Week 13 RB Report
Matchup Risk/Against the Grain
Tough Matchup with Limited Upside
Alvin Kamara (DK – $8,400/FD – $8,500): Kamara pushed his way to third in RB scoring after his fourth straight plus game. Over this span, Alvin scored 119.4 Fantasy points in PPR leagues or 594 combined yards with six TDs and 23 catches. This works out to 2.06 Fantasy points per touch in his last four games (1.67 Fantasy points per touch on the year). In comparison, Le'Veon Bell averages 0.724 Fantasy points per touch and Todd Gurley averages 0.975 points per touch. Kamara averages 11.9 touches per game (14.5 over his last four games). In Week 3, Alvin was only on the field for 17 plays against the Panthers leading to 42 combined yards with a TD and three catches. Carolina is 5th in the league defending RBs (1,322 combined yards with five TDs and 57 catches) with the Saints (188 combined yards with a TD and seven catches) and the Patriots (148 combined yards with a TD and 13 catches) having the most season at RB. Alvin is the best back in the NFL in 2017, but his touches are well below a workhorse back. Hot as hell while playing at home means ride this money train for another week.
Todd Gurley (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,800): Gurley has only been a steady option at RB over the last three games (19.60, 14.60, and 16.80 Fantasy points) while failing to rush for over 100 yards in his fourth straight game. Todd averages 22.4 touches per game with over 100 combined yards in eight of his 12 games. In Week 7, Gurley had 154 combined yards with a TD and four catches vs. the Cardinals. Arizona is 15th in the league defending RBs (1,405 combined yards with eight TDs and 68 catches). LA had one of their better games of the year in London on the ground from the RB position against the Cardinals (240 combined yards with a TD and five catches). I like this matchup as man coverage vs. the pass will create space at the second level of the defense for Todd. Possible 30+ touches leading to an impact game.
Mark Ingram (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,000): Ingram had tough sledding last week vs. the Rams in Week 12 (36 combined yards and two catches on 13 touches). Over his previous six games, Mark had 724 combined yards with eight TDs and 19 catches. New Orleans has turned more of the passing targets at RB to Alvin Kamara over the last four games leading to only six catches for 28 yards on eight targets for Ingram. Mark averages 5.0 yards per rush with 19.2 touches per game over his last seven starts. Carolina allows 3.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring four rushing TDs. Possible 100 combined yards with a TD, but this game doesn't look favorable for his direction and skill set. In Week 3, Mark had 86 combined yards and two catches against the Panthers.
Leonard Fournette (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,700): Fournette struggled for the second time over his last three games in Week 12 against the Cardinals (42 combined yards with three catches). Over his last three games since he hurt his ankle, Leonard averaged only 3.0 yards per rush with no TDs. Jacksonville continues to give playing time to T.J. Yeldon over the last three games (65 plays) lowering Fournette's snaps to 55.3 percent over this stretch. On the year, Leonard has four games with over 100 yards rushing and six games with 20+ touches. The Colts can be hit or miss vs. the run (4.0 yards per rush) with RBs scoring 11 TDs. Indy held RBs to fewer than 100 yards rushing in their last four games while the Jaguars gain 4.6 yards per rush on the year with 11 rushing TDs. Fournette regains some of his mojo back this week, but he'll need two TDs to reach his salary bucket. In play while being a lower percentage own due to his recent path.
LeSean McCoy (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,200): McCoy has been a frustrating own over the last month due to three short games (12/25, 60 combined yards with three catches, and 79 combined yards with four catches). LeSean only has five TDs on the year with three coming at home. On the year, he's gaining 1.5 yards per rush lower than 2016 (5.4) with fade as well in his yards per catch (6.4). Last season McCoy had 108 combined yards with a TD and six catches in his only game against the Patriots. New England allows 4.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring eight TDs. Chaser type game fits him well in the passing game, but Travaris Cadet stole nine catches for 60 yards in the last two games. LeSean plays his best ball at home so I wouldn't dismiss.
Melvin Gordon (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,900): The Chargers played well over the last two games while dominating the Bills and the Cowboys, but Gordon has boring results over this period (168 combined yards with a TD and three catches). His playing time drops to about 58.9 percent over his last three games with Austin Ekeler gaining momentum. In his first seven games, Melvin was on the field for over 80 percent of the offensive snaps in his six full games. The Browns are 9th in the league against RBs (1,438 combined yards with six TDs and 54 catches). Cleveland allow 3.3 yards per rush, so this isn't a great matchup. Volume of touches will be his friend. His drop-in catches over the last five games (10/51) lowers his floor below and playable value at this level.
Christian McCaffrey (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,300): McCaffrey had his best day of the season in the passing game vs. the Saints in Week 3 (9/101). Christian needs 41 catches over the last five games of season to reach 100 catches. Over his last three games, Christian showed a spark in the run game (27/151/2). He averages 7.6 targets per game. RBs have 64 catches for 548 yards and two TDs on 92 targets against the Saints. Trending forward with five TDs over his last seven games, but he needs a huge game to reach his inflated salary. A showdown between two early round draft picks.
Tevin Coleman (DK – $7,000/FD – $6,500): Coleman played well in Week 12 (19/97/2), but he fell three yards short of three bonus points plus he didn't have a target. Over the last three games, Tevin averaged just over 20 touches per game with a TD in each game. Devonta Freeman was cleared from his concussion on Wednesday, which lowers Coleman's opportunity. Overall, he's on pace (1,101 combined yards with ten TDs and 26 catches) to beat his success in 2016 (941 combined yards with 11 TDs and 31 catches). The Vikings are second in the league defending RBs (1,170 yards with four TDs and 56 catches). Overpriced for his expected split role with a tough matchup.
Kareem Hunt (DK – $6,900/FD – $6,900): Hunt hasn't reach his projections in his last eight games, which matches his scoreless streak. Kareem has been a disaster in his four starts (9.80, 10.10, 10.70, and 3.60 Fantasy points in PPR leagues). Last week Hunt had a primo matchup vs. a Bills' run defense that allowed 11 rushing TDs over the previous three games. Kareen finished with only 26 yards and a catch against Buffalo on 12 touches. He looks dead in the water, but Hunt still averages 20 touches per game. The Jets climbed to 6th in the league against RBs (1,551 yards with nine TDs and 49 catches). New York allows 4.1 yards per rush, but six teams rushed for over 140 yards due to 29.4 rushes per game. Not horrible matchup, but poor offense play by the Chiefs points to an avoid in the daily games even with a sliding salary.
Jordan Howard (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,500): As expected, Howard had a tough time in Week 12 vs. the Eagles. He finished with nine touches for 22 yards and two catches while being on the field for 47 percent of the plays run by the Bears. Jordan has been an every other week player over the last six weeks (36/167, 21/65, 23/102, 15/54, 15/125/1, and 7/6). Over his last seven games with a downgrade at QB, Howard only has one TD. The 49ers allowed the second most Fantasy points to RBs (3.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring six rushing TDs). Workhorse opportunity this week with a good chance at a TD and 100+ yard put him within a second TD of being in play.
Lamar Miller (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,600): Miller is the 12th highest scoring RB after 12 weeks with only two games of value (29.10 and 22.30) with the top game coming against the Titans (131 combined yards with two TDs and four catches). Lamar averages 18.7 touches per game while being on the field for 73.8 percent of the RB plays in Houston. The Titans play well vs. the run (3.5 yards per rush and four rushing TDs allowed) with some risk at times vs. RBs in the passing game (66/574/3 on 93 targets). More of a tweener in the daily games due to questionable play at QB.
Carlos Hyde (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,000): Hyde has under 75 yards rushing in eight of his 11 games while scoring only four TDs on the year (none in the last five games). Last week he had 23 touches for 68 combined yards and seven catches. He's led the 49ers in targets in four of his last five games (8, 9, 11, and 13) leading to a career high in catches (49) despite gaining only 6.0 yards per catch. Chicago is just above league average against RBs (1,467 combined yards with nine TDs and 56 catches). The change at QB should help San Fran move the ball and Carlos is top scoring option in this offense. His pass catching sets a high floor even with minimal explosiveness. Viable option in GPPs if a Fantasy owner is looking for value at RB.
Devonta Freeman (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,500): Freeman was knocked out of Week 10 after two snaps leading to two carries for three yards. Over his last four games, Devonta has 54 touches (13.5 per game). He scored five TDs in the first four games and none in his next five games. He's been cleared from concussion protocol, so Freeman will back in a split role with Tevin Coleman. Sliding salary gives him a chance, but his direction points to an avoid until we see a spark.
DeMarco Murray (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,200): At some point, the Titans need to park DeMarco on the bench. Over his last six games, Murray gained only 179 yards rushing on 73 carries (2.4 yards per rush) with four TDs. He's looked better in the passing game (21/186/1) over this span. Last week DeMarco was on the field for 58 percent of the RB snaps in Tennessee. In Week 4, he had 35 combined yards with two catches on nine touches against the Texans. Fading player, but he still averages 14.5 touches per game. Can’t trust.
Dion Lewis (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,300): Lewis ran the ball well in Week 12 (15/112), but he didn't score the needed TD to support his salary. Over the last six games, Dion gained 444 yards with two TDs and eight catches while averaging 12.7 touches per game. Lewis doesn't have a game with over 50 percent of the RB playing time in New England with short value in the passing game. The Bills lost their way defending the run in Week 9 (41/194/3), Week 10 (48/298/6), and Week 11 (35/146/2) before righting the ship last week vs. the Chiefs (19/55). New England will force the Bills to defend the whole field so Lewis and the run game should be productive with multiple TDs. Upside matchup, but his chances and TDs aren’t a lock to support his higher salary.
Latavius Murray (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,500): Murray has been the better back in Minnesota in four of the last five games (18/113/1, 19/39/0, 17/68/1, 19/95/2, and 20/84/1) with minimal value in the passing game over this stretch (2/9). Latavius averaged almost 18 touches per game over his last five starts. The Falcons allow 4.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring five rushing TDs (three over the last four games). Power runner with goal line value, but impact yards tends to be an issue with him being in a split role. Without two TDs or over 100 yards rushing, Murray is a tough dance in the daily games.
Jerick McKinnon (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,100): I've taken a dance with McKinnon a couple of times over the last couple of weeks, but he left me with Fantasy regret. He's gained under 3.7 yards per rush in five straight games while averaging 13 touches per game with one TD. His best value comes in the passing game (28/221/1 on 37 targets over his last seven games). RBs have 69 catches for 524 yards and three TDs on 92 targets against the Falcons. Fading player with a decent floor thanks to his ability in the passing game.
Rex Burkhead (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,900): Burkhead was unimpressive last week (53 combined yards on 15 touches), but he scored two TDs with two catches to produces a playable score. Over his last four games, Rex has 236 combined yards with three TDs and 16 catches or 14.4 Fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. Burkhead has been on the field for 85 plays over the last three games compared to 75 by Dion Lewis and 46 by James White. RBs have 60 catches for 453 yards and a TD on 77 targets against the Bills. Rex has scoring and pass catching ability, but he gains only 3.9 yards per rush. Mid-teen type player who needs more chances to offer daily game upside.
Kenyan Drake (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,800): Miami will be forced to give Drake the whole show in Week 13 after Damien Williams suffered a shoulder injury vs. the Patriots. Over his last two games, Kenyan only had 61 combined yards with four catches and a TD. He did flash upside in Week 9 (104 combined yards and six catches) and Week 10 (92 combined yards with a TD and two catches). The Broncos have been crushed by RBs in three of their last four games (PHI – 205 combined yards with three TDs and a catch, NE – 153 combined yards with three TDs and eight catches, and OAK – 187 combined yards with two TDs and eight catches). On the year, Denver allow 3.2 yards per rush with RBs scoring 11 TDs. Priced in a favorable area if he does get 20+ touches, but a Fantasy owner has to remember Miami score only one rushing TD all year. Temper your expectations in the daily games.
Duke Johnson (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,700): Duke continues to get short touches in most weeks. Over the last two games, the Browns gave Duke 18 combined touches for 133 combined yards with a TD and eight catches. He's on pace for 73 catches for 1,049 yards and six TDs. The addition of Josh Gordon to the offense can only help the passing attack and create more chances for all players in Cleveland's offense. RBs have 68 catches for 557 yards and seven TDs against the Chargers. A chaser game suits him well so a TD and 20+ Fantasy points could be in the cards.
Adrian Peterson (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,400): Peterson didn't score a TD for the fifth straight game with the Cardinals. He did look better in Week 12 (99 combined yards with four catches) against a tough Jaguars' defense. Over his six games in Arizona, Adrian averaged 23 touches per game with one strong game (26/134/2). He struggled in Week 7 vs. the Rams (33 combined yards with a catch). LA allows the most Fantasy points to RBs (1,760 combined yards with 14 TDs and 58 catches). Favorable matchup and the Cardinals are getting better QB play from Blaine Gabbard. Possible TDs with 100+ yards thanks to plus carries.
Marshawn Lynch (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,200): Lynch had his best game of the season in Week 12 (111 combined yards with a TD and three catches), which came on a season high 29 touches. Over the last three games, Marshawn has 251 combined yards with three TDs and six catches. Game score worked in his favor for the first time since the first two games of the year. The Giants are just below league average defending RBs (1,755 combined yards with seven TDs and 53 catches). The Raiders are down a couple of WRs this week forcing them to rely more in their RBs. Oakland should play from the lead so Lynch should get 20+ touches with a TD and 100+ yards. Don’t be shy here and I like that he caught a couple of balls last week.
Jamaal Williams (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,700): Williams has been on the field for 104 of 122 plays over the last two games leading to high volume opportunity for the third straight game (21, 22, and 25 touches). Last week Jamaal had his best game of the season (135 combined yards with two TDs and four catches). He's gaining only 3.2 yards per rush in 2017 with better expected value in the passing game (13/152/1). The Bucs are 21st in the NFL against RBs (1,561 combined yards with 11 TDs and 57 catches). Very attractive options with the Bucs allowing over 30 points per game on the road. Williams just needs bigger holes in the road game.
Derrick Henry (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,400): Over the last three games, the Titans only gave Henry 34 touches. He gained 5.3 yards per rush compared to 1.8 yards per carry by DeMarco Murray over the same period, but Derrick still can't steal the starting job. On the year, Henry averages only 11 touches per game with three TDs and 4.6 yards per rush. It's time for Tennessee to give him a chance to shine. Only a bet on the come without more info about a bump in playing time. Last week he did out snap Murray 32 to 31 so maybe this is an underlying sign of upside. He did struggle in Week 4 vs. Houston (six carries for seven yards).
Orleans Darkwa (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,200): After trending forward over three games (257 combined yards with a TD and six catches) while averaging over 19 touches per game, Darkwa was only on the field 19 of 57 plays in Week 12. He gained 39 yards with a catch on 12 touches. New York benched Eli Manning this week to get a look at their younger RBs so that could be the case at RB as well. Oakland is 22nd in the league defending RBs (1,661 yards with eight TDs and 68 catches). Decent matchup, but his playing time could be at risk.
Alex Collins (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,900): Collins has been playable in the season long games in three of his last four games (143 combined yards with two catches, 71 combined yards with a TD and four catches, and 57 combined yards with a TD and two catches). Over the last two games with Danny Woodhead back in the mix, Alex was on the field for 69 of 126 plays while Javorius Allen still gets in his way (25 snaps). The Lions struggled vs. the run in four of their last six games (NO – 37/193/2, CLE – 33/201/2, CHI – 30/222/2, and MIN – 41/136/2). Excellent chance at a TD with a run at 100 yards. It really comes down to the play calling. Collins did pop up on the injury report mid-week with an undetermined issue.
Danny Woodhead (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,400): Woodhead looked better last week (45 combined yards with four catches on eight touches). The Ravens had him on the field for 22 of 67 plays. Passing catching back who will see his role increase each week going forward. Only a gamble in the daily games.
Bilal Powell (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,800): The Jets continue to rotate in three RBs, which makes all option useless in most weeks. Last week Powell was on the field for 35 percent of the RB plays compared to 45 percent by Matt Forte and 28 percent by Elijah McGuire. Over his last three games, Bilal has 30 touches for 156 combined yards with two catches. His only game of value came in Week 4 (190 combined yards with a TD and four catches). The Chiefs allow 4.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring ten rushing TDs. Ten teams have over 100 yards rushing vs. Kansas City. Too many options in this backfield unless Matt Forte can't go this week.
Devonte Booker (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,600): Booker led the Broncos in RB spans in Week 12, but he only had 46 percent of the playing time. Devontae finished with only eight touches for 33 yards and two catches, which was well below his expected value after shining in Week 11 (98 combined yards with five catches). Booker did have a TD overturned after his knee was down inside the one-yard line. Miami is 20th in the league defending RBs (1,544 combined yards with 11 TDs and 55 catches). Passing catching back, but he remains in a three-way split for snaps. The change back to Trevor Siemian at QB may help this offense. Rotational back with low scoring ability.
Isaiah Crowell (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,400): Crowell ran the ball well last week (105 combined yards with a catch on 17 touches). He's looked better in three of his last four games leading to 314 combined yards with two TDs and six catches while coming up empty in Week 11 vs. the Jaguars (11/18). Isaiah is listed on the injury report with a shoulder issue, but he should play on Sunday. The Chargers allow 4.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring seven rushing TDs. This Browns may not roll over in this game as most expect based on the recent defensive play by LA. Decent matchup with questionable upside in catches.
Ameer Abdullah (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,900): Abdullah struggled in his last two starts (78 combined yards with a TD and five catches on 22 touches). He has three TDs in his last four games, but Ameer has fewer than 60 yards rushing in each of his last seven starts. The Ravens climbed to 7th in the league vs. RBs (1,540 combined yards with seven TDs and 44 catches). Tough matchup with minimal value in TDs or catches. Abdullah missed practice on Wednesday with a neck issue. Wrong kind of dance in the daily games.
Frank Gore (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,400): Gore had a nice steady game in Week 12 (79 combined yards with a TD and two catches), which works for his salary level. Over his last four games, the Colts gave him over 19 touches per game. Frank only has three TDs in 2017 while being on the field for 50.1 percent of the plays run by Indy on the year. In Week 7, he had only 34 yards rushing on nine carries vs. the Jaguars. Jacksonville allows 4.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring eight rushing while showing improvement vs. the run over the last four games (2.9 yards per rush). Poor matchup with plenty of disaster risk.