a great spot against the Colts

HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD

Cincinnati Bengals – Actually, I am not sure how risky this is going to be. They play at home against the Ravens, whose offense does not scare me (Unfortunately, since I am a huge Ravens fan). Joe Flacco missed all of the preseason with a knee injury. I don’t think he will be on the same page as new wide out Jeremy Maclin. In addition, the Ravens running game leaves quite a bit to be desired. I see Flacco throwing a couple dumb interceptions as usual. Maybe we can get lucky and Cincy runs one back.

 

KICKERS

Pick one that fits your lineup. Who the heck knows. If I must… Blair Walsh is min price at $4500. Justin Tucker is always a good play if you have money left over. Otherwise, pick kickers from games with good weather and high over/unders.

Fuego Steve
About Fuego Steve 299 Articles
Fuego Steve has rapidly become one of the best DFS players in the industry for MLB, NBA, and the NFL. Just over the past year he has won numerous GPPs, including three qualifiers. Fuego was a live finalist at the 2017 & 2018 Fanduel Basketball Championships. Mainly a tournament player, he specializes in multi and single-entry gpps, roster construction, game theory, qualifiers, short slates and has a knack for projecting ownership percentages.