Week 11 RB Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Todd Gurley (DK – $8,400/FD – $8,700): Gurley had a season low 11 rushes in Week 10 due to game score. He did make plenty of big play vs. the Texans (6.2 yards per rush and 11.3 yards per catch) leading to 136 combined yards with six catches on 17 touches. Todd has over 100 combined yards in seven of his last eight games with ten TDs on the year. He averages 23 touches per game. The Vikings are 2nd in the NFL defending RBs (1,022 combined yards with only three TDs and 49 catches). This isn't the best matchup for Gurley. His volume of touches will keep his floor high while needing TDs to produce a winning score at this level. Fade unless you want to be against the grain.
Leonard Fournette (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,300): It's been a month since Fournette has been Fantasy relevant. He missed two games due to an ankle injury and a one game suspension. Last week with the Jaguars having multiple injuries on the offensive line, Leonard only had 46 combined yards with two catches on 19 touches while sitting on the sideline most of the fourth quarter. He scored seven TDs over his first six games with three games with over 100 yards rushing. The success of T.J. Yeldon (229 combined yards with ten catches on 33 touches) may hurt his value in the passing game going forward. The Browns are very good against the run (3.1 yards per rush with RBs scoring two rushing TDs). Fournette will be the best RB to play against Cleveland since Week 1 (Le'Veon Bell – 47 combined yards with three catches). This doesn’t look like an impactful matchup, but the Browns are 0-9 with teams over 30 points in five of their last seven games. Right kind of play with the Jaguars expected to play well defensively in this matchup. Possible three TDs in this game if Jacksonville creates favorable field position due to turnovers.
Mark Ingram (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,200): Since the end of the Adrian Peterson experiment, Ingram has 569 combined yards with seven TDs and 16 catches over five games. His success pushed him to 6th in RB scoring while averaging 23.6 touches per game over this span. Even with his great run, Mark does split playing time with Alvin Kamara (146 to 122 over the last five games). The Redskins are just below league average defending RBs (1,094 combined yards with 11 TDs and 45 catches). Washington allows 4.1 yards per rush. Playing well with value on all three downs. It's tough to dismiss him with New Orleans just starting to find their rhythm offensively. The better play by the Saints’ defense does help the run game. Hot player, but can his ticket come in again?
Kareem Hunt (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,600): Over the last four games, Hunt has 396 combined yards with 16 catches while averaging 18.5 touches per game. Kareem hasn't scored a TD in his last six games. He started the year with six TDs in three games while gaining over 100 yards rushing in four of his first five games. The Giants are 23rd in the league defending RBs (1,464 combined yards with seven TDs and 41 catches), Over the last two games, RBs have 415 yards vs. New York with three TDs and ten catches. The Giants' defense is fading, which points to an uptick game for Hunt. Possible long TD with an excellent chance at 100+ yards rushing, which leaves him on TD away from delivering an impact score.
LeSean McCoy (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,000): The Bills' defense couldn't get the Saints off the field in Week 10 leading to McCoy only seeing 11 touches for 60 yards with three catches. It was his second straight short games (12/25 in Week 9). LeSean doesn't have a TD on the road in 2017 while averaging 66 yards per game. The Chargers can have risk vs. RBs (25th – 1,612 combined yards with five TDs and 59 catches). Four teams have over 200 yards from the RB position vs. LA (KC – 216 combined yards, PHI – 265 combined yards, NYG – 207 combined yards, and NE – 258 combined yards). Buffalo named Nathan Peterson the starting QB this week. This won’t help the Bills’ offense over the short term unless they have success running the ball. Not ideal due to his lack of scoring.
Melvin Gordon (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,800): Last week the Chargers' RBs had 192 combined yards with two TDs and 11 catches vs. the Jaguars, but Gordon struggled to make an impact (42 combined yards with five catches). Melvin has two games with over 100 yards rushing in 2017 while flashing upside in the passing in three games (7/65, 6/58/2, and 9/67/1). He averages 20.2 touches per game with eight TDs. The Bills fell to 31st vs. RBs after struggling in their last three games (OAK – 151 combined yard with two TDs and 13 catches, NYJ – 209 combined yards with two TDs and five catches, and 326 combined yards with five TDs and five catches). This points to Gordon being active this matchup with chance to deliver an impact game and multi TDs.
Alvin Kamara (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,500): Kamara is back drafting Mark Ingram up the RB ranking over the last five weeks. After two strong games in Week 9 (152 combined yards with two TDs and six catches) and Week 10 (138 combined yards with a TD and five catches), Alvin is now the 7th ranked RB in PPR leagues. He has a TD in three straight games (four during this stretch) while averaging 11.8 touches per game on the year. Over the last five games, Kamara had 14.2 touches per game. New Orleans will use their RBs more than any other team that the Redskins faced in 2017. He's now priced where 25 Fantasy points is needed at a minimum to be in play in the daily games. In the right offense if you want to ride the hot team.
Jordan Howard (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,400): Howard doesn't have a TD in his last five games with fading value in the passing game (4/28) over this period. Last week he only had 15 rushes for 54 yards, which came after seeing 84 touches over his previous three games. Jordan has three games with over 100 yards rushing with two coming on the road. The change at QB hasn't help the Bears to move the ball well. He no longer has the threat of Tarik Cohen stealing from his upside. Cohen only has eight touches over the last three games. The Lions are 27th in the league defending RBs (1,281 combined yards with eight TDs and 56 catches). Over the last three games, Chicago only has five TDs with two coming from their defense. High volume player if game score works in his favor, but the lack of TD production does limit his explosiveness.
Adrian Peterson (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,600): Peterson is batting .500 after four games in Arizona. He played well vs. Tampa (26/134/2) and San Fran (37/159), but he was a losing play against the Rams (33 combined yards with a catch) and the Seahawks (42 combined yards with a catch). Over this span, Adrian has 24.75 touches per game highlighted by 39 in Week 9. The Texans have the best defense in the league vs. RBs with a high level of success against the run (203/709/1). Not a great matchup with questionable QB play. the change to Blaine Gabbert is an upgrade for the Cardinals' offense in Week 1. Still too tough to trust at this level even with a high number of touches expected.
Jerick McKinnon (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,400): McKinnon gained short yards per rush in his last three games (3.4, 3.6, and 3.2). Over the last five games, Jerick averaged 18.2 touches per game leading to 471 combined yards with four TDs and 22 catches. He has three games of value (26.60, 25.90, and 26.20 Fantasy points in PPR leagues). Twice over the last three games, he almost had same playing time as Latavius Murray (35 to 31 and 31 to 30 in snaps). The Rams played well vs. RBs in the last three games (9.00, 17.40, and 11.20 Fantasy points) after showing risk in four games earlier in the year (41.10, 34.80, 37.50, and 44.50 Fantasy points or 876 combined yards with nine TDs and 26 catches). This should be a good matchup for the Vikings' RBs. His sliding salary puts Jerick back in play in Week 11.
Chris Thompson (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,800): Thompson is the 8th highest scoring RB in PPR leagues after ten weeks, but he's come up short in his last two games (7.10 and 9.70 Fantasy points in PPR leagues). Chris averages 10.9 touches per game with his best success coming when he scores. His only two rushing TDs came in Week 2 (3/77/2). His quickness is a huge edge if he gets into the open field. RBs have 58 catches for 469 yards and a TD on 82 targets against the Saints. Two teams used their RBs at high level vs. New Orleans (NE – 13/143/1 and CAR – 10/105). The Saints have risk vs. the run as well (4.7 yards per rush), but they've only allowed four rushing TDs to RBs. Thompson will be active in this game with 20+ Fantasy points within reach.
Ty Montgomery (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,800): Montgomery showed a spark last week (68 combined yards with a TD and two catches), but he suffered a rib injury. Ty is listed as questionable for this week's game and he's not more than coin flip to play. It's too bad as he was positioned to get his full-time job back with Aaron Jones injured. I would stay away from Montgomery this week unless he get a clean bill of health.
Lamar Miller (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,500): Miller hasn't rushed for over 75 yards in any game in 2017. He averages 18 touches per game. All four of his TDs came in two games (TEN – 131 combined yards with two TDs and four catches and SEA – 73 combined yards with two TDs and three catches). Over the last two games with Tom Savage behind center, Lamar has 152 combined yards with four catches on 25 touches. The Cardinals are league average defending RBs (1,149 yards with five TDs and 53 catches). Rushers gain only 3.6 yards per rush with seven teams gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing. More risk than reward.
Jamaal Williams (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,600): Williams will be the new shiny toy in the free agent pool in the season long games this week. With Aaron Jones out for an extended period of time and Ty Montgomery battling a rib injury, Jamaal will be the lead back for the Packers in Week 11. Last week he has 21 touches for 74 yards and a catch while being on the field for 35 of 66 plays. The Ravens moved to 12th in RB defense after playing better in their last two games (3.20 and 17.70 Fantasy points). Baltimore allows 4.2 yards per rush with RBs scoring only six TDs. This defense is improving plus Brett Hundley hasn't been able to deliver enough from the QB position to make this offense relevant. His question value in the passing game and matchup would keep me away in the daily games.
Orleans Darkwa (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,900): Darkwa ran the ball well in four of his last five games (8/69/1, 21/117, 9/35, 16/71, and 14/70) with some value in the passing game (9/55), but he only had one TD over this stretch. Orleans averaged 15.4 touches over his last five games. Game score is the key to his opportunity. The Chiefs are league average against RBs (1,197 combined yards with eight TDs and 32 catches). Kansas City allows 4.8 yards per rush while being one of the better teams in the league defending RBs in the passing game (32/201 on 50 targets). Can’t trust with New York expected to chase on the scoreboard.
Kenyan Drake (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,600): Drake has 24 touches over the last two games leading to 196 combined yards with a TD and eight catches. He's scored 17.40 and 17.20 Fantasy points in those games, which points to more upside going forward. Kenyan been on the field for the exact same amount of plays (62) as Damien Williams since Jay Ajayi was traded. The Bucs are 29th in the NFL defending RBs (1,301 combined yards with nine TDs and 54 catches). Tempting based on his direction and matchup, but he's still in a split role. Based on Tampa's lack of success vs. the run on the road (MIN – 37/125/1, ARI – 35/160/2, BUF – 33/173/2, and NO – 32/151/1), Drake should score a TD with competitive yards.
James White (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,100): Last week White was only on the field for 11 plays, which must have been a matchup decision. His playing time has diminished in each of his last six games (43, 35, 29, 23, 20, and 11 snaps) with Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead gaining value in the last two games. James did score his second TD of the year in Week 10 while receiving only five touches. He's on pace for 82 catches for 894 yards and four TDs. The Raiders showed failure risk defending RBs against the Redskins (7/156/1) and the Chargers (10/75/1). Too many options in the backfield to play White in the daily games.
Doug Martin (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,100): The Bucs gave Martin 20 rushes last week, but he gained only 51 yards while failing to score a TD in his fourth straight game. Doug gained fewer than 4.0 yards per rush in each of his last five games (3.3 yards per rush on the year). Over his last three games, he only has one catch for four yards on four targets. Miami allows 4.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring six rushing TDs (only one allowed at home). The Dolphins' run defense allowed 294 yards rushing in Week 10 with two TDs while also showing risk in their two previous games (58/260). Hate his direction and low value in the passing game. Even with a TD, his final total will have a donation smell.
Damien Williams (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,200): While Kenyan Drake is trending upward, Williams has been a losing option on early downs in the last two games (7/14 and 9/19) while showing a spark in the passing game (8/47/1 on nine targets). Damien split touches over the last two games, but that should change going forward with Drake flashing more explosiveness. I see minimal value on early downs with as split role on passing downs. Avoid in the daily games.
Duke Johnson (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,600): After nine games, Johnson ranks 14th in RB scoring in PPR leagues. He regained his snap edge (48 to 36) over Isiah Crowell last week after losing the battle in his previous three games. Duke had a season high ten carries in Week 10 leading to 54 yards while also picking up six catches for 34 yards. His last TD came in Week 5. The Jaguars have strength at CB so Cleveland will look for their RBs in the passing game to move the ball in this matchup. Overall, RBs have 35 catches for 334 yards and two TDs on 48 targets against the Jaguars with most of the damage coming last week (11/104/2 on 15 targets). Bad matchup even in a chaser game due to a poor QB. I would pass on him in the daily games.
Javorius Allen (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,800): On the stat sheet, Allen just looks like a bad play. He gains only 3.6 yards per rush and 4.8 yards per catch yet the Ravens continue to get him double digit touches in most game. On the year, Javorius averages 16.1 touches per game with five games with five catches or more. Only twice this season has Allen gained over 3.5 yards per rush (CLE – 14/66 and CHI – 10/49) with both of those games coming at home. RBs have 44 catches for 371 yards and three TDs on 56 targets against the Packers. Decent floor at this level due to his pass catching ability. The lack of scoring upside by Green Bay does paint a losing picture in Week 11. Only a flier if you are shopping at this level.
Marshawn Lynch (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,900): Lynch finally delivered a playable game in Week 9. He gained 63 yards on 16 touches with two TDs and two catches. The Raiders had him on the field for 37 of 63 plays. After ten weeks, Marshawn is the 40th highest scoring RB in PPR league while averaging only 12.9 touches in his seven full games played. The Patriots do have risk vs. RBs in the run game (189/934/4 – 4.9 yards per rush) giving Lynch a chance at an increased role in this matchup. Possible TD with game score being the key to his touches.
Ameer Abdullah (DK – $4,200/FD – $6,200): Abdullah has a TD in two straight games, but his results remain short in Week 9 (57 combined yards and a catch) and Week 10 (55 combined yards with a catch). On the year, Ameer averages 16.4 touches per game with short yards per rush (3.5) and minimal value in the passing game (15/91). The Bears are 24th vs. RBs (227/890/8) in the run game. They allow 3.9 yards per rush with the last five teams averaging about 31 rushes per game. The Lions struggle to run the ball with low upside in rushing TDs. Abdullah has a low enough salary where volume of chances and a bump in catches puts him range of being a gamble at this level.
Dion Lewis (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,700): The Patriots have shifted to Lewis over the last four games plus his value was helped last week with Mike Gillislee for being inactive. Dion had four TDs over his last six games while averaging 14 touches per game in his last four starts. New England barely looks his way in the passing game (10/58), which is surprising considering his success in seven games in 2015 (36/388/2). The Patriots rotated him with James White and Rex Burkhead in Week 10 with Dion seeing middle RB snaps (21 of 70 plays). The Raiders allow 3.9 yards per rush with RB running in six TDs. More of tweener with his playable valued tied to TDs.
Isaiah Crowell (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,500): Crowell played his best ball in 2017 over the last two games (213 combined yards with two TDs and five catches). Over the last five games, Isaiah averaged 17 touches per game while being in a dead heat with Duke Johnson for snaps (176). The Jaguars have a rising defense, but they have shown risk vs. the run (4.6 yards per rush with RBs scoring eight TDs). The Browns ran the ball well in the last two games (55/316/4), which may be a sign of success in this matchup. Tough to trust plus he's listed as questionable this week with a shoulder issue.
Latavius Murray (DK – $4,000/FD – $6,600): Over the last three games, Murray has 55 touches for 228 yards with two TDs and a catch. He's gaining only 3.3 yards per rush on the year with barely a pulse in the passing game (6/38). Latavius is the power back in the offense with possible upside in TDs at the goal line if the Vikings call his number. The Rams can be beat on the ground (237/1062/8) with most of their bad games coming on the road (SF – 168 combined yards with three TDs and seven catches, DAL – 218 combined yards with two TDs and four catches, and JAC – 232 combined yards with two TDs and 11 catches). Dark horse backend filler.
C.J. Anderson (DK – $4,000/FD – $6,000): Anderson doesn't have a TD in his last seven games while averaging only 12.9 touches per game over this span. His only game of success came in Week 2 (154 combined yards with a TD and three catches). Over the last two games, C.J. was on the field for 47 plays compared to 35 by Jamaal Charles, and 45 by Devontae Booker. The Bengals allowed 3.9 yards per rush with three rushing TDs to RBs. Over the last four games, Cinci allowed 147 rushes for 596 yards and two TDs pointing to fade in their defense in the run game. Too many cooks in the Denver backfield to take this dance with questionable QB play.
Joe Mixon (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,900): Mixon has been boring over his last two games (86 combined yards with four catches), but he did score a TD in each game to help his value in the season long games. The Bengals held the ball for fewer than 20 minutes in both of these games. Joe is the 25th ranked RB in PPR leagues after ten weeks while averaging 12.5 Fantasy points over his last three games. The Broncos slipped to 11th in the league vs. RBs after two bad games (358 combined yards with seven TDs and nine catches). On the year, Denver allows 3.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring four rushing TDs. Priced right with a stronger opportunity with Jeremy Hill out for the season, but can the Broncos’ defense really be this bad?
Alex Collins (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,500): Collins struggled to find running room in two of his last three games while playing two top defenses (MIN – 10/30 and JAC – 13/43). Over his last five games, Alex gained 338 combined yards with three catches with about 14 touches per game. Collins doesn't have a TD in 2017 while out snapping Javorius Allen in just one game. More of a season long play due to his failure risk. The Packers allow 3.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring six rushing TDs.
Samaje Perine (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,400): With Rob Kelley placed on IR, Perine will get his chance to be the lead rusher on Washington over the last seven games of the year. On the year, Samaje gained only 3.2 yards per rush with minimal value in the passing game (6/55/1). Last week he did flash (60 combined yards on ten touches with a catch). Number two back in this offense with the goal line chances. Only a gamble, but he may shine down the road. The Saints can be beat on the ground so a rushing TD is reasonable outcome of Kirk Cousins doesn’t steal his thunder.
Rex Burkhead (DK – $3,600/FD – $5,700): The Patriots gave Burkhead top RB snaps in Week 10 while leaving Mike Gillislee in street clothes. Over the last two games, Rex has 146 combined yards with ten catches and a TD. He'll surf his way between Dion Lewis and James White for playing time on all downs while projecting to be the top option at the goal line if Gillislee is left out of the mix again. Almost too good to be true…