Week 13 MNF Bets and DFS Picks

MNF Week 13 DK Showdown and Bets

Welcome to a single game installment of the Monday Night Football bets and DFS picks for the Washington vs Philadelphia game tonight on Monday Night Football.

Let’s first look at the DK Showdown from last nights Chargers-Steelers game to hopefully highlight a few things to take away for tonights game and other Showdown slates going forward.  The showdowns are obviously here to stay and growing and while I continue to state that they’re a mere lottery ticket (they are, dont try to say they aren’t) I will admit that the demand is justifying the supply (this article) and let’s figure these things out while an edge may still exist.

As with all DFS contests, if you are investing the time to come up with a strategy and an approach you should be entering it into the right contests and yes, there are single entry contests for the Showdown slates with good pay lines that you can focus in.  Give yourself a chance to remain profitable on the slates when you get something right and not have to sweat out someone with 150 $10 lineups who mixed and matched a bunch of combinations and ended up splitting the prize pool.  Any profit is good profit and that’s especially true on the showdown lottery tickets.

Be honest with yourself.  It’s gambling.

Last Nights Game …

What we expected to happen — We expected a higher scoring affair and we know that Ben and company are good at home in prime time games, but it was the depth of the Chargers who proved to be the better team in the DK Showdown slate.   The winning lineup in the $10 “prayer contest” on DraftKings had Keenan Allen (CAPT), Travis Benjamin, Antonio Brown, James Conner, Justin Jackson, Philip Rivers.

Two things stand out as items to take away here.  First off, both the Steelers and Chargers have plenty of offensive weapons to spread the ball around with and in this case you were going to get good value with players like Benjamin and Justin Jackson.  But we can also identify based on the type of game flow is going to be how to build a lineup out.  In this case it was an expected high scoring game and with that came a TON of plays for both teams and lots of catches.  With a full PPR on both sides it was clear early on that any lineup with 2 QB was going to be at a disadvantage because the QB’s need so much more to accumulate good value on the Showdown slates when the games are high scoring.  While that  might sound odd, think about a long drive of 75 yards with 8 plays and 7 of them are completions.   The QB is getting 4 points for the TD and however many passing yards at a lower rate than the RB-WR-TE are getting theirs.  Eating up 2 of only 6 spots with Quarterbacks when there is so much volume to skill position players really puts you behind the 8 ball.  We need the guys who get a high volume of touches and obviously the touchdowns.  The other thing of note here is who slides into the Captain spot.  Well, no shocker here.  You need the best player there obviously and Keenan Allen racking up 14 catches was by far going to be the best value in that spot.  For higher scoring back and forth games, I recommend getting a balanced lineup.  For the lower scoring games that you project, you’ll likely go more of a stars and scrubs (punts) type approach.  So let’s break down both methods tonight.

 

Washington at Philadelphia … Over/Under: 46, Spread: Eagles by 6, Weather:  Upper 40s, Slight Breeze 10-12 mph.

What we know about these teams statistically

The Eagles defensively are the lower ranked team despite being 6 point favorites here at home.  They’re giving up almost 5 YPC on the ground and 276 YPG through the air, both ranking near the bottom in the league overall, but the Redskins are … well, they’re just “challenged” offensively lets put it at that.  With Colt McCoy having a full 10 days to prepare though we might see him play a little bit better here this week and if the offensive line for Washington can give him time then he certainly should be able to move the ball through the air.  But make no mistake, Washington wants to ground it out and run the ball a plenty.

 

Washington DFS Depth Chart, listed in order of price from high to low

Image result for Chris ThompsonQB:  Colt McCoy

RB:  Adrian Peterson, Chris Thompson, Kapri Bibbs

WR:  Josh Doctson, Trey Quinn, Jamison Crowder*, Maurice Harris, Michael Floyd

TE:  Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis

How I think Washington attacks Philadelphia:   The Redskins in two games last year versus the Eagles had a hard time slowing down Carson Wentz and the Eagles passing game as Wentz completed just under 70% of his passes and threw for 6 TD against the Redskins and with Washington having a very good rush defense and the Eagles ground game thin we can likely expect Philly to be throwing the ball against the Redskins weakness (LB and Secondary in coverage in my mind).  The Redskins should lean on the ground game and look to attack a banged up Eagles secondary by making them tackle in the ground game.  I think Peterson is the guy to get a heavy volume today but Chris Thompson is the red zone threat that I have the most interest in today as he returns to the lineup.  The passing game is likely not going to have enough volume to go 3 deep (WR/TE) in a stack but Crowder and Quinn are both banged up and one of them being out opens up targets for Mo Harris or whichever one plays.  Either way, Doctson is the most reliable option based on prior games but don’t sleep on the Trey Quinn emergence.

 

 

Philadelphia DFS Depth Chart, listed in order of price from high to low

Image result for Zach ErtzQB:  Carson Wentz

RB:  Josh Adams, Corey Clement, Darren Sproles, Wendell Smallwood

WR:  Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, Nelson Agholor, Jordan Matthews

TE:  Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert

How I think Philadelphia attacks Washington:  Through the air as the Redskins have become a funnel defense.  Zach Ertz has had a few MONSTER games against Washington over the past years with games reaching 10, 13 and 15 receptions.  Obviously if he is having that type of game (and I think he will) tonight then he is your captain play.  Dallas Goedert paired with Ertz makes for an interesting salary relief and way to get different with your lineups today.  Golden Tate has yet to see enough consistent usage since coming over to Philly and he should start to see more but not quite yet (next week!).  Jordan Matthews is your sneaky play here today and my gut feel to score a TD despite seeing a decrease in snap counts with the addition of Golden Tate.  Of the two teams QB’s, Wentz stands out as the one to use tonight and pair with his passing targets.  The RB situation remains a mess and doesn’t get better with Sproles returning tonight.

 

Kickers?

I think this is definitely a game to consider kickers from.  The obvious play here is to use a kicker on the side you feel scores less TD, so don’t lock in a kicker with 3 skill position guys from the same team unless you think its a HUGE blowout, which I do not see tonight.  Closer game, leaning on Jake Elliot over Dustin Hopkins.

 

Image result for Jordan MatthewsBETS

  • Redskins +6
  • Over 44.5
  • Zach Ertz OVER 5.5 Receptions (HAMMER THIS)
  • Zach Ertz OVER 67.5 Recv Yards (HAMMER THIS)
  • Carson Wentz OVER 1.5 TD PASS
  • Carson Wentz OVER 23.5 Completions
  • Chris Thompson OVER 50.5 Rush+Recv Yards
    • Player to score first Props
      • Zach Ertz +700
      • Chris Thompson +1600
      • Carson Wentz – RUSHING TD +3300
      • Jordan Matthews +3500 (Longshot call of the night)
    • Player TD Props
      • Jordan Matthews +600 (Longshot call of the night)
      • Zach Ertz -130
      • Trey Quinn +190
      • Chris Thompson +250
About Steve Renner 657 Articles
ScoutDFS - MLB, NHL and NFL DFS Expert.2018 NHL WHFC Live Finalist. Author of the Dongers Club. Defender of all things New Orleans Saints.