TNF-MNF Scout Optimizer Analysis

Each week there's questions around should you play the Thursday Night Football contest and thus play the Thursday-Monday full slates on DK and FanDuel.  This week is a little unique on DraftKings as there are four games that are not part of the Main Slate, where as normally it is only two.   With DK removing the Sunday Night Football game and the presence of a Sunday morning London game we have a little more opportunity for lower ownership by playing the Thu-Mon full slate.

It used to be that Thursday games were chalk on the Thu-Mon slate and you should always fade because they're typically bad games and people only roster players in them to simply give themselves more entertainment purposes while watching.  That's trending the opposite direction and anyone who stacked last week's TNF game benefited tremendously on the full week slate.  However, let's not jump on that TNF stack train so quickly and take a step back and analyze if you really want exposure on the TNF-MNF full slate beyond what your core plays will be and determine how the Scout Score powered Optimizer this week is telling us to play.

 

Quarterbacks

Must start:  Drew Brees.   Brees has some narrative against the Dolphins because he has always felt dissed by them passing over him because of his shoulder injury prior to the 2006 season.  In two starts against the Dolphins Brees has played really well and will surely be up for this game in London as he welcomes Willie Snead his safety net back into the passing attack (although likely limited somewhat).  Brees should be lower owned on the TNF-MNF slate than Russell Wilson and so of the guys in play he's the best GPP upside play if this game turns into a shootout (which I doubt but I do think Brees has a solid game).   He is the HIGHEST projected score on our Optimizer this week at 24.42 DK points.  That includes ALL the Sunday games on the main slate…    For comparison at 7200 he is going to give you easy 3x value and you can always play him naked (no RB/WR/TE)

Consider:   None ….   Brees is the top play at Quarterback on the TNF-MNF slate.  If you are playing a QB on this slate, it is him.

Fade:   Russell Wilson.   Wilson is gaining a ton of more chatter this week than Brees and is $100 more and projected to score less than Brees.  This makes sense given that Seattle should be winning easily and have little reason to throw the ball late in the game.

 

Running Backs

Must start:  None… 

Considerations:   Kareem Hunt and Jay Ajayi are the only two running backs on this slate worth playing.  They are 6th and 7th overall in total projected points on DK and both have decent matchups.  Hunt faces a Redskins defense who has done well versus WR's in the first few weeks but given up plenty of touches on the ground and Hunt is legit a top 3 RB right now.  Hunt gives you an end of week hammer as well and worst case is expensive enough that you can late swap to someone else on Sunday if you want.  Ajayi has gamescript potentially going against him and has been bruised up quite a bit.  However, with the flop last week against the Jets (side note: stop forcing RB's against the Jets.  Play WR's vs them), some will be off him and on the Dolphins WR's.  The Saints secondary is going to be sneaky good down the stretch this year and you'll want RB's against them as they're undersized up front.

Fade:   Ty Montgomery….   There are better options on the main slate by far than Montgomery who being on the TNF game will be far too popular

 

Wide Receivers

Must start:  None….

Considerations:   Michael Thomas, DeVante Parker and Davante Adams …   Thomas is a fantastic stack with Brees and Parker is a good correlation play in that game.  It's unclear if Lattimore is playing for the Saints and if he is out again then the Saints will be lacking someone physical to matchup on Parker.    Adams is the best WR play in the TNF game and there aren't many WR's to consider on the SNF/MNF slate given main slate choices.

Fade:  Jordy Nelson.  Jordy at home is always a popular play, however I suspect this game is low scoring and Adams draws a better matchup

 

 

Tight End

Must start:  None…..

Consideratoins:  Travis Kelce, Julius Thomas and Zach Miller…   Kelce has a fantastic matchup against Washington on Monday Night but not good enough to warrant forcing him into your lineup.   Kyle Rudolph and Rob Gronkowski will be popular choices come Sunday — which should keep Kelce's ownership down somewhat.  If you have the salary then he is a great solo play in that game.  Julius Thomas is the wild card for the Dolphins this week and at $2,900 on DK should provide you nice value with good TD upside against a Saints defense who doesn't have good cover LB's.  Zach Miller is an interesting one who I don't personally love but has a 13.4 projection from the ScoutScores this week.

Fade:   None

 

Defense

Consideration:  Seattle.  The Seahawks will be a popular choice on the main slate this week and this is the best spot to get lower ownership on them as someone will play the Packers tonight and others will forget who they picked by the time Sunday morning rolls around.   They draw the highest projected this week from our optimizer.

 

 

Locked in on the Optimizer

  • Locked in Drew Brees and nobody else from the TNF, London, SNF or MNF games

 

The result

QB:  Drew Brees

RB:  Ezekiel Elliott

RB:  Lev Bell

WR:  DeAndre Hopkins

WR:  Cooper Kupp

WR:  Mike Wallace

TE:  Evan Engam

FLEX:  Dalvin Cook

DST:  49ers D

 

Needless to say, I love that lineup for TNF-SNF cash and single entry contests this week…

 

 

 

 

 

 

About Steve Renner 667 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.